Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

After days of heated debate, much of it totally irrelevant to the subject in hand, I'm pleased to announce that finally unanimity has been reached vis a vis the weather for next week.

 

It's not going to be mild.

[Danielvn]

The model thread is turning into a kindergarten with the " it won't snow IMBY" comments, then you have posters misquoting others on the possible longevity of the upcoming cold spell. Makes you wonder why Ian F posts here sometimes as anything he says gets taken out of context by one or two. The outlook remains much the same as yesterday as in uncertainty on precipitation types and where it will fall, the same goes for the longevity towards the weeks end, it could come crashing down like a house of cards or just be the start of something special. Whatever happens tis only weather and not a life and death situation.

But I DESERVE some cold weather! The climate OWES me some snow! Stop being BIASED towards the north and the hills and anywhere where I am not!

[mushymanrob]

Lol! Well Mushy wines about the only cheap thing in France!

 

well the south west is my fav are for wine...

 

I sometimes wonder if some people bother to read Fergies very succinct and informative posts.

 

only when it tells them what they want to hear...

ive not read the pages of mainly nonsense since my last visit, so ive not seen what the informed have said.

to me this morning, im far from convinced that this cold spell is going to amount to much for some. its a messy synoptic, but at times the less cold uppers mix in with the troughs

 

and the beasterly that would deliver showshowers (for some) is pushed back

the gfs 00z is similar to the ecm charts above. a messy weeks weather, with a synoptic mess for most of the time... there WILL be snow around, but how much and for who is open to question. viewing this mornings charts its looking decidedly borderline for many. sometimes we will get the low temps but no feature to produce precipitation (snow) .

 

[cornish snow]

Well,think i'll go to work now,seen enough.

 

I'll come back for the 12z,Be showing the next ice age by then

Wont hang around long though,spring will be coming by evening.

[knocker]

And as the next run unfolds low and behold..........................

 

 

Edited January 15, 2015 by knocker

[snowking]

Don't know how reliable it is, but the first of the 12z's are out (GME) and it's a great start to the afternoon

 

 

I've always rated the GME...

SK

[Milhouse]

Will be interesting to see how this upcoming cold spell pans out. Im not an expert on cold synoptics but it looks like the low pressure will be bumping into cold air, but not especially so. We also look to be lacking a very cold feed of air from the east that was associated with the Feb 09 and late Nov 10 cold spells. On the GFS the cold does arrive from the east but too late to bring much in the way of wintriness to eastern coasts due to high pressure moving down from the north.

[Timmytour]

Dammit....got to start all over again.....

I should get one chicken out of that one, another chicken out of that one, one more chicken out of...................

[BM4PM]

All this talk of snow starved south is really anoying.we've had no snow in plym since 2010 and before then none for nearly twenty years.Londoners don't know the meaning.

Edited January 15, 2015 by BM4PM

[stainesbloke]

A good week of cold to come with anywhere at risk from snowfall. Not quite sure therefore, why there is so much whining?! A week is better than nothing. The cold may last longer than that too.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wish people would stop calling him 'TETIS' its not the eye the in sky! I see it a lot on this forum!

[Pompski!]

Honestly I have seen enough of this forum (well the model output anyway)

I have been here for 5 years as a lurker during the winter months and the same thing happens every year.....

 

"Don't look beyond 48hrs because that's FI"

"Wait look, an easterly at 240hrs"

"wow, snow in Luton at 360hrs"

"oh sh*t, 580hrs it all breaks down"

 

It's like chasing rainbows. 

Apparently we are to get snow next week but the only charts they are talking about are 100+hrs away and will not verify as they stand. 

Why do they do this to themselves?

[snowblizzard]

Some tasty charts now beginning to appear in the reliable timeframe.

Helen Willets on BBC weather mentioned possibility of a lengthy cold spell!

Edited January 15, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Jason M]

Some tasty charts now beginning to appear in the reliable timeframe.

Helen Willets on BBC weather mentioned possibility of a lengthy cold spell!

Oh dear, time to dust off the bbq then :-)

(only joking)

[stewfox]

All this talk of snow starved south is really anoying.we've had no snow in plym since 2010 and before then none for nearly twenty years.Londoners don't know the meaning.

you have palm trees ?

[sorepaw1]

Will be interesting to see how this upcoming cold spell pans out. Im not an expert on cold synoptics but it looks like the low pressure will be bumping into cold air, but not especially so. We also look to be lacking a very cold feed of air from the east that was associated with the Feb 09 and late Nov 10 cold spells. On the GFS the cold does arrive from the east but too late to bring much in the way of wintriness to eastern coasts due to high pressure moving down from the north.

Hi milhouse I have relations in your village,I live in bridlington ,I've forecasted weather for 30years, next week is looking good for us for snow,as the easterly develops, I take your point about the high pressure moving south, but the 18z tonight is cracking imo,

I think we may see a prolonged cold spell,even if we get a westerly airflow it's by no means mild imo, given its origin in the 18z.,Take care regards Steve from bridlington.

[BM4PM]

you have palm trees ?

No but the neighbour does .it was dieing after 2013 but the bloody things alive again.

[Cheshire Freeze]

No but the neighbour does .it was dieing after 2013 but the bloody things alive again.

 

I had a lol moment reading this. You don't like the palm tree then

[BM4PM]

I had a lol moment reading this. You don't like the palm tree then

Just don't see the point in it.it's Gray and damp for 90% of the year down here.

[knocker]

When you first log in in the morning you know instinctively something is drastically wrong when you hear the sounds of weeping and wailing from the other thread. Oh god...surely not a rainfest?

[Continental Climate]

I don't get all the false optimism from some members in the MOD thread, we are British for heavens sake its our god given right to be as miserable as sin. 

[Great Plum]

What the 18z giveth, the 0z taketh away...

[tayzi]

Its a blip....its a blip....its a blip......its a blip....  if I chant it often enough it may turn back again 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well the cold spell,snap,blip has begun in earnest over here a good couple of inches have been dumped (snow that is)

[snowblizzard]

The UK (especially the South!) has to be the most frustrating place to live if you're looking for severe cold & snowy conditions!

Dr Cohen saying seasonably mild temperatures into USA next week which should result in much colder air pushing down into Northern Europe.

We really need a massive cold pool over Northern Europe to tap into for any decent cold spell in UK

Northerlies never quite do the trick and rarely last very long!

Edited January 16, 2015 by snowblizzard