Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[IDO]

Very disappointed with the output this morning. Back in early December I said it was 1-0 to the seasonal models and if the output remains unchanged then its going to be 2-0. I say this because lets remember earlier on there were conflicting forecasts from the seasonal models which predicted a positive NAO, AO to those other forecasts which predicted a negative NAO/AO especially after xmas into Jan.

 

The straw to clutch is the warming of the stratosphere and how this may impact the stubborn PV.

Yes it is disheartening when so many positives were banded about in November that the winter up to mid Jan will be a dud for anyone South of Birmingham. If this is the best on the table when the indices are in our favour it does not bode well for upcoming winters. I know what Ian Brown would say...

[TEITS]

 If this is the best on the table when the indices are in our favour it does not bode well for upcoming winters. I know what Ian Brown would say...

Have they been in our favour though? If that is the case then why did the seasonal models predict such a positive NAO/AO winter? Also I do recall Accu weather winter forecast for Europe also predicting a winter above average.

[IDO]

Have they been in our favour though? If that is the case then why did the seasonal models predict such a positive NAO/AO winter? Also I do recall Accu weather winter forecast for Europe also predicting a winter above average.

I think that in general terms the Met forecast is the standard background signal for the UK for every winter, so we should expect Atlantic driven, av to above temps, etc; so we have to look for OPI,SAI, strat, etc and they were promising for a colder winter period.

The expectancy for a cold winter is always very low in the UK so when we get positive signals it raises hope. Dec 2010 is a once in a lifetime event and the other cold spells we have had of late are also rare so when the background signals can't get us cold then maybe we have moved into another cycle of less cold winters.

Only musing as there remains time for a turn around, although waiting for backend cold is never a preference for most cold seekers.

[h2005__uk__]

looks like we can write off the whole winter, another snowless one

 

Any chance of 30C temps in the near future?

 

:wink:

[Gustywind]

Looks like January is pretty much a write off then in terms of a sustained cold spell for England, very disappointing.

Had some great January cold spells growing up - 79, 84,85,87. Think 95 was ok but not amazing for my area. Other than that Ive not seen a cold/snowy Jan until 2010, 2013 was also great for my area. Hope I don't have to wait 15 years for another very cold January month!

We still have Feb I guess.

Fair play to the Met, looks like they are well on top of forecasts this winter. Back to the drawing board for the OPI crew though.

[h2005__uk__]

 Indeed, the coldest spells in my youth were always in February.

 

When I was at school (I'm 27 so we're talking before 2006) most snow seemed to fall in late winter.

 

And of course in more recent years I recall most snow falling in the latter half of winter too - this definitely applies to the Jan - Mar of every year between 2007 and 2013, with the exception of 2011 where most snow fell in Dec 2010.

Edited December 31, 2014 by h2005uk

[Gustywind]

Have they been in our favour though? If that is the case then why did the seasonal models predict such a positive NAO/AO winter? Also I do recall Accu weather winter forecast for Europe also predicting a winter above average.

I mentioned yesterday my view that we are within an overall warm/westerly phase of weather currently in the UK, characterised by a positive NAO and strong winter vortex. Very similiar to the 90s/00s. The return of the 'mod winter'!

The switch happened in the spring of 2013 following the incredible cold spell that spring. A similiar thing happened in the 80s when a cold phase ended with the Jan87 spell and we moved into a phase of warmer/wetter and positive NAO weather.

The upside is we get better summers! The downside is the reduced cold/snow occurrences during winter.

Fwiw I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Bartlett in Feb, followed by cooler weather in March.

Edited December 31, 2014 by Gustywind

[snow freak]

so apart from a few frosts so far this winter it has been very disappointing (again) with no real sign of cold as we head into January 2015.  So much for the SSW which seems to have not made an appearance either.  Knowing our luck it will appear in April and everyone will be saying if only this had happened in January or February.  Always goes the same way in this country. we also have a belated winter which comes when it is too late and no good to anyone.

I mentioned yesterday my view that we are within an overall warm/westerly phase of weather currently in the UK, characterised by a positive NAO and strong winter vortex. Very similiar to the 90s/00s. The return of the 'large teapot,?

The switch happened in the spring of 2013 following the incredible cold spell that spring. A similiar thing happened in the 80s when a cold phase ended with the Jan87 spell and we moved into a phase of warmer/wetter and positive NAO weather.

The upside is we get better summers! The downside is the reduced cold/snow occurrences during winter.

Fwiw I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Bartlett in Feb, followed by cooler weather in March.

Don't even mention Bartlett.  That will be the end of me.

[IDO]

You know things are bad when twitter is awash with pictures like this...

 

 

...In Italy.

 

Link: https://twitter.com/brainsandblonde/status/550204327928004608

Edited December 31, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Osbourne One-Nil]

We still have Feb I guess.

 We still have January to be fair; it's December.

[JOPRO]

Ignor button on overtime this morning,and it's the same people as last year! Normal tosh if it t384 and mild it will verify and winters over for the next mellinium, but if it's t384 and cold it's FI,La la land won't happen like that etc etc etc etc. once again people are making sweeping statements, The weather will do what it wants we are not locked in to cold or mild. We are not in winter 2013/14 last time i checked. I have already seen 10 times number of frosts that I saw last year and have had a dusting of snow on the ground for 6 days,yet 12 days ago I read that there would be no cold until at least the new year, now the same people are writing off jan and feb! Still the weather can make fools of us I suppose. And it probable will me,but chins up coldies here's to a good deep cold spell in the last 2/3rds of winter and hopefully the on set of an early spring to keep the mildies happy!

Edited December 31, 2014 by JOPRO

[Bristawl Si]

I'm saying nothing.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Is that going to be a New Year's Resolution?

[Bristawl Si]

Is that going to be a New Year's Resolution?

If you'd like it to be.

I'm actually a cold and snow lover but that seems well out of reach for the forseeable and i think the recent model runs indicate that, at least for down here.

Maybe later in January things will change.

Enjoy NYE. Regards BB

[snow freak]

I think that in general terms the Met forecast is the standard background signal for the UK for every winter, so we should expect Atlantic driven, av to above temps, etc; so we have to look for OPI,SAI, strat, etc and they were promising for a colder winter period.

The expectancy for a cold winter is always very low in the UK so when we get positive signals it raises hope. Dec 2010 is a once in a lifetime event and the other cold spells we have had of late are also rare so when the background signals can't get us cold then maybe we have moved into another cycle of less cold winters.

Only musing as there remains time for a turn around, although waiting for backend cold is never a preference for most cold seekers.

yes December 2010 was a very rare event but that winter as a whole was hardly exceptional.  the rest of that winter was mild.  the preceding winters of 2008-2010 were far better snow wise with more snow events occurring.  The fact that UK winters go in mild/cold cycles still doesn't excuse the fact that we can go through winters without seeing even one lousy day of snow lying.  Anyone would think this country lies near the equator rather than a few hundred miles from the Arctic with the terrible mild winters we usually get.

[snow freak]

Very much all doom and gloom on here this morning. But is going to be a full on zonal pattern for the next 10 days or so? A ray of hope on the latest GEFS Ensemble run.hints at Scandinavian block at 144hours ! Anyway back in blighty, has any one not seen snow lying or falling for the whole year, I suspect some in the south may well have to record that horrible record.

C

I did see snow falling on 26th December (how lucky am I?) but it was too marginal and quickly turned back to rain.  I think this winter is once again going to be a non starter with even any snow events being too marginal for most of us.  What a waste of a winter once again.

[IDO]

Even the experts are surprised by the poor output compared to the pre-winter indices:

 

  MJVentrice
For the highest Eurasia October snow rate on record, 2014 is clearly disappointing for the -AO. http://t.co/dDSrAaWHTH
31/12/2014 11:40

 

So a big Steward's Enquiry as to what were the factors that over rode the promising setup for this winter.

Edited December 31, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Gustywind]

We still have January to be fair; it's December.

Yes but in terms of a sustained cold/snowy spell for England, there's nothing to suggest one is likely in January. Note I'm not ruling out the odd cold day here and there, however a cold/snowy spell of say 5 days plus is a low probability based on met guidance, current models and longer term mild trend.

That's a realistic view IMHO, a pessimistic view would be to say winter as a whole is over, which clearly isn't the case.

[wolvesfan]

Even the experts are surprised by the poor output compared to the pre-winter indices:

 

  MJVentrice

For the highest Eurasia October snow rate on record, 2014 is clearly disappointing for the -AO. http://t.co/dDSrAaWHTH

31/12/2014 11:40

 

So a big Steward's Enquiry as to what were the factors that over rode the promising setup for this winter.

With all due respect isn't it a little early to be righting off this years opi?,it is still the 31 December after all.

Edited December 31, 2014 by wolvesfan

[Gustywind]

No wolvesfan I don't think it is. The OPI called for a negative AO winter, driven by a strong Siberian high. Both these factors are wrong thus far, mainly due to the surprising weakness of the Siberian high.

The question is why has it been far weaker than expected.

[wolvesfan]

No wolvesfan I don't think it is. The OPI called for a negative AO winter, driven by a strong Siberian high. Both these factors are wrong thus far, mainly due to the surprising weakness of the Siberian high.

The question is why has it been far weaker than expected.

My point is though its still very early in the winter,thers still time for the Russian high to become a driver this winter,of course time will tell.

[mushymanrob]

cannot see what there is to like about zonal weather, I mean grey wind and rain? how can anyone like low pressure,

 

I mean sunny and mild, people may like that, say bartlett

  

I do, the ever changing skyscapes, the incoming frontal systems, the clearance to showery...

why are long term model predictions treated with such reverence ?. Sometimes the best guess monthly CET forecasts by experts are 3/4c degrees out. FI remains 144

Respect for the knowlegable...

[IDO]

CET for December +0.8c with one day to go.

 

So not really cold.

[mushymanrob]

CET for December +0.8c with one day to go.

 

So not really cold.

I bet it is for me locally, temps just getting above zero now for the first time since sunday, several sharp frosts and snow still lying.

Ive had my wintry snap, it can get mild now for the rest of winter lol.

I see alot of fractious posts in the md thread, and this is the reason that one should keep a level head and not believe the hype.

[Mapantz]

so 1 or 2 days then

 

Ok

 

Followed by

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.gif

 

So the Daffs will think twice ...eh?

I'm not sure about yours? But mine have been up for a month or so.