Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[cyclonic happiness]

Welcome to physics, you can't opt out.

So you're saying lower mountain ranges on an island surrounded by a sea, have greater rain shadow than a continent with mountains 3 times higher?

[cheeky_monkey]

So you're saying lower mountain ranges on an island surrounded by a sea, have greater rain shadow than a continent with mountains 3 times higher?

nope never rains in Calgary just over the moubtains from Vancouver where it is wetter in winter than here

[Betleyblizud]

nope never rains in Calgary just over the moubtains from Vancouver where it is wetter in winter than here

And a great example of why Lake Louise can get some considerable snowfall when less than 45 mins/1 hour away and over the mountain (continental divide) at Banff and Canmore there can be considerably less throughout the winter.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Still no interest of anything potentially cold from the 6z GEFS ensembles or the latest Met Office update! :wallbash:

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[SE Blizzards]

 

Still no interest of anything potentially cold from the 6z GEFS ensembles or the latest Met Office update!   

 

 

Eh?

 

Day 8 mean looks cold to me

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

very cold SW'ly for Tuesday still showing, not often get dark blue thicknesses, won';t be any snow here, just in SW England, W Wales and most of Scotland

[meathead]

Met office are saying mild to very mild temps well into February. WTF!

[mushymanrob]

Met office are saying mild to very mild temps well into February. WTF!

 

should be taken seriously, after all, theyve called winter correctly so far. the models might be moving towards a more wintry outlook, but its still mainly in fi, and several runs continue to downplay the possible severity/longevity.

[frosty ground]

Met office are saying mild to very mild temps well into February. WTF!

Mild to Very Mild with colder spells....... That is the 15 day forecast....... The longer one say Mild with shorter Colder spells Pretty much what the models now show. 

[johnholmes]

why oh why can some people not quote accurately?

this re post 2337

the 6-15 early am forecast had this re temperatures

Temperatures will also vary from mild to very mild during the wetter spells, to cold at times, perhaps with overnight frosts, during the clearer interludes

their 16-30 had

This will bring periods of mild, but also dull, wet and often windy weather, interspersed by some short-lived clearer, colder and showery spells with frosty nights.

Is it really so difficult not to quote what is actually said rather than some biased version-please?

Edited January 9, 2015 by johnholmes

[TonyH]

So you're saying lower mountain ranges on an island surrounded by a sea, have greater rain shadow than a continent with mountains 3 times higher?

The greatest rain shadow effect at least in the UK would be that of the Scottish Highlands, some of the wettest months on record have produced almost 1000mm over the mountains and below 25mm on the east coast! Conversely when easterlies dominate the east coast can be wetter than inland, occasionally Warwickshire has wetter months than here due to easterlies predominating.

[mushymanrob]

Just under 16c recorded at sutton bonnington (nearby), if it wasnt for the breeze id have a bbq lol

[stevofunnelcl]

Friday night movie time, watching a movie called 500 mph storm, of course i don't expect it to be any good, but combined with a couple of drinks, it's going to make me laugh... probably. It's hard to find a decent hurricane movie

 

the description - When an energy experiment goes haywire, a rash of massive hurricanes rips across North America. A high school science teacher must get his family to safety before the hurricanes merge, creating a "hypercane" with the power to wipe the US off the map.

Edited January 9, 2015 by stevofunnelcl

[knocker]

Just read another pseudo science article suggesting there is a weather gene. Usual rubbish I thought. But after a while I thought hang on a minute. Last night I read "most of us crave snow" in the other thread. Now synonyms for crave are 'lust after' and 'hunger for'. Voila, a flash of light. This is heavily indicative of a snow gene.Could be a paper in this.

[stainesbloke]

Friday night movie time, watching a movie called 500 mph storm, of course i don't expect it to be any good, but combined with a couple of drinks, it's going to make me laugh... probably. It's hard to find a decent hurricane movie

 

the description - When an energy experiment goes haywire, a rash of massive hurricanes rips across North America. A high school science teacher must get his family to safety before the hurricanes merge, creating a "hypercane" with the power to wipe the US off the map.

How was the movie?! The synopsis sounded.....interesting. A hypercane? Lol. If only the special effects budget for these films was big enough....

Pretty wild here overnight, am quite enjoying this mobile weather period. Looks like a very interesting few weeks coming up too and I wouldn't be surprised to see cold upgrades appear suddenly.

[cyclonic happiness]

Last night was actually 'interesting' in as much as I enjoyed the temps shooting up to almost 16'c, made me long form the summer and spring all the more.

 

The latest models do not show anything for my area of note, even the snow isn't 'safe snow' (snow that doesn't melt a few hours later) I'd rather not bother at all, it just makes me sad watching what might have been.

 

Still, we have 1.5 months left of winter and 1947 was very late and that was preceded by a stupidly warm spell. 

[cyclonic happiness]

The greatest rain shadow effect at least in the UK would be that of the Scottish Highlands, some of the wettest months on record have produced almost 1000mm over the mountains and below 25mm on the east coast! Conversely when easterlies dominate the east coast can be wetter than inland, occasionally Warwickshire has wetter months than here due to easterlies predominating.

Everyone is missing my point.   When you watch the precipitation maps of Europe, fronts, showers, troughs, all have no problem moving across the continent , whereas the precipitation hits the low mountains of Wales here and died at the Welsh border, and forget northerlies for this area.

 

So are the computers programmed with greater accuracy around the British isles , or are the Midlands just in the most unfortunate place in Europe? 

[mushymanrob]

Big respect to TEITS for having the grace to admit hes been wrong and for crediting those who have been spot on.

[Eugene]

Colder than average week ahead for the vast majority, can't wait.

[knocker]

The latest update ruling out snow south of a line Bristol to the Wash has not gone down well in some quarters.

 

Edited January 10, 2015 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

Desperate times when people are getting excited what the model output is showing for the next week or so.

Nuff said.

[snowblizzard]

Desperate times for cold/snow lovers in the South of England!

High pressure to the SW (that damn Azores High) and low pressure to the North

Severe cold over USA & Canada fuelling strong Atlantic jet!

The question is, will this persistent Westerly pattern ever break?

Will we see frigid air flood into Western Europe towards end of January or early February?

Indications that temperatures in USA are expected to rise significantly during the next couple of weeks which should hopefully weaken the jet?

I remember the February 1991 cold spell, temperatures in Washington that week were around +21c (70f)

I still feel that something exciting will happen this winter, it may only be short-lived but cold spells in UK rarely last more than a few days!

I remain very optimistic!

Edited January 11, 2015 by snowblizzard

[stainesbloke]

Desperate times for cold/snow lovers in the South of England!

High pressure to the SW (that damn Azores High) and low pressure to the North

Severe cold over USA & Canada fuelling strong Atlantic jet!

The question is, will this persistent Westerly pattern ever break?

Will we see frigid air flood into Western Europe towards end of January or early February?

Indications that temperatures in USA are expected to rise significantly during the next couple of weeks which should hopefully weaken the jet?

I remember the February 1991 cold spell, temperatures in Washington that week were around +21c (70f)

I still feel that something exciting will happen this winter, it may only be short-lived but cold spells in UK rarely last more than a few days!

I remain very optimistic!

I remember the 1991 cold spell too, it was quite sudden and gave my area a lot of snow with max temps on the day it snowed of -5! (-10 first thing) The temps in the E USA were really high, in the 70s as you say. A warming over there could have very helpful consequences over here regarding snow and cold...I'd be quite happy with a 1991 re-run, freezing cold, loads of snow then a rapid overnight thaw a week later and back to milder zonal weather. Like you I have a feeling something exciting for the snow and cold weather fans awaits, be it fairly brief. Edited January 11, 2015 by stainesbloke

[mushymanrob]

looks like the votes going against a 'hunt for cold md thread'.... oh well, so be it, itll be spring soon anyway!

[Long haul to mild]

Just going to have an IMBY moan to make myself feel better!

These PM shots continually shown in the model outputs are a total waste of time for my neck of the woods. If we are not going to get a decent E'ly or NE'ly at some point in the next two months, then we may as well have a Bartlett set up because at least then I will be able to bike to work without getting soaked or blown away!

There, that's better....

However, for those in the N and NW, enjoy your possibilities of some proper winter weather in the next couple of weeks