Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Continental Climate]

eh?... the 'game' is far from over if you are referring to cold. maybe in 4 weeks if theres nothing showing then it might look likely to be 'over'.

It is over mushy!!! Us cold weather fans can only take so many let downs and defeats before we throw in the towel. I feel utterly punch drunk with this winter so far my mind is now firmly looking forward to spring!!!

[Severe Blizzard]

It is over mushy!!! Us cold weather fans can only take so many let downs and defeats before we throw in the towel. I feel utterly punch drunk with this winter so far my mind is now firmly looking forward to spring!!!

Another let-down on the way in the south tonight. Usual story, wrong side of marginal - yet more cold rain and dismal waste of time cold conditions. Snow north of M4 again, like on Boxing Day and forecast will be 100% correct (as south will have yet another near miss). Funny (well, not really) how Sunday's snow forecast for the south didn't materialise and it was cold rain dross as before. 

 

We're not even out of this 'cold' spell yet and it is game over. I take the FI cold snap of early February with extreme caution. Besides it's another northerly - useless for snow in central southern England. If we can't get snow, unless it is frosty and sunny weather, cold conditions are a complete waste of time and inhibit the enjoyment of outdoor activities - cross country cycling being the only thing that I can engage in to forget this dreadful winter and that isn't fun in damp and windy marginal muck. Sick of being confined to camp indoors when it isn't snowing but too cold to enjoy anything else. 

 

Currently, I rank this worse than 1983/1984 and 2005/2006. Only 1992/1993 was worse - however I am comparing 51 days of this winter with complete seasons in the past. The three other listed winters all yielded some snow, but amounts were very disappointing. This winter has yielded none. Last year was not seen as a dreadful winter, despite a complete absence of snow, as the deluge of rain was accompanied by comfortable mild conditions and the events were interesting. There were also several winter thunderstorms and hail (something else not seen this winter). It is these marginal snow events where this part of the south always misses out then there is a long wait for the next cold opportunity which is just another let-down that makes this type of winter so unpleasant.

 

Roll on spring, if things can't improve.       

[Hotspur62]

Another let-down on the way in the south tonight. Usual story, wrong side of marginal - yet more cold rain and dismal waste of time cold conditions. Snow north of M4 again, like on Boxing Day and forecast will be 100% correct (as south will have yet another near miss). Funny (well, not really) how Sunday's snow forecast for the south didn't materialise and it was cold rain dross as before. 

 

We're not even out of this 'cold' spell yet and it is game over. I take the FI cold snap of early February with extreme caution. Besides it's another northerly - useless for snow in central southern England. If we can't get snow, unless it is frosty and sunny weather, cold conditions are a complete waste of time and inhibit the enjoyment of outdoor activities - cross country cycling being the only thing that I can engage in to forget this dreadful winter and that isn't fun in damp and windy marginal muck. Sick of being confined to camp indoors when it isn't snowing but too cold to enjoy anything else. 

 

Currently, I rank this worse than 1983/1984 and 2005/2006. Only 1992/1993 was worse - however I am comparing 51 days of this winter with complete seasons in the past. The three other listed winters all yielded some snow, but amounts were very disappointing. This winter has yielded none. Last year was not seen as a dreadful winter, despite a complete absence of snow, as the deluge of rain was accompanied by comfortable mild conditions and the events were interesting. There were also several winter thunderstorms and hail (something else not seen this winter). It is these marginal snow events where this part of the south always misses out then there is a long wait for the next cold opportunity which is just another let-down that makes this type of winter so unpleasant.

 

Roll on spring, if things can't improve.       

Hang in there.I along with quite a few in the South havent seen a flake for 22 months but there was surprise snowfall in Sussex & East Kent this morning which gave a light covering. Believe me I share your frustration but this winter has been so much better than last winter(9 frosts compared to just 4  for whole of winter) .I feel that we will get one decent snowfall this winter and you only have to look back to March 2013 to prove that snow and cold can persist(although I grant you the heavier snow was Midlands North then).That said if you take March 15th as end of winter that still gives us 54 days left with snow potential, over 7 weeks my friend.

 

Keep positive(especially those in South).It will happen soon

[Love Snow]

Please visit the Yorkshire Thread from 10pm for the incoming Snow event!

[Love Snow]

Steve Murr's snow chart now looks like this

Not for many Areas up north tonight it doesn't!

[mushymanrob]

well im no fan of the cold as you might have gathered by now . , but not even im 'writing off' winter just yet as i dont think its over by a long shot. but if this chart verifies (which is unlikely)

 

 

then you may well have a point!

[EML Network]

Have faith folks, I woke up in Brighton this morning to a dusting of snow, completely unexpected so who knows what might happen, if it can snow here right on the coast in one of the most snow starved places in England it can snow anywhere

[Frank Trough]

Have faith folks, I woke up in Brighton this morning to a dusting of snow, completely unexpected so who knows what might happen, if it can snow here right on the coast in one of the most snow starved places in England it can snow anywhere

 

...except Bournemouth. The good thing for us is we've always been the wrong side of marginal for this "event" so nothing lost.  110,000 to 12,000 years ago, while northern Europe was in the grip of an ice age, it was a "wintry mix" in Poole and Bournemouth.

 

We have seen a few frosts though, a definite improvement on last year.

[The Bevmeister]

Snowing here right now. I know it won't come to anything but it's like welcoming a friend back home!!!!

[> mark]

Wow, looking at the latest BBC forecast ....... we might, at a push ...... get sleet :-/

 

This winter to date is worse than last year, dire, dull, dross!

 

No lying snow here now for the last two winters and even 12/13 yielded only one "sledging" day (even tho the mud was showing later in the day)!

 

Moan over ....... for now, bring me sunshine da da da :-)

[mountain shadow]

You can tell the outlook for cold is dire when the model thread has only moved 1 page since yesterday and in the heart of Winter too.

 

I suppose we can put this Winter down to experience again and confine the following  "markers to sustained cold" in the bin

 

OPI

SAI

minor SSW

-QBO

[snowfish1]

Another let-down on the way in the south tonight. Usual story, wrong side of marginal - yet more cold rain and dismal waste of time cold conditions. Snow north of M4 again, like on Boxing Day and forecast will be 100% correct (as south will have yet another near miss). Funny (well, not really) how Sunday's snow forecast for the south didn't materialise and it was cold rain dross as before.

We're not even out of this 'cold' spell yet and it is game over. I take the FI cold snap of early February with extreme caution. Besides it's another northerly - useless for snow in central southern England. If we can't get snow, unless it is frosty and sunny weather, cold conditions are a complete waste of time and inhibit the enjoyment of outdoor activities - cross country cycling being the only thing that I can engage in to forget this dreadful winter and that isn't fun in damp and windy marginal muck. Sick of being confined to camp indoors when it isn't snowing but too cold to enjoy anything else.

Currently, I rank this worse than 1983/1984 and 2005/2006. Only 1992/1993 was worse - however I am comparing 51 days of this winter with complete seasons in the past. The three other listed winters all yielded some snow, but amounts were very disappointing. This winter has yielded none. Last year was not seen as a dreadful winter, despite a complete absence of snow, as the deluge of rain was accompanied by comfortable mild conditions and the events were interesting. There were also several winter thunderstorms and hail (something else not seen this winter). It is these marginal snow events where this part of the south always misses out then there is a long wait for the next cold opportunity which is just another let-down that makes this type of winter so unpleasant.

Roll on spring, if things can't improve.

Summed up perfectly. Northerlies seldom deliver to the south let alone the snow under nourished south east corner I maintain will always fair better from an easterly or north easterly. It's ALWAYS Scotland, midlands, north east england, east Anglia. (HUGE yawn) wake me up when something remotely interesting presents itself. Wild goose chase doesn't even come close. Edited January 20, 2015 by snowfish1

[snowblizzard]

I'm absolutely fed-up with this wash & rinse Azores High dominated pattern!

I know it's only 20th January but it's obviously not going to happen again this winter.

So, bring-on Spring and some warmer more comfortable conditions.

[mushymanrob]

Guys.... Seriously... Dont you view the models?

Theres growing support for a deep low to our northeast and a huge possibility of a cold spell with plenty of snow in the mix. Ok its still fi but theres currently a clear growing trend towards this.

[stewfox]

Had a peak at model discussion and some interesting FI charts

 

I need to stop this manage my expectations.

 

At least you know what to expect in the summer

Edited January 20, 2015 by stewfox

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Guys.... Seriously... Dont you view the models?

Theres growing support for a deep low to our northeast and a huge possibility of a cold spell with plenty of snow in the mix. Ok its still fi but theres currently a clear growing trend towards this.

yes mushy it does look good all tho fi I think some people forget some of the best snowfalls in recent times have been February we've had no snow here at all since 2013 disappointed yes but dusted down and moved on Edited January 20, 2015 by Skeggy Winter Storm

[Bristawl Si]

Guys.... Seriously... Dont you view the models?

Theres growing support for a deep low to our northeast and a huge possibility of a cold spell with plenty of snow in the mix. Ok its still fi but theres currently a clear growing trend towards this.

Thing is Mushy there was a "growing trend" this time last week for this week to be "epic" and a "snowfest", a "pattern change", blah, blah, blah.

My lesson from this Winter is follow John Holmes's posts and Ian's updates direct from Meto.

If we are to get a cold and snowy week in February then i think i'll just wait for "the day" rather than get hopes up one week in advance.

[The Enforcer]

Well if you thought the current "nofalls" are annoying, imagine how angry I was when this happened in December 2010:

 

[mushymanrob]

Thing is Mushy there was a "growing trend" this time last week for this week to be "epic" and a "snowfest", a "pattern change", blah, blah, blah.

My lesson from this Winter is follow John Holmes's posts and Ian's updates direct from Meto.

If we are to get a cold and snowy week in February then i think i'll just wait for "the day" rather than get hopes up one week in advance.

True, but theres potential for another attempt at another cold spell, so 'game over' is daft as the game aint over

Christ its coming to something that mildmushymanrob is ramping cold! Lol but seriously i dont think winters over, and thats saying something.

Totally agree about listening to john and ian.... They i suspect have the best track record for predicting whats to come based on their reasoned, experienced way of unbiasedly interpreting the data.

Ps it snowed briefly here earlier, its raining now lol

[cheese]

Well if you thought the current "nofalls" are annoying, imagine how angry I was when this happened in December 2010:

 

0% Confidence.gif

Is that really real?! Talk about unlucky.

[southbank]

Well if you thought the current "nofalls" are annoying, imagine how angry I was when this happened in December 2010:

 

0% Confidence.gif

Man that's a bum deal alright , that was the last proper dumping we got around here , snowed jan 13 but only a few cm

[West is Best]

Thing is Mushy there was a "growing trend" this time last week for this week to be "epic" and a "snowfest", a "pattern change", blah, blah, blah.

My lesson from this Winter is follow John Holmes's posts and Ian's updates direct from Meto.

If we are to get a cold and snowy week in February then i think i'll just wait for "the day" rather than get hopes up one week in advance.

 

I think part of the problem is that we went from superb charts to middle of the road ones and people stopped really taking the latter seriously and clung on to the former. It became a kind of hope casting. I suppose some of the older folk have been through this let down so many times they're more cynical and jaded and hence better able to voice caution. Some of the ramping was sad to see, really. I hate disappointment like this has been.

[knocker]

True, but theres potential for another attempt at another cold spell, so 'game over' is daft as the game aint over

Christ its coming to something that mildmushymanrob is ramping cold! Lol but seriously i dont think winters over, and thats saying something.

 

 

BANK!!

[mushymanrob]

BANK!!

Pmsl

[mushymanrob]

I think part of the problem is that we went from superb charts to middle of the road ones and people stopped really taking the latter seriously and clung on to the former. It became a kind of hope casting. I suppose some of the older folk have been through this let down so many times they're more cynical and jaded and hence better able to voice caution. Some of the ramping was sad to see, really. I hate disappointment like this has been.

Spot on richard, its denial, some didnt want to believe it wasnt going to happen, potentially at least. Several denied the early signs of a mild breakdown, but it was progged so should be taken heed of.