Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Continental Climate]

of course its cold.... its several degrees below average... thats cold to me!

 

talking of cold... its looking like the outlooks will be mainly cold. bugger!. im wanting a nice fat bartlett to give me a nice mild february... but thats unlikely to happen this season.

Mushy the new cold ramper of Netweather!!! Seems like you are wanting to take Mr. Murr's mantle. Its good that you are trying to keep everyones spirits up and attempting to stop people from beginning their summer hibernation but it seems to me that folk have had about enough of chasing that elusive pot of gold this season!!

[TEITS]

Has it been cold? or did I miss something?

Considering max temps have been around 2C for some locations today, yesterday then yes it is cold for the UK. Obviously not bitterly cold but still below average.

[The Weather Dragon]

Have been studying the historical charts - we ain't going to get out of this one folks - what are the odds on HLB for April/May !!

[stainesbloke]

Give me last winter any day - this winter has so far been the most drab/boring/dull nothingness I've know for a while. Last winter at least had the excitement of some decent storms - will never forget the trips to Chesil Beach to watch some pretty impressive swells barrelling in

Haven't we experienced some decent storms this winter then? The noise of the wind has woken me up on a few occasions already. Plus this winter there have actually been frosts! Quite a few so far with -5C here the other night. Lots of beautiful sunny days too, unlike the constant howling, grey dirge of last year. Freezing fog. Even had a decent thunderstorm with hail last week. So, pretty varied winter weather unlike last year which was just the same awful crap for weeks and weeks on end. Just no snow yet, which is disappointing yes, but there's time for that, some of the best cold spells arrive in Feb. Chin up guys, at least thousands of people aren't having their lives ruined by floods etc.

[mushymanrob]

Mushy the new cold ramper of Netweather!!! Seems like you are wanting to take Mr. Murr's mantle. Its good that you are trying to keep everyones spirits up and attempting to stop people from beginning their summer hibernation but it seems to me that folk have had about enough of chasing that elusive pot of gold this season!!

Lol... Nah, i stick to reality... Its not so much im ramping up the cold as countering the ott posts suggesting winters over.

Theres alot of cold wintry weather in the outlook, its pretty certain, so theres no point in me looking for my mild because its not there, so ill post about what is there and that unfortunately is cold.

[Spikecollie]

Haven't we experienced some decent storms this winter then? The noise of the wind has woken me up on a few occasions already. Plus this winter there have actually been frosts! Quite a few so far with -5C here the other night. Lots of beautiful sunny days too, unlike the constant howling, grey dirge of last year. Freezing fog. Even had a decent thunderstorm with hail last week. So, pretty varied winter weather unlike last year which was just the same awful crap for weeks and weeks on end. Just no snow yet, which is disappointing yes, but there's time for that, some of the best cold spells arrive in Feb. Chin up guys, at least thousands of people aren't having their lives ruined by floods etc.

Indeed, much more enjoyable than last year's washout. I never thought I'd get to play snowball with my dog, but I just did...I'd be happy now for an early an prolonged Spring!

[h2005__uk__]

I know a lot of places in the north and Scotland have had some decent snow events this winter, but here in Northamptonshire this winter is actually worse than last winter to be honest.  At least it was milder last year rather than just cold with sleety rain.  I love the cold and snow but would rather it be mild than this 'marginal' stuff we keep getting.  This winter in my eyes is quickly going down the pan and unless something decent happens before mid February then I will be glad to see the back of it.

 

The best we've had in Essex so far is a couple of brief snow showers which fell on Saturday and today, but not enough for it to properly settle. I suppose that's better than last winter where I don't think any of Essex saw any snow at all!

 

March 2013 was the last time snow properly settled here... so if it doesn't happen this winter, the wait will have increased to nearly 3 years by next winter!

[snowblizzard]

Unfortunately, the outlook (GFS output) appears disastrous for cold lovers!

Edited January 22, 2015 by snowblizzard

[shetland islands]

A discussion on our radio with the Metoffice this morning highlighted the complexity in predicting our weather for a week period, never mind a season. They said that, generally, the UK has a westerly bias winter with, some, colder periods from time to time and we have seen this for decades. However, they also said that we can have 'freak' years - like 2010 or last year when the weather can vary and give us something different for longer periods.

Interestingly, the Met said that despite things looking good for cold weather, like slower jet, Greater euro Asian snow cover etc.....This doesn't guarantee cold here and the Atlantic will always dominate our weather for the longer term.

Anyway, he said he was pretty confident that February will be similar to the rest of the winter and he doesn't see any deep cold in the UK - but obviously this is just a prediction.

[SE Blizzards]

I really really feel like having a right good old moan about this Winter! ....But i will hold back for another 2 or 3 weeks.

 

Let's just hope the swear filter is working when i do decide to have a rant!!

[Severe Blizzard]

Give me last winter any day - this winter has so far been the most drab/boring/dull nothingness I've know for a while. Last winter at least had the excitement of some decent storms - will never forget the trips to Chesil Beach to watch some pretty impressive swells barrelling in

Not just the excitement of storms last year. No missing out on the snow, near misses, or dross like Boxing day, much of last week, Sunday, today etc. Fronts also pushed through quicker with lovely winter sunshine to follow, last year, whereas this year, the dross hangs about as frontal activity is slow moving, such as today's snow let-down.

[knocker]

This mornings GFS run is really the story of the jet. Although it is at times discontinuous and weaker it generally sticks to the SW/NE route over the UK. It doesn't move south appreciable.

Charts courtesy weatherbell.

 

Edited January 22, 2015 by knocker

[snow freak]

I predict we will have a very cold spell.....in June

[knocker]

I see the ext EPS anomaly has LP Hudson with trough Scandinavia (just east of the UK) orientated south into the Med. Ridge SW of the UK. HP Siberia/Alaska and eastern Europe and no cross polar flow..

 

Thus tending towards zonality with LP to NW and N and temps perhaps below average.

[snowblizzard]

That persistent and bothersome 'Azores High' is really getting to me now. 

I literally hate that annoying feature!

[mushymanrob]

That persistent and bothersome 'Azores High' is really getting to me now. 

I literally hate that annoying feature!

 

indeed.... in summer it scuppers chances of a warm sunny dry spell (hence i call it the 'azores enemy' lol) as it keeps the westerly unsettled flow across the uk. its only when it ridges or displaces that its any use.

[summer blizzard]

Anybody else not impressed by the potential northerly. 

 

While i'm sure we'll get cold air into the high, i actually suspect that we may end up with a persistent high pressure rather than the winter northerlies people are dreaming of. 

[snow freak]

I wish the azores high would disappear and the annoying jet stream take a hike south to north Africa for a change.  wishful thinking I know.

[knocker]

Anybody else not impressed by the potential northerly. 

 

While i'm sure we'll get cold air into the high, i actually suspect that we may end up with a persistent high pressure rather than the winter northerlies people are dreaming of. 

 

I'm not. I think it may be but just a brief visitor.

[sundog]

Just too early to tell what will happen RE the northerly, im praying for possible upgrades over the next few days.  Havent had a decent northerly now for a few winters and time is starting to tick by on this winter.

[mountain shadow]

Anybody else not impressed by the potential northerly. 

 

 

Well, any potential Northerly is still 8/10 days away and it is increasingly likely that it is will end up shifting East very quickly as the PV flattens the pattern. As I keep banging on about, unless we get proper upper heights into Greenland any Northerly or North Westerly will be short affairs and only deliver for usual spots.

 

Despite many cold Winter forecasts, December and January will pass without any HLB to the NW or NW and the first couple of weeks of February appear to be heading that way as well.

[mushymanrob]

Anybody else not impressed by the potential northerly. 

 

While i'm sure we'll get cold air into the high, i actually suspect that we may end up with a persistent high pressure rather than the winter northerlies people are dreaming of. 

 

the over used word 'potential' applies more then ever i think for the possible cold spell.

on my facebook blog this morning i posted that " we could get anything from a big freeze with snow, (as opposed to a cold dry easterly) to 'cold' average winter weather" ..... theres no sign of anything mild (as in lengthy spells or more) nor of anything settled (cold or gloomy).  i still think that winters not done with us yet and more snow is likely... snow/cold has been in the mix of possibilities since november, and its still there in the outlook.

no sign of my bartlett

[summer blizzard]

the over used word 'potential' applies more then ever i think for the possible cold spell.

on my facebook blog this morning i posted that " we could get anything from a big freeze with snow, (as opposed to a cold dry easterly) to 'cold' average winter weather" ..... theres no sign of anything mild (as in lengthy spells or more) nor of anything settled (cold or gloomy).  i still think that winters not done with us yet and more snow is likely... snow/cold has been in the mix of possibilities since november, and its still there in the outlook.

no sign of my bartlett

 

Settled? I disagree there, pressure 1020mb+ for most of the next week albeit we are not in the center.

[summer blizzard]

I would add that prolonged settled spells (though not warm) are not unusual in February. As recently as Feb 13 we had a 20 day period without rain here.

[Hocus Pocus]

the over used word 'potential' applies more then ever i think for the possible cold spell.

on my facebook blog this morning i posted that " we could get anything from a big freeze with snow, (as opposed to a cold dry easterly) to 'cold' average winter weather" ..... theres no sign of anything mild (as in lengthy spells or more) nor of anything settled (cold or gloomy).  i still think that winters not done with us yet and more snow is likely... snow/cold has been in the mix of possibilities since november, and its still there in the outlook.

no sign of my bartlett

Someone needs to inform the weather gods about this "potential" as it's obviously being put on the ignored list by them.