Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Jason M]

I think part of the problem is that we went from superb charts to middle of the road ones and people stopped really taking the latter seriously and clung on to the former. It became a kind of hope casting. I suppose some of the older folk have been through this let down so many times they're more cynical and jaded and hence better able to voice caution. Some of the ramping was sad to see, really. I hate disappointment like this has been.

 

yep, and god help anyone who pointed out that it was likely to be disappointing. Really it was obvious as far back as last Friday when the original northerly was a bust. It always looked pretty marginal after that.

 

Still, some have at least seen some snow this week, others are still waiting and are likely to have to wait for some time yet

[The Enforcer]

Is that really real?! Talk about unlucky.

Man that's a bum deal alright , that was the last proper dumping we got around here , snowed jan 13 but only a few cm

That's the metoffice warning chart as was produced for around that time with amber warnings for most regions. It was an easterly, hence why I don't get as hung up on them as many do. It was actually even worse than that as the pattern was similar for 3 days, but that's the only image I have. Ingrained in my memory is TWS trying to explain it by saying it was like rolling a die three times and getting three 'ones'.

Edited January 20, 2015 by The Enforcer

[Mr Frost]

Geezo guys - try and cheer up a little.

From an IMBY point of view those who talked up this current cold/snowy spell were spot on - two sides to every moan/ramp.

A ramp from me (sorry) - I am in the middle of a great cold spell which had an epic snowfall last Friday night, top up on Sunday morning and light snow on and off since. Max temps struggling to get above -1 since Saturday and snow still thick on the ground lasting until at least this Friday.

Reading this page makes me realise how lucky I am, hopefully you guys get something soon. (If you like cold weather that is, early Spring for Mushy would be ideal)

All the best.

A wee picture as well to sum up this thread at the minute...

Edited January 20, 2015 by Mr Frost

[igloo]

the quicker the snow lifts here the better 4 inches of solid ice on the pavements since friday in the village and 8 inches lying where i stay good to see a thaw is on its way from friday

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

You never know guy's Feb could turn out as a good cold spell for people living in the south and east this time we got rest of this month and all of February maybe even march

[Jason M]

You never know guy's Feb could turn out as a good cold spell for people living in the south and east this time we got rest of this month and all of February maybe even march

 

Not impossible, but odds very heavily against I suspect. Its very unusual to get a very cold Feb after very mild Jan & Feb down here. It has happened but its really a freak event. My (hopefully wrong) gut instinct is that down here we might be looking at a 2nd snowless winter on the roll. I'm 44 this year and I'd never seen a completely snow free winter in this neck of the woods until last year, so to get two in a row would be really something! 

 

The PV shows absolutely no sign of moving from Greenland / Canada so we will be left with my pet hate 'cold zonal' which we have supposedly seen lots of this winter. Well if its been cold zonal, someone sure forgot to reflect it in the CET for Dec and January  . For NW Europe as a whole its been even milder and at this rate its heading into record breaking territory in some areas.

 

For me the story of this winter and last winter is the complete lack of any signal whatsoever for HLB. Even taking into account the hundreds of ensemble runs I've hardly seen a properly cold chart all winter. In some ways this winter is worse than last year as we did get a few FI teasers last year.

 

Anyway, it is the moan thread, so nobody can accuse me of being off topic

[knocker]

But the anomaly charts are looking at something like this down the line. Could be interesting.

Chart weatherbell

 

[SnowObsessor90]

Can't wait until we have all of the model drama again next month before it downgrades into a non-event like this one turned out to be.

[stainesbloke]

Even though this 'cold' spell has been pretty lame for much of the South especially, I've loved all the sunny days and frosty mornings, great stuff. Over 5 weeks of winter to go! This winter has been nowhere near the vileness of last years IMHO and there's time for something truly cold to come our way yet.

[Danielvn]

Even though this 'cold' spell has been pretty lame for much of the South especially, I've loved all the sunny days and frosty mornings, great stuff. Over 5 weeks of winter to go! This winter has been nowhere near the vileness of last years IMHO and there's time for something truly cold to come our way yet.

 

Agree on that, can't believe some people are saying that this year is worse than last year, last year was just wind rain and mild, rinse and repeat over and over and over again. I think we had one frost last winter.....

[TEITS]

Last week I synoptically gave this cold spell a 6 out of 10. The reality was more around 4 out of 10. This is why I love my E,lys, gimme upper temps of -12C, max temps of -4C, dewpoints of -10C. None of this marginal rubbish!

 

Still my mood has been lifted by this mornings output. This winter has still been better than last year when I didn't see a single snowflake. At least I have seen snow falling twice and a few hard frosts.

[That ECM]

Roll on April when I can put this addiction down for 7 months!! ECM 240 chart!!

[snow freak]

 

 

All I can say about yesterday's 'event' was utter rubbish.  I give up on british winters now.  just too marginal too often these days.

Last week I synoptically gave this cold spell a 6 out of 10. The reality was more around 4 out of 10. This is why I love my E,lys, gimme upper temps of -12C, max temps of -4C, dewpoints of -10C. None of this marginal rubbish!

 

Still my mood has been lifted by this mornings output. This winter has still been better than last year when I didn't see a single snowflake. At least I have seen snow falling twice and a few hard frosts.

could we possibly have had a worse winter than last year though is the question?

[snow freak]

Summed up perfectly. Northerlies seldom deliver to the south let alone the snow under nourished south east corner I maintain will always fair better from an easterly or north easterly. It's ALWAYS Scotland, midlands, north east england, east Anglia. (HUGE yawn) wake me up when something remotely interesting presents itself. Wild goose chase doesn't even come close.

I should point out that even Northampton which is 60 miles north of the M4 didn't even have snow yesterday just a sleety mix before turning fully to rain.  Not sure why some people or forecasters use the M4 as a dividing line between snow and sleet/rain.  Northampton hasn't had any snow for the past 2 winters now and I have lost my patience with the models which never show anything concrete or definite as regards snow and even when they do, they downgrade.  Just totally fed up with the british winters now.

[Bristawl Si]

All I can say about yesterday's 'event' was utter rubbish.  I give up on british winters now.  just too marginal too often these days.

could we possibly have had a worse winter than last year though is the question?

Agreed. It was the lowest of the lows. This year aint much better. It's not even 'average' in my book (imby).

Even down here i'd see a few laying snow days by now.

Poor - as for looking at charts 10 days in advance.

Not anymore. Just wait for Fergie's (and Meto) updates.

[snow freak]

Agreed. It was the lowest of the lows. This year aint much better. It's not even 'average' in my book (imby).

Even down here i'd see a few laying snow days by now.

Poor - as for looking at charts 10 days in advance.

Not anymore. Just wait for Fergie's (and Meto) updates.

I concur

[knocker]

Current ENSO + MJO combined index analogs for next 30 day aggregate. pic.twitter.com/EbKzB1YzAH

 

ECM ens 6-10 and 11=15

 

February to start off cold across the U.S. In response to more AK ridge development. Cross polar flow if verified EPO pic.twitter.com/wOQh2Lojaa

Edited January 21, 2015 by knocker

[cobbett]

Even though this 'cold' spell has been pretty lame for much of the South especially, I've loved all the sunny days and frosty mornings, great stuff. Over 5 weeks of winter to go! This winter has been nowhere near the vileness of last years IMHO and there's time for something truly cold to come our way yet.

Give me last winter any day - this winter has so far been the most drab/boring/dull nothingness I've know for a while. Last winter at least had the excitement of some decent storms - will never forget the trips to Chesil Beach to watch some pretty impressive swells barrelling in

[microclimate]

Give me last winter any day - this winter has so far been the most drab/boring/dull nothingness I've know for a while. Last winter at least had the excitement of some decent storms - will never forget the trips to Chesil Beach to watch some pretty impressive swells barrelling in

Yes agreed and at least we didn't have to put the heating on last year.  If It ain't snow it may as well be mild in my book because it's cheaper.

[Rocheydub]

Well, a big let down for us on this side of the wee island to your west, just a few flurries with no settling snow. So I'm going to follow my own advice, and take a break from model outputs. Model fatigue truly has me exhausted.

 

I will pop back in over the weekend and have a look, and I would advise a lot of you who didn't fare well with this cold spell. I say this, because the frustrations can be exhausting, but remember, it's not the models or the posters here, making the weather. It's old mother nature...

 

Take a break, and come back refreshed.

[Paul White.]

Cautionary note not to take nature of any trough disruption/resultant northerly broad flow and longevity of this, plus timing of subsequent return to flatter zonality, too literally.

Models will inevitably show great divergence in how this is handled, including run-to-run, as is typical in any such scenario. The one we are currently experiencing epitomised the difficulties even to short lead times.

That's a good point. I mean after reding this thread looking st the models for today and keeping my eyes on the met office. I fully expected a slight dusting of snow here in west youkshire. In reality the snow today has been pretty heavy and we have been caught out. Upto six inches of snow has fallen quite widely. And in my opinion the nwp for today certainly didn't look spectacular but it has certainly delivered a decent snow event.. As you can see from my attached files looks marginal Synoptics

Paul

Edited January 21, 2015 by Paul White.

[cobbett]

Well, a big let down for us on this side of the wee island to your west, just a few flurries with no settling snow. So I'm going to follow my own advice, and take a break from model outputs. Model fatigue truly has me exhausted.

 

I will pop back in over the weekend and have a look, and I would advise a lot of you who didn't fare well with this cold spell. I say this, because the frustrations can be exhausting, but remember, it's not the models or the posters here, making the weather. It's old mother nature...

 

Take a break, and come back refreshed.

Yes its been a long winter model watching ! To think of the excitement I felt when monitoring the OPI index in October - I've been conned !

[cheeky_monkey]

Last week I synoptically gave this cold spell a 6 out of 10. The reality was more around 4 out of 10.

Has it been cold? or did I miss something?

[mushymanrob]

Has it been cold? or did I miss something?

 

of course its cold.... its several degrees below average... thats cold to me!

 

talking of cold... its looking like the outlooks will be mainly cold. bugger!. im wanting a nice fat bartlett to give me a nice mild february... but thats unlikely to happen this season.

[snow freak]

I know a lot of places in the north and Scotland have had some decent snow events this winter, but here in Northamptonshire this winter is actually worse than last winter to be honest.  At least it was milder last year rather than just cold with sleety rain.  I love the cold and snow but would rather it be mild than this 'marginal' stuff we keep getting.  This winter in my eyes is quickly going down the pan and unless something decent happens before mid February then I will be glad to see the back of it.