Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Mapantz]

Meto warning for snow potential on Sunday in the SE quadrant of the UK doesn't tally with their own fax chart, the latter showing the front further north:

 

20150118 Warning.png

 

2015011812zT+60.png

Looks right to me?!

There's no snow warning for the SE though? Only rain, with the possibility of snow over the hills- on the leading edge I expect?!

[Barking_Mad]

It's only a cold spell when it's actually cold outside. It's only snowing when it snows outside. Charts are not reality. Potential doesn't exist.

[mushymanrob]

. When Mushy and IDO are in town you know it's not going to be great for prolonged snowfall! 

 

of per-leez ! we arent god you know, and we are here all year around (ok i sometimes take a winter break to avoid this chaos) , when theres snow thats certain, i (and i suspect ido) will post about it.   just because some of us dont subscribe to the hype, doesnt mean we wont post about cold/snow when its actually there.

 

actually, i could turn this around and suggest that its not great for prolonged snowfall a certain mr murr isnt 'in town'.    i think that holds more water then your theory!

 

MushymanRob is just loving it!!

 

nah mate, i couldnt care less. id welcome a decent blizzard, but if im not going to get a great event, id sooner it be mild, because i like mild. so in reality theres nothing for me to 'love', because a great snowfall is unlikely and it wont be mild. i lose either way!

some posters set themselves up for a fall, by getting carried away, understandable i guess, but as the old saying goes 'dont believe the hype'.

[terrier]

Think the latest tweet from Matt Hugo sums it up. Back to square one after next week. #stormy. Think like a few have said the models have picked up a new signal. And that's to fire up the jet stream again.

[A.J]

Think the latest tweet from Matt Hugo sums it up. Back to square one after next week. #stormy. Think like a few have said the models have picked up a new signal. And that's to fire up the jet stream again.

I wasn't aware Matt Hugo's tweets dictated future weather......you learn something new every day! 

[Hocus Pocus]

I wasn't aware Matt Hugo's tweets dictated future weather......you learn something new every day! 

His tweets vary daily and seem to be as manic as some of the posts in the MOD thread, I'll await further advice from the MetO as to when any breakdown may occur.

[Weather-history]

This sums up the hunt for the elusive Scandi high and elusive easterly blast, a ruddy Benny Hill chase. Going round and round and getting nowhere!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9nr27rOrL0

[Hocus Pocus]

This sums up the hunt for the elusive Scandi high and elusive easterly blast, a ruddy Benny Hill chase. Going round and round and getting nowhere!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9nr27rOrL0

   

[Dr. Astro]

This sums up the hunt for the elusive Scandi high and elusive easterly blast, a ruddy Benny Hill chase. Going round and round and getting nowhere!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9nr27rOrL0

 

Brilliant Kev.   :rofl:  

[snow freak]

who else here hates it when the word 'marginal' is mentioned?

[Timmytour]

All the to'ing and fro'ing......one can imagine how it must have been back in the day......

 

I can't really see anything significant in the way of cold coming up.....looking at the seaweed all it seems to indicate is mild westerly winds blowing through. Nothing really out there in the outlook that screams order some extra deliveries from the coalman to me

(Sorry Mushy )

[mickeyb44]

For the south easterners...........

 

Edited January 16, 2015 by mickeyb44

[Downpour]

Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked down again in their back gardens on a never ending roundabout of neurotic armchair frame by frame dissection of intra 4 X day/night NWP output?

 

Vicissitude revisited yet again. Most familiar.

 

Interminable detailed analysis pouring over every chart within the context of what is a chaotic, messy cold trough disruption pattern - that has continuously moving marginal boundaries, from one locality to another, from one day to the next, and from this weekend and through much of next week, is completely and utterly pointless and has no reward other than perfectly avoidable mental exhaustion.

 

Equally, posting selective mean charts from hand picked model charts within the context of what is evolving, totally skews and dilutes out what is going on right now within the NH pattern.

 

For the first time this season we are looking at a progressive stagnant cold pool of air over Europe and the UK and a consistent trend to keep trough disruption into the continental heartlands. Troughs heading SE into this cold air mean snowfalls cropping up here, there, and everywhere.

 

These cannot be forecasted most accurately till at least 24 hours before. Sometimes the biggest surprises and changes occur at t0 - t6.  I believe that many will see these surprises in the day to come.

 

Best wait till something falls out the sky first is my advice rather than building virtual hide and seek snowmen that are often days away.

 

The macro pattern is changing quite radically from what we have seen so far this winter

 

For the first time this season, heights to the NE stand a reasonable chance of becoming a greater influence. Whatever happens ultimately, talk of deceased easterlies is premature.

 

For detailed reasons I gave yesterday, do not make assumptions based on any face value suggestions of a return to a sustained flat westerly pattern. The italics are most relevant.

 

The foolhardiness of irrational and futile reactions every six hours or so is as poignant right now as it usually is anyway, whatever the prospective weather type.

 

If this absurd dysfunction can't be self controlled, best to find something in the real world of greater importance that justifies worrying about

I don't agree actually – my sense is that the snowfall that was progged has gone pear shaped in the reliable timeframe. Cold rain fest for the SE on the cards for Sunday – possibly the most miserable day of the year.

 

I hope I am wrong but I fear I am right and look forward to Mushy and IDO's next outputs on the 12zs, which will no doubt show rain for the weekend followed by a raging Atlantic coming back in in short order!

[Frosty.]

Do you have a chart to back this up, rather than posting the Meto weather forecast?

I post plenty of charts, always have, always will..:-) models show a cold outlook.. nuff said.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Downpour - the cold rain fest in the se on Sunday (which if it does actually make it across the channel will give snowccover on its n flank) wasn't even predicted a day or two ago.

The other thread is for moaning and ramping - that's why many of us hardly post in it!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Chasing an easterly is like chasing your biggest crush, get your hopes up, they'll soon come crashing down.

[liam300]

A very cold Wintry outlook over the coming days, With bands of Snow/showers effecting most parts of the UK and severe overnight Frosts. There is lot's of uncertainty after 144hr, I expect more chopping and changing over the coming days as the Models get to grips and start to balance.. This weekend will be a shock to the system for some, As bitter cold air ushers in and sinks South from the N/W turning Northerly by Monday with -10 uppers over the North and -5/6/7 850's over a large swathe of the UK. By Tue/Wed a weak front pushes in giving some decent snowfall accumulations for the Midlands and Northern Britain. Winter has finally arrived 

 

 

 

Isn't this a typical winter experience? Especially for the northern part of the UK

Nothing special, nothing lost.

[mickeyb44]

I thought ramping was allowed in this thread, it is in the title.

If not, where do ramps go ?

[Downpour]

I have never grasped why it's considered IMBY to point out that charts don't show snow for the SE. But perfectly okay to say "winter has arrived" when your chart only shows snowfall for the pennine belt!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Chaos is reigning in the mod thread LOL. Posts being removed left, right and centre. God I love NW in the winter time LOL.

[mushymanrob]

All the to'ing and fro'ing......one can imagine how it must have been back in the day......

 

(Sorry Mushy )

 

  ill give you that one!

[Dr. Astro]

I have never grasped why it's considered IMBY to point out that charts don't show snow for the SE. But perfectly okay to say "winter has arrived" when your chart only shows snowfall for the pennine belt!!

 

Can't you give it a rest in the MOD thread ? Please... For your sanity and everyone elses...

[cornish snow]

Chaos is reigning in the mod thread LOL. Posts being removed left, right and centre. God I love NW in the winter time LOL.

Me too. Funniest thing on a screen. 

 

Beats "Mrs browns boys"any day

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Me too. Funniest thing on a screen. 

 

Beats "Mrs browns boys"any day

Aye it is proper good free entertainment.

[nick sussex]

I feared the worst once I saw the morning outputs and the model discussion didn't disappoint in terms of drama and grumpiness.

 

In many past easterly fiascos  the backtrack was from cold easterly to crap milder sw'erly so there was no second prize on offer, in this case its gone from easterly to still cold with some snow.

 

Theres no milder temps showing within a reliable timeframe and indeed given the trends with the easterly it might be that the new disrupting energy over the UK produces more snow anyway.

 

The problem with easterlies is that they come in different variations , a mere mention of an easterly seems to be correlated with convective snow showers and ice days but the outputs were having a hard job delivering suitably cold 850's to deliver that.

 

It might be that one does appear further down the line but the same warning needs to be applied, easterlies are the worst to verify and you can only be sure when this is modelled within T96hrs, but depending on synoptics I still like to go for the T72hrs rule.