Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uzeZJUsT0UU this will cheer some of us up

[knocker]

Where people get the cold on the 00 GFS run is beyond me apart from short transitional bursts. Looking at the five day averages out to T384 the only ones that are not above average temps are right at the end of the period. Should have gone to Specsavers.

[Mapantz]

this will cheer some of us up

That depresses me. That was the week of the most cataclysmic cock-up by the MO that I can remember. Dorset was put on a red warning for up to a foot of snow. People went out and cleared the shops of food, and necessities as it looked bad. The MO removed the warning while we were all asleep, and we woke up to barely a dusting.

[Dorsetbred]

That depresses me. That was the week of the most cataclysmic cock-up by the MO that I can remember. Dorset was put on a red warning for up to a foot of snow. People went out and cleared the shops of food, and necessities as it looked bad. The MO removed the warning while we were all asleep, and we woke up to barely a dusting.

Interesting if you watch the graphical display for what it's worth there was never a time on the graphic that we would get "nailed". It attacked and went all the way around, SE - Above M4, SW and then back above M4. Interesting to look back on it now though, and seemingly less frustrating than the never-everland called "FI".

[Mapantz]

Interesting if you watch the graphical display for what it's worth there was never a time on the graphic that we would get "nailed". It attacked and went all the way around, SE - Above M4, SW and then back above M4. Interesting to look back on it now though, and seemingly less frustrating than the never-everland called "FI".

Yup. That's why cold & snowy charts don't even excite me at 48 hours out. To go from a red warning to a dusting in the space of a few hours is the cause of that.

[Spah1]

Models showing more cold air for USA. It really annoys me they enjoy cold plunge after cold plunge. Red hot in Summer, Snowy in winter. If only!

[snow..chance]

Models showing more cold air for USA. It really annoys me they enjoy cold plunge after cold plunge. Red hot in Summer, Snowy in winter. If only!

Parts of SE Europe experience the same. 30c and above Summers, plenty of storms then sub zero daytime and heavy blowing snow in Winter.

Edited January 3, 2015 by snow..chance

[Frosty.]

I know this much, if FI was looking as bad as the reliable it would be desperate in here but the light at the end of the tunnel is becoming brighter, I'm even more optimistic about mid month onwards than I was yesterday and I'm not talking about a mid Jan toppler, I'm talking about a more prolonged cold spell with a blocked Atlantic and our weather coming from between north and east later this month.

[hec1]

lol cold in f1, but will it verify? nope lol

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

lol cold in f1, but will it verify? nope lol

Formula 1's Finished lol

[nick sussex]

Jeez that GFS 18hrs run and its evil twin the GFS P were like some slow motion painful experience. I utterly despise this type of output!

 

Then after about 360 hrs of mind numbing boredom you get some stupid high sat over the UK! Now of course its just one operational run but in a nutshell that one run summed up the whole winter so far, boring,painful tedious crap!

 

I really feel for cold and snow lovers in the UK. Its now been getting on for nearly two years since some people saw any snow, its a dreadful state of affairs.

[karyo]

Jeez that GFS 18hrs run and its evil twin the GFS P were like some slow motion painful experience. I utterly despise this type of output!

 

Then after about 360 hrs of mind numbing boredom you get some stupid high sat over the UK! Now of course its just one operational run but in a nutshell that one run summed up the whole winter so far, boring,painful tedious crap!

 

I really feel for cold and snow lovers in the UK. Its now been getting on for nearly two years since some people saw any snow, its a dreadful state of affairs.

It is worth pointing out that the GFS stratospheric forecasts look worse than a few days ago so not much optimism for a sustained cold spell. 

[knocker]

Naughty vortex

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 2h2 hours ago

The strat vortex is not behaving. It splits next few days yet like an elastic band it 'snaps back' within days... pic.twitter.com/euHeQNrfqx

[nick sussex]

It is worth pointing out that the GFS stratospheric forecasts look worse than a few days ago so not much optimism for a sustained cold spell. 

Yes the good news just keeps on coming! I think hopes now rest on the MJO not sinking without trace.

[damianslaw]

Oh dear a lot of doom and gloom and general despondency with the models at the moment... I suspect may will already be thinking about next winter, one positive is the sun spot activity will be weaker next winter .

 

Just some thoughts on the impact of solar activity- I do think its more than a coincidence that we endured the wettest most atlantic dominated winter in recent memory last winter just when the current solar cycle period was at its peak and we are currently still in its hangover period, and the spike in activity before last winter coincided with the unsettled mild winter of 11/12 with a dip in activity coinciding with winter 12/13, also how the Jetstream decided to take a nose dive and meander during spring 08 just when we were entering a period of very low solar activity - with the low period coinciding with the cold year of 2010 and cold winter months around that time. Going further back the wettest autumn on record 2000 coincideded with the last peak period of last solar cycle activity and generally the wet mild winters of 97-05 all happened during a period when solar activity was very high - much higher than this current one. It may just been coincidence, but I think it is more than coincidence and for this reason I am already feeling positive for next winter.

 

This is not a winter over post - I would never do such a thing.

 

 

[Yarmy]

Just goes to show why it's not worth getting stressed over the SAI/OPI/CIA/FBI/DFS in October as at the moment it appears to have had the square root of flip all predictive power with what is being witnessed. Hey ho.

[Yarmy]

Naughty vortex

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 2h2 hours ago

The strat vortex is not behaving. It splits next few days yet like an elastic band it 'snaps back' within days... pic.twitter.com/euHeQNrfqx

Revelling in people's disappointment is somewhat unseemly, is it not? This isn't a football forum.

[legritter]

we could get lucky gang ,just spoken to my friends in toronto and their weather channel is in meltdown at the moment with upcoming cold snowy weather ,but they are saying mid month january a big pattern change could happen some where in northern hemisphere perhaps that somewhere is us ,i wont hold my breath but heres hoping .its been a long hard time watching this mild dross but nature does sometimes balance the books .heres too the best forum around 

[Bristawl Si]

What's really baffled me this winter season on NW has been posts constantly going on about favourable "background signals", and the most irritating "not going to plan" -

Sorry.......but what do these phrases actually mean?!

"Not going to plan"!!!!

Jeez, we're talking about the NH weather patterns here - is there a plan? Was there ever a 'plan'?!

C'mon....let's get real. The weather will do what it will do.

How many more times do us simple folk have to remind everyone we (the UK) are a tiny island in the NH, whose weather is influenced by the Atlantic, and just on a tiny few occasions, influenced by the continent to our south and east.

Phew! Had to get that off my chest.

[snowblizzard]

Models mayhem!

Unfortunately, we are well and truly stuck in this weather rut!

Very annoying pattern (+AO) (+NAO) resulting in constant flow from West to East!

Actually, not that dissimilar to last winter, but subtle differences which has meant much less in the way of very deep depressions, severe gales and copious amounts of rain! 

In my opinion, it's unlikely to change to any extent for about 2-3 weeks at least!

Occasionally, pressure rising to the South or South West resulting in a very mild TM flow!

That damn 'winter killing' Azores High!

Any weak signals indicating SSW, -AO and pressure rising to the NW should be taken with extreme caution and large doses of doubt!

Of course, there will eventually be a pattern change, but I think it will be too late and unlikely to please most on this forum!

Yes, still 2/3 of winter to go, but I really think we can forget anything in the way of prolonged severe cold & snow!

It's probably going to be the same story for most of North West Europe!

I really hope that I'm proved wrong!

But, tonight, I'm really losing hope and feel very depressed!

Edited January 4, 2015 by snowblizzard

[IDO]

It says it all when December was the coldest CET month of the year and it was still showing an anomaly of +0.8c. Though being in the south it appears to have been milder than that. With rising CO2's, the increased sun spot activity these have just squashed any other signals (SAI, strat warming).

 

It does appear this winter is slipping away and although a cold shot or two may pop up, the expectancy of some major cold has seriously diminished and it is probably back to the drawing boards as to the yin and yang of the weather drivers.

[bluearmy]

Something for everyone on this mornings GEFS. From rob wanting an early start on the gardens to most of you wanting to revel in snow filled fields and parks.

What does that mean ? Well it means forget the idea that whatever is coming mid month was going to be some kind of easy 'count down to cold'. It isn't. Too many varying options to even list the possibilities.

The mean and anomolys may look ok (haven't checked) and the initial northerly type may survive a that persistent mobility to remain the favourite at mid month but for how long and what to follow it - pine cones and seaweed may be more help judging by the gefs.

This post is predicated on the GEFS. The ECM may give a different feel. Let you know shortly.

[mushymanrob]

its quite clear now that we probably arent going to have a 'winter to remember', as cold evolutions have successivly failed to materialise. thats not ruling out though shorter snaps like the one some of us have just had, and im still thinking that there will be another.

time will tell, but if nothing becomes apparent in the next few weeks, then its unlikely to occur later in feb.

[mountain shadow]

Aye IDO

Back to the drawing board for seasonal forecasting.

SAI and OPI needing improved, certainly the SAI is a failure. With record snow cover I think we could have done better than this.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It's just the fact that we all live on this tiny island that's completely governed by the jet . We watch areas of southern Europe even toward turkey at time get true cold air and 850's of -10 when we bask in air of +2,3's . It makes me hate where I live . A country on our latitude shouldn't find it near impossible to get snow . We require the vortex to act in a disorderly mannor to deliver us some high lat blocking which is going against the grain to start with . Whilst USA has a standard cold trough digging south taking very cold air south . But yet that very very rarely happens here. What another crap winter