Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[minus 9]

Ive really had to take some time away from the models. It can take over your life. Hunting for cold and snow which i love more than anything else except for kids and fam.just learn to snowboard or ski then you will see snow a least once a year.sometime things need to be put into perspective. Enjoy the next week.ps. mods move if necessary.

[chionomaniac]

Not a moan this - quite the opposite. There are beginning to emerge quite a few signs that a far more potent cold spell will gather pace by the end of the month. They are not all there yet, but a significant amount are. I suspect that any mild Atlantic reprieve will be short lived. Cautiously excited and sitting on my hands - I wonder if Tamara has spotted them yet? 

 

And with that, I am busy all evening .....

[Dancerwithwings]

 Chionomaniac....How can you leave us hanging like that What ever the news maybe.... Sounds like cold awaits Fingers crossed

[J10]

What frustrates me is people not only giving up on snow events before they have even happened but also then getting disappointed when they don't happen.

 

It is a less extreme version of winter is over in Mid January

[ANYWEATHER]

I think people shoud be happy with the synoptics, is it not better than last year..?

[Anthony81]

I think people shoud be happy with the synoptics, is it not better than last year..?

it's not a bad cold spell as far as mimima cold temps go, but my location in the west country is projecteted not to be in the firing line for snow potential between now and wednesday, which is a tad frustrating from an imby perspective.

[seaside 60]

Lets face it, all we ask for is a week of mega cold, lots and lots of powdery deep snow even just once a year and I dont mean jet off to the Alps.

Everything halts, people go out as familes to enjoy the snow, adults become kids for a week, work ceases for a few days.

Is that really to much to ask for. :D

Even in this country down south.

[stratty]

I think people shoud be happy with the synoptics, is it not better than last year..?

I can't make a snow man with synoptics! 

[snowblizzard]

Lets face it, all we ask for is a week of mega cold, lots and lots of powdery deep snow even just once a year and I dont mean jet off to the Alps.

Everything halts, people go out as familes to enjoy the snow, adults become kids for a week, work ceases for a few days.

Is that really to much to ask for. :D

Even in this country down south.

Absolutely!

It's really great when that magical scenario actually happens but it's so rare!

I just love the chaos that a decent freeze-up and moderate snowfall causes in UK.

But, as I keep harping on about, for that possibility we really need a frigid Western Europe which we just haven't got at the moment! 

There's still time, but the Cheltenham Festival is only 7 weeks away, so time is rapidly running out!

Edited January 18, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Nath]

I actually saw a snowflake today for the first time since Feb 2013.  It was in a sleety rain mix but it was white enough for me to class it as a bona fide snowflake.   Looking to see at least one more next week please!!

[TSNWK]

This spell is becoming a bit of a disappointment to me and those in southern half of the UK. Frankly it's the worse type of winter weather for me, a degree or two the wrong side of marginal, so no snow but I still have to take a hit oh the heating costs...

This morning near miss and the latest runs confirm that - rain at 2 degrees and then we see runs that extend the marginal cold a bit longer..

Frankly if I can't have snow, I'm not interested and would rather the whole lot buggered off and saved a few quid on the gas bill.

Ran over. Back to bed and then off to see the hammers.. So not all bad.

Enjoy your Sunday folks

[snowblizzard]

Yes, we had a very brief snow shower (wet snow!) in Sevenoaks, Kent yesterday, the first time I've seen a snow flake since that brilliant day 12 March 2013 when we had a blizzard in Kent with about 4 inches of powder snow and sub zero temperatures all day!

Edited January 18, 2015 by snowblizzard

[snowblizzard]

This spell is becoming a bit of a disappointment to me and those in southern half of the UK. Frankly it's the worse type of winter weather for me, a degree or two the wrong side of marginal, so no snow but I still have to take a hit oh the heating costs...

This morning near miss and the latest runs confirm that - rain at 2 degrees and then we see runs that extend the marginal cold a bit longer..

Frankly if I can't have snow, I'm not interested and would rather the whole lot buggered off and saved a few quid on the gas bill.

Ran over. Back to bed and then off to see the hammers.. So not all bad.

Enjoy your Sunday folks

Yep, nearly always the case in the South when the air mass comes from the NNW!

It has to be exceptionally cold air for it to reach the South at sub zero levels. 

[rommy19871]

The next week cold spell is not even a true cold spell by the looks of it the lows comming in look very week and i would say the north of england will have a decent chance of snow other than that will be dry and chilly for the rest

[mushymanrob]

got a feeling, think theres a reasonable chance of a freeze developing.

not that i want one...

[TEITS]

Before the 12Zs come out I wanted to mention that my instincts are telling me the E,ly flow may well return. Maybe it will take until tomorrows 12Zs but the trend could appear later today. Next weekend is when im expecting an E,ly to return and do not buy the current output suggesting a return to milder W,lys.

My post from yesterday is looking promising after the 0Z/06Z GFS runs!

[March Blizzard]

My post from yesterday is looking promising after the 0Z/06Z GFS runs!

It's uncanny how similar the runs look to that BBC 6-10 outlook from a few nights ago. Most seemed to dismiss it at the time when I highlighted it, and perhaps for good reason; some kind of westerly breakdown was looking likely then.

I found it odd at the time, I couldn't work out how they were seemingly certain enough to put it in the forecast. It seems they may have been on to something after all, but we aren't there yet.

[Richard2901]

This spell is becoming a bit of a disappointment to me and those in southern half of the UK. 

 

Well up here in the far North East it's certainly not a bit of a disappointment. It is a huge disappointment. I've not had any lying snow at all this week, this year or last year. This current spell is just horrible, cold windy weather that further extends the record breaking snow drought. Barely dipped below freezing at all this past week either and there has been increased amounts of rain after a dry first half of winter. Exactly the same as what happened this time last year.

 

It's bad enough enduring cold zonal dross where the snow doesn't make it past the mountains but now with a northerly we are getting rain when it's past mid-January

 

I'd rather have the Euro High than more of this awful cold windy weather that has persisted all winter so far resulting in barely any more frost than last winter and even less snow 

[Nath]

got a feeling, think theres a reasonable chance of a freeze developing.

not that i want one...

Mushy if your saying that I think weve got half a chance of something decent.  Ive stroked my lucky goose as well.

[mcweather]

got a feeling, think theres a reasonable chance of a freeze developing.

not that i want one...

 

Crikey Mushy if you carry on like this we'll have to call you Murrshymanrob.

 

I think you may well be right though. So many people have got caught up in trying to tell us who will get snow from the synoptics shown on various runs in the past few days and presumably because this is the first chance of real winter weather since March 2013 they have taken their eyes off the bigger picture.

 

That picture is one that suggests that the upcoming week could merely be round one, a preliminary skirmish in what may turn out to be a much longer affair. Suggestions from both Chiono and Tamarra that the overall atmospheric patterns both strat and trop related are falling into place for a far more significant cold spell down the line.

 

Todays forecast for the week ahead posted up on the bbc about 20 minutes ago was very indicative of the uncertainty at the MET OFFICE about a return of the Atlantic beyond next weekend.

Edited January 18, 2015 by mcweather

[Paul_1978]

Before the 12z GFS everyone was positive, but since then not so much. It's all ups and downs in here ain't it!

[Richard Lake]

So far this period has been pretty disappointing for Lincolnshire and Eastern England aside from cold temperatures and the odd flurry. It seems the thread is on the cusp of talking about next weekend again and 'what could be' rather than hoped snowfall for the masses this week.

I do hope to see some positive news from posters this week, its been ages since we've seen any meaningful snowfall - aka Nov 2010.

I hope this Northerly delivers a raging Easterly would be the icing on the cake.

Edited January 18, 2015 by djrikki

[snowrye]

beast from the east,more like pest from the west

[The Northern Ramper]

UKMO 72

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011812/UW72-21.GIF?18-17 -TRACK

 

 

UK MAP.png

 

 

Bank

[MPG]

Lots of talk of Scandinavia Highs making a huge an influence. Heard that so many times on this forum over the years. The high never does, the Atlantic always comes in. It's like the last chance salon to try and convince ourselves the cold will stay put (not that cold as it stands) or get colder due to Scandi highs.

Edited January 18, 2015 by MPG