Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[MP-R]

Well if the N-W 10-dayer is to be believed for here it's definitely going to turn chilly after day 6. Perhaps not cold enough for widespread snow but as long as we get a decent enough PM shot there is no reason why falling snow isn't possible in the south. Such has happened in many a January PM shot. Beyond that a lot of ridging potential and beyond that again is anyone's guess. It's certainly not ideal for January but I really do feel that after Friday's unseasonably mild blip it will feel a lot more like January than November as it does now.

[Timmytour]

Could we be heading for a 1983 type of January, February?

From



to

Edited January 6, 2015 by Timmytour

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Cheer up. The model discussion is not all about snow:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420761600

 

METO forecasting fun & games for the North on the weekend. Models are hinting at an upgrade on this too.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Well if the N-W 10-dayer is to be believed for here it's definitely going to turn chilly after day 6. Perhaps not cold enough for widespread snow but as long as we get a decent enough PM shot there is no reason why falling snow isn't possible in the south. Such has happened in many a January PM shot. Beyond that a lot of ridging potential and beyond that again is anyone's guess. It's certainly not ideal for January but I really do feel that after Friday's unseasonably mild blip it will feel a lot more like January than November as it does now.

The majority of us haven't seen a decent PM shot yet. Sure they've delivered at elevation in the North of the UK but have failed to deliver anything other than rain showers for the rest of us. This has been especially disappointing because I have witnessed numerous Cheshire Gap snow shower trains in previous winters from PM shots. This one has failed abjectly so far with its literally watered down efforts.

Cheer up. The model discussion is not all about snow:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420761600

 

METO forecasting fun & games for the North on the weekend. Models are hinting at an upgrade on this too.

Saw quite enough of that kind of "fun and games" last year thank you. Such weather ceased to interest me once it began to impact on my finances (replacing fence panels - repeatedly...as well as ridge tiles.

[MP-R]

The majority of us haven't seen a decent PM shot yet. Sure they've delivered at elevation in the North of the UK but have failed to deliver anything other than rain showers for the rest of us. This has been especially disappointing because I have witnessed numerous Cheshire Gap snow shower trains in previous winters from PM shots. This one has failed abjectly so far with its literally watered down efforts.

 

Oh sure, I didn't mean this year. As you say this year's PM shots have been rather half-hearted. If anything they've been better for chilly bright sunny days here. We've probably got a better chance with one followed by a northerly than one with a reversion back to westerly or southwesterly.

[Danielvn]

It's not often i post in here, but i gotta say this Winter is really starting to annoy me!!

And by the looks of the models at present it seems that i am only going to get more and more annoyed as time goes by.

 

Some folk haven't seen snow for nearly 2 years (maybe longer for some)! Shocking really!

 

I'm off to do a snow dance IMBY...

 

 

Not really. I've only lived in the UK for 8.5 years and in that time I would say I've only had 3 snowy winters where I've lived (Prestatyn, North Wales) and only 1 of those was 2012/2013 where we were lucky and it was severe but only stuck around for a little while the couple of times it snowed.

 

I think people need to align their expectations with what is normal in the UK and winters like 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 are very much NOT the norm.

 

I looooove the snow and watch the charts as much as the next person, but if you go into every winter hoping for a severe winter and half expecting it then you're going to be disappointed 9/10 times.

[snow freak]

can't understand how people get excited about wind, rain and storms.  its not as if they are that infrequent in this country.  Snow on the other hand...!  I have no doubt that the perfect conditions for cold and snow will come together......by July

Not really. I've only lived in the UK for 8.5 years and in that time I would say I've only had 3 snowy winters where I've lived (Prestatyn, North Wales) and only 1 of those was 2012/2013 where we were lucky and it was severe but only stuck around for a little while the couple of times it snowed.

 

I think people need to align their expectations with what is normal in the UK and winters like 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 are very much NOT the norm.

 

I looooove the snow and watch the charts as much as the next person, but if you go into every winter hoping for a severe winter and half expecting it then you're going to be disappointed 9/10 times.

I agree but statiscally speaking even in 'normal' winters most places in the UK away from the coasts should see at least 5 days of lying snow.  we are not even getting that these days.

[Captain Shortwave]

 Can someone explain to me, why, in around ten days time (according to the ten day forecast) for almost the first time snow is showing with a top (feels like) temp of 2  for Bude. Even though the models are looking poor for cold

There does appear to be a risk of snow on the northern edge of that potential storm, but the heavy rain and damaging winds would be of greater concern, plus if it takes a similar track to the parallel run then there would be no snow risk altogether. The NW forecasts on there are based on the GFS data by the way.

 

@MP-R I think the feeling about these PM shots is very much dependent of whether you live in the east or west of the UK. For example here the forecast high for Sunday is 7C which is average and even more the coolest day of the next 7 or 8 days. Two thirds of them have forecast highs in double figures. On the other hand western areas with modest elevation could get a covering of snow Saturday night with even a dusting possible at low levels.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Danielvn]

The majority of us haven't seen a decent PM shot yet. Sure they've delivered at elevation in the North of the UK but have failed to deliver anything other than rain showers for the rest of us. This has been especially disappointing because I have witnessed numerous Cheshire Gap snow shower trains in previous winters from PM shots. This one has failed abjectly so far with its literally watered down efforts.

Saw quite enough of that kind of "fun and games" last year thank you. Such weather ceased to interest me once it began to impact on my finances (replacing fence panels - repeatedly...as well as ridge tiles.

 

Carl, we had lying snow in Prestatyn and there was a fair bit on the Denbigh moors on Boxing day and I think it probably lasted a while. Jump in your car and you'll easily find some snow.

[snow freak]

the worst thing about living in the UK is that we are so near potential severe cold but unfortunately trapped in the jet stream and gulf stream that invariably our winters are mild.  for snow and cold lovers It is the equivalent of a chocoholic being tempted with the door to the chocolate shop being slightly open but not allowed to enter.  I wish the jet stream would take a long long holiday south for once in its pesky life. 

[SE Blizzards]

Not really. I've only lived in the UK for 8.5 years and in that time I would say I've only had 3 snowy winters where I've lived (Prestatyn, North Wales) and only 1 of those was 2012/2013 where we were lucky and it was severe but only stuck around for a little while the couple of times it snowed.

 

I think people need to align their expectations with what is normal in the UK and winters like 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 are very much NOT the norm.

 

I looooove the snow and watch the charts as much as the next person, but if you go into every winter hoping for a severe winter and half expecting it then you're going to be disappointed 9/10 times.

 

I'm sorry, But i have never been one who expects too much during Winter, and my expectations are always pretty low as i know just how difficult it is to get snowy weather here.

 

BUT, even by UK standards Winter 2011/12, 2013/14, and this Winter so far have been really quite poor. Even in the Winters of the 'bad old days' lowland Britain used to see at least 'some' snowfall. At present some places in the UK are on a massive snow drought, and to be honest this doesn't look like changing any time soon.

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Barry12]

Cheer up. The model discussion is not all about snow:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420761600

 

METO forecasting fun & games for the North on the weekend. Models are hinting at an upgrade on this too.

 

Wind and rain is not remotely fun at all in my opinion...

[cheeky_monkey]

can't understand how people get excited about wind, rain and storms.  its not as if they are that infrequent in this country.  Snow on the other hand...!  I have no doubt that the perfect conditions for cold and snow will come together......by July

I agree but statiscally speaking even in 'normal' winters most places in the UK away from the coasts should see at least 5 days of lying snow.  we are not even getting that these days.

Likewise I cant understand how people can get excited about snow and cold..as for normal winters stats are made up of winters where there are more than say 15 days of snow and those where there is none....therefore im guessing the figures are skewed so im guessing when it is not snowy or snow free your best bet is between 2-3 days of snow lying.

[Mapantz]

Perhaps location comes down to not enjoying a storm? Having lived close to coast for over 30 years, I'm never more than 10 miles away from dozens of great beaches or headlands. I love nothing more than venturing out in wet & windy conditions!

If I cannot get snow, I'll settle for a few storms in Winter.

[Danielvn]

Likewise I cant understand how people can get excited about snow and cold..as for normal winters stats are made up of winters where there are more than say 15 days of snow and those where there is none....therefore im guessing the figures are skewed so im guessing when it is not snowy or snow free your best bet is between 2-3 days of snow lying.

Exactly. People are confusing the "average" with what is likely to happen most years. Statistically speaking a snowless winter is probably more likely for a lot of people than a winter with 5 days of lying snow.

[John Badrick]

There does appear to be a risk of snow on the northern edge of that potential storm, but the heavy rain and damaging winds would be of greater concern, plus if it takes a similar track to the parallel run then there would be no snow risk altogether. The NW forecasts on there are based on the GFS data by the way.

 

@MP-R I think the feeling about these PM shots is very much dependent of whether you live in the east or west of the UK. For example here the forecast high for Sunday is 7C which is average and even more the coolest day of the next 7 or 8 days. Two thirds of them have forecast highs in double figures. On the other hand western areas with modest elevation could get a covering of snow Saturday night with even a dusting possible at low levels.

Thanks for reply CS

[NO LONGER POSTING]

LOL... La la land this.. But still 

 

[cornish snow]

Perhaps location comes down to not enjoying a storm? Having lived close to coast for over 30 years, I'm never more than 10 miles away from dozens of great beaches or headlands. I love nothing more than venturing out in wet & windy conditions!

If I cannot get snow, I'll settle for a few storms in Winter.

Totally agree although,last winter was pushing it a bit.

[MP-R]

@MP-R I think the feeling about these PM shots is very much dependent of whether you live in the east or west of the UK. For example here the forecast high for Sunday is 7C which is average and even more the coolest day of the next 7 or 8 days. Two thirds of them have forecast highs in double figures. On the other hand western areas with modest elevation could get a covering of snow Saturday night with even a dusting possible at low levels.

 

You're probably right. I certainly noticed that to a certain degree during my 3 years living in Egham, Surrey. That's something I benefit from more often than not here : lower temperatures than further east, greater frequency of precipitation, and higher ground closeby.

 

Here are some examples of PM flows that have given snow fall here relatively recently:

 

 

which two days later brought this:

 

 

Also:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are also one or two from the 90s (awful winters) that I can recall, even in December. So all eyes on next week's bomb if it still transpires as such:

 

Showers would be wintry even to lower levels in the south, pushed along by a bitter and strong wind. Next week is certainly shaping up to be a lot more interesting than this week. -5s and -6s across the country is what to look for, less room for a wet mess.

[Mapantz]

Having just looked at the 850's (Of course, it will water down somewhat)

Quite a remarkable turnaround in 24hrs..

[Tim Bland]

Having just looked at the 850's (Of course, it will water down somewhat)

Quite a remarkable turnaround in 24hrs..

viewimage.pngviewimage (1).png

 

If you look at the precipitation at that time though it is mainly dry appart from the far North West of Scotland.  So unless its cold temps at 1500m that floats your boat, there is not much of interest for snow lovers unfortunately

 

Edited January 6, 2015 by Tim Bland

[Mapantz]

If you look at the precipitation at that time though it is mainly dry appart from the far North West of Scotland.  So unless its cold temps at 1500m that floats your boat, there is not much of interest for snow lovers unfortunately

 

Precip.png

It was just to point out, that the slight change in that flow, makes for a huge contrast in the upper temp profile.

But yes, nothing much of interest in terms of wintriness for the masses!

[snow freak]

Exactly. People are confusing the "average" with what is likely to happen most years. Statistically speaking a snowless winter is probably more likely for a lot of people than a winter with 5 days of lying snow.

even 1 day of lying snow would be nice though.  hardly asking for much really.  we might as well be in the tropics otherwise.

[Danielvn]

even 1 day of lying snow would be nice though.  hardly asking for much really.  we might as well be in the tropics otherwise.

 

The phrase "hardly asking for much really" almost sounds like you think we deserve cold snowy weather or something. The thing we should all realise is that the weather will do whatever it does and that's that. As for "we might as well be in the tropics otherwise"..... have you ever been to the tropics? For a good chunk of the year you'll have boring rain EVERY afternoon.

[mushymanrob]

i cant understand how people cannot see the intrinsic beauty in all the types of weather we get... thank god (not literally) for the variety we get !