Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[snowblizzard]

Let's face it, it was never going to be a severe cold spell!

Air from that source will rarely be cold enough because it's crossing too much relatively warm water!

E or NE always best to establish a decent sustained cold spell (except NW Scotland) but it doesn't look likely this winter.

[knocker]

It seems there is an agent prococateur in the other thread. Who could it be?

 

 

Unbaised forecasting and model watching is the only way to view the output, else you're looking at things blinkered

[frosty ground]

Which is what's happening on the 0z GFS. Instead of us focusing on the northerly, look west to the low pressure system. In the absence of any real upstream blocking or amplified jet the mini ridge simply gets toppled across our shores, making the northerly itself transient.

 

 

I fear that unless there are signals for blocking and jet amplification / bifurcation this northerly will continue to become a transient affair.

Of course you are right..... but if we add up all your wrongs leading up to that right then maybe you wouldn't be so keen flagging it up......

Remember this northerly was never gonna happen in your words..... It was going to be pushed East. ... It was going to topple after a day after two days after three days after 4 days hang on after 5 days......... so all those wrongs all that talk about the jet being to powerful was from a situation of you coming up with a theory and Trying to prove it while most people come up with a theory and try and dispute it......

Now is it hard to see a northerly and a mid Atlantic Ridge collapse after a period of time? No that's the rules and you missed a 5 day cold spell of whatever magnitude because you couldn't see past the rule..... you missed the original northerly ...... you missed the length of it and then you claim you where right by getting the end game right eventually..... that's not something I would highlight if I was you

[frosty ground]

 Posted by West is Best on 21 January 2015 - 07:35 in Forecasting Model Discussion

West is Best, on 21 Jan 2015 - 07:26, said:

'The back end of next week' is T200+ so isn't it a bit tautologous to describe the model outputs as 'firming up' at that range? UKMO doesn't even go out beyond T144, probably very wisely. Given recent events, where some of the models were inaccurate at T48, might it be wise to be take a big pinch of gritting salt, of which there's currently plenty left over, to that long range?

 

I can't see signals for anything in these outputs other than a mobile flow with occasional PFJ kinks to allow us to experience some polar maritime incursions. That's brilliant for the Scottish ski resorts, and may, occasionally, see some more wintry mix further south. That's about it.

And by the way, if we're not careful we see what we want to see. Look at the 0z GFS ensembles and there's 1. massive scatter and 2. a lot of milder members:

 

 

There's nothing 'firmed up' or in good support in that mess. Could be mild. Could be cold. Could be in-between. Not being tricky, I just don't want to see people let down (again).

 

 

As requested this was you completely ignoring the output 6 days ago about next week......

Like i said I wouldn't  be in such a rush to highlight missing every fish in the barrel until you shot one... 

[snow freak]

while eastern USA gets hammered by yet another historic winter storm with up to 4 feet predicted to fall we are left with the 'will it' 'won't it' snow for the end of this week with a paltry few cms of snow ... if we're lucky.  we really are a pathetic little island when it comes to winter weather and I personally have given up any hope of having any decent snowfall this winter or for the next few winters for that matter.  total rubbish again this year.

[snowblizzard]

while eastern USA gets hammered by yet another historic winter storm with up to 4 feet predicted to fall we are left with the 'will it' 'won't it' snow for the end of this week with a paltry few cms of snow ... if we're lucky.  we really are a pathetic little island when it comes to winter weather and I personally have given up any hope of having any decent snowfall this winter or for the next few winters for that matter.  total rubbish again this year.

'Island' being the key word!

[SLAMMER]

isn't it weird that people say we are a 'pathetic' island just because the weatehr isn't the same as a totally different part of the world that has always more extreme weather than us?

[mushymanrob]

Kind regards and a little embarrassed Rob

 

me?

im not embarrassed by anything (other then my spelling lol)

Edited January 26, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Dr. Astro]

me?

im not embarrassed by anything (other then my spelling lol)

 

His name is Rob.

[MPG]

People mentioning 2010 model output again......got to laugh

 

I did see people mention 63 before the last cold spell (cooler spell).

[knocker]

It's official. Knee-jerk reactions have become an Art Form.

[Buzz]

People look too far ahead, that's all there is to it. They see charts a week out and assume that's what WILL happen, whether it's 'good' or 'bad' - the model thread then  gets an uplift or degenerates depending on what the models are showing based on the poster's preferences.

 

You would think that people would have learned by now, but having been here for many years I see the same knee-jerk responses from the same people (and many new here) time and time again. I'm certain that some are trolling too .....

 

 

As others have suggested, we really need a model thread where the discussion is limited to model output up to 72 hours and no further. Would be a nice experiment.

[Mapantz]

So, what have I missed since Friday?

[knocker]

Three blizzards, extended arctic cold and a complete white out.

[Frosty.]

I have just read the latest MO 6-15 day update and it sounds better than any of the 0z-6z operational / mean output so far today, Increasingly cold and showery, eventually strong Northerly winds accentuating the cold, so a high wind chill factor, lots of hail, sleet and snow showers and lots of frost and ice. We have upgraded yellow warnings for snow accumulations on Wed / thurs with in excess of 10cm on hills and temporary blizzard like conditions..all in all, for coldies it sounds like a fun period of weather coming up from T+48 until well into next week.

Edited January 26, 2015 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

I have just read the latest MO 6-15 day update and it sounds better than any of the 0z-6z operational / mean output so far today, Increasingly cold and showery, eventually strong Northerly winds accentuating the cold, so a high wind chill factor, lots of hail, sleet and snow showers and lots of frost and ice. We have upgraded yellow warnings for snow accumulations on Wed / thurs with in excess of 10cm on hills and temporary blizzard like conditions..all in all, for coldies it sounds like a fun period of weather coming up from T+48 until well into next week.

I can still only see the 0232 update on the METO site, is that the one you mean?

[Mapantz]

Three blizzards, extended arctic cold and a complete white out.

lol!

I see "uppers" is causing a bit of a stir again?! I expect "downers" to make an appearance as well.

[Kentspur]

Is this worth a ramp?;-) surely! Not seen this kind of wording from the MET since 2013! No wonder Mr Ferguson has done a runner-because with wording such as this if it all goes tits up for the deprived South Eastern folk....

[MP-R]

I know it would be highly unpopular, but as an experiment, it would be quite amusing to only have the models available out to five days throughout the whole winter and then see how the mood of the MOD thread changes. Only the professionals and highly knowledgeable should have access to them and provide hints. Sure, it would take the fun out of looking beyond the reliable timeframe which, let's face it, is rarely more than five days ahead, but I'm sure it would greatly reduce the risk of some of us going into cardiac arrest every time a new model run comes out.

 

If it's any consolation, the last week of January in recent years has been pretty bland weatherwise, even 2013, so to see a strong cold westerly followed by a colder northerly at the weekend is a notch up on recent years. Without checking my records I can't be sure but I don't think we've had a cold (with risk of snow) final week of January since 2010.

[Dr. Astro]

So, what have I missed since Friday?

 

Some of this:

 

 

And this:

 

 

Sometimes this from Frosty:

 

 

A bit of this from Mushy:

 

 

Quite a bit of this:

 

 

Quite a lot of this:

 

 

Leading to a lot of this:

 

 

Followed mainly by the "Downgrade Crew" before something has begun:

 

 

Pretty much the MOD thread through the week up to now, so naw... You ain't missed much.

[snow freak]

'Island' being the key word!

yes i know we live on an island at the end of a warm ocean, but sometimes, just sometimes it would be nice if we could have at least one or two days of countrywide snow each winter.  not too much to ask for i don't think...even for a temperate climate like ours.

[snow freak]

Let's just remember that last Sunday, there wasn't much in the way of anything wintry for say, this coming Sunday. Possibly hints that something may have been on the horizon but we ALL know not to take anything beyond about 7 days with too much confidence, especially if only one or two models are showing it.

 

Last Sunday for this coming Sunday from the GFS. T+336

 

 

Yesterday for this coming Sunday from the GFS. T+168

 

 

The winds have swung 180 degrees, 544-560dam replaced by 508-520dam, blocking in the Atlantic, LP coming up against blocking over Russia...need I go on?

 

Some of us are already looking 10-14 days ahead to find the end of this upcoming cold spell before it's begun. It seems whenever it is showing something disappointing for snow and cold, many of you are writing winter off, "if it doesn't show anything in the next 10 days, that's it for this year"... I lived in Dorset for many a year (2.5 miles inland) and it was 15th April (sister's birthday) we had laying snow, only a couple of cm's however, but enough to go sledging for a short while, I think in 1996 (give or take a year), 40m ASL. Recently in March 2013, (21st?), snow fell in areas just north of the M4 right up to central Scotland where a couple of inches down in parts of South Wales to Oxfordshire to Suffolk fell with over a foot, several feet in drifts, in northern areas. I recall towns in Northern Ireland blacking out from this storm. I for one won't give up on the prospects of snow until the middle of April, the latest in the year I've seen snow fall, that's another 12 weeks.

 

It may be that what we see now in 10-14 days could end up being 2 feet of snow, or 12 degrees with high pressure dominating the UK. If the computers can't get beyond 5 days with any accuracy, I'm not sure why anyone is looking for when it may end in 10+ days. We've got the potential this week for some areas to get a good dumping of snow, especially those in the firing line where streamers often occur, and looking ahead to just after the weekend something perhaps more widespread... PERHAPS.

 

Most of us have been starved by lack of cold and/or snow for two years now, I think it was 2 years ago today the last of the snow that began to fall on the 18th January 2013 thawed here in Guildford. Let's just enjoy what happens over the next few days, eh?

i agree it can snow well into April but any lying snow is very short lived by then and not worth it in my books.  we have another 2 week window left of this winter in which we can still get reliable snow and lying snow for a few days but after that, forget it.  this winter is quickly running out of time.  yet again another disappointing winter and sadly they are becoming the norm.

[Frosty.]

Some of this:

 

 

And this:

 

 

Sometimes this from Frosty:

 

 

A bit of this from Mushy:

 

 

Quite a bit of this:

 

 

Quite a lot of this:

 

 

Leading to a lot of this:

 

 

Followed mainly by the "Downgrade Crew" before something has begun:

 

 

Pretty much the MOD thread through the week up to now, so naw... You ain't missed much.

I can't stop laughing..classic post Dr Astro

[mushymanrob]

His name is Rob.

Makes sense... Hence the unsure emoticon

[Interitus]

 

 

Those pretty colours that we see on the 500mb charts are not just there to increase the artistic merit of the Meteociel output, they are there to indicate how high or low 'heights' are. To try and break this down to laymans terms as much as possible, lower heights result in the rate of increase of temperature as you move down the atmosphere to the surface (the lapse rate) decreasing.

 

Just a minor quibble from the MOD thread, lower heights do not decrease the lapse rate i.e. the average change of temperature with height dT/dZ. It just means that this lapse rate is applied from a lower altitude to the surface so as dZ is lower the increase in temperature dT from 850mb to the surface is lower. In this context, for rough calculations the lapse rate is considered to be a constant.

Worth mentioning because the lapse rate is an important part of basic meteorology. In fact where the reduced heights are accompanied by cold air advection the tendency is for the lapse rate to increase because of warming by surface layers and vice versa increased height with warm air advection, cooling from the surface decreases the lapse rate.