Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

The ext EPS has a zonal look about it with LP Hudson/Greenland/Pole and HP to the south SW > SE of UK gaining more influence

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Carol Kirkwood on this mornings BBC weather wasn't talking of anything significant this week, in fact it was all rather tame with just transient snow showers and feeling rather chilly in the bitter winds...  Better than nothing I suppose,  but nothing like those lucky so on so's across the pond!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Carol Kirkwood on this mornings BBC weather wasn't talking of anything significant this week, in fact it was all rather tame with just transient snow showers and feeling rather chilly in the bitter winds...  Better than nothing I suppose,  but nothing like those lucky so on so's across the pond!

 

Well Stockport area look like getting 15cms plus, Wed night through thursday, before a thaw sets in Friday, the main cold looks like arriving Sat night, but this is FI

[weirpig]

maybe  it just me  ive probably got out the wrong side of bed   but im sick to the back teeth of people keep mentioning the snow in america. Jeez it was even headline news on the bbc this morning.  Also  can someone mention the jma  model without putting  the words   its highly respected by the met office  after it  grrr.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe  it just me  ive probably got out the wrong side of bed   but im sick to the back teeth of people keep mentioning the snow in america. Jeez it was even headline news on the bbc this morning.  Also  can someone mention the jma  model without putting  the words   its highly respected by the met office  after it  grrr.

 

so am i fed up to the teeth! even in the regional threads, it should not be in regional threads/model thread, anywhere but the world weather part of the forum

[mushymanrob]

winters not over, but its looking like one thats been dominated by the azores high... big and strong, sitting where it has, over the azores, looks like itll prevent and lasting deep cold as it allows the jet over the top of it. it also has prevented and lasting mildness, by sitting where it has.... so this winters looking like itl turn out pretty average, as i doubt there will be a major shift in the last 5 short weeks but.... if there was, it might be that the azores high shifts eastward and we get an average/mild last third, especially IF this verifies

 

 

obviously this would suit me   but is deep fi.

 

at least it would consign this wretched emoticon to hibernation until next november!

 

[snow freak]

shock horror...the UK could see temperatures as low as -2c in the next few days and some places may even get 5cms of snow.  Will civilisation survive?

so am i fed up to the teeth! even in the regional threads, it should not be in regional threads/model thread, anywhere but the world weather part of the forum

I would sell my grandmother to be living in New York.  I wish I could be a refugee and escape from the UK's rubbishy weather.

[snowblizzard]

Great model watching this winter, so much more interesting than 2013/14

But, so frustrating because very little that we see in terms of wintry weather ever seems to materialize!

There's always a 'spoiler' of some sort!

Yes, that bloody Azores High has been a pain in the bum, but it's really been the lack of HLB that's prevented the synoptics that us cold lovers always dream about.

Jan 1987

Feb 1991  

Edited January 27, 2015 by snowblizzard

[snow freak]

Great model watching this winter, so much more interesting than 2013/14

But, so frustrating because very little that we see in terms of wintry weather ever seems to materialize!

There's always a 'spoiler' of some sort!

Yes, that bloody Azores High has been a pain in the bum, but it's really been the lack of HLB that's prevented the synoptics that us cold lovers always dream about.

Jan 1987

Feb 1991  

I agree this winter is better than last winter, but then again could it have been worse?  We have seen 2 marginal events this winter, one which saw snow falling for about an hour before turning back to rain.  if that is the best a UK winter can produce then we might as well live in the tropics.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Much better 6Z charts.  The high never really establishes itself.  Great winter for northerners.  The nearly winter for southerners.  Here in Coventry we have had one or 2 dustings but gone by the morning!

[Eugene]

I agree this winter is better than last winter, but then again could it have been worse?  We have seen 2 marginal events this winter, one which saw snow falling for about an hour before turning back to rain.  if that is the best a UK winter can produce then we might as well live in the tropics.

 

 

 

Yeah i think you should think about moving to another climate, This is winter in the UK, northerners seeing more snow than the south, we've seen a decent amount of frosts this winter, seems you'll never be happy with our temperate winters, if they were cold most years as you want don't you think average temps would reflect this.

[Kentspur]

Is there anything suggesting that the urban masses in the southeast are due any? Or does this mean as I suspect that the same areas that have profited N&W of the midlands will get even more than they have already had this winter plus a smattering for places such as the downs/Chilterns?

Only yesterday the met office London and southeast page mentioned the wording "snow to low levels on Thursday" but as has been the story of the winter- as the time frames have got closer these suggestions have been downgraded we are sure long overdue an upgrade!

Good luck to those that will be buried in the white stuff in the coming days& I'm looking forward to my trip to Sheffield on Wednesday for the capital one cup semi- hoping for a "white" hot match:-)

I like these charts from the 6z which show snow showers piling in from the NW during tomorrow, even the southwest eventually gets peppered by snow showers. This will be a very potent polar maritime blast, the best so far this winter. Even colder by the weekend as pm is mixed out but soon replaced by an increasingly strong Arctic maritime blast which will last for most of next week, when you think back to yesterday, the 0z output terminated the arctic flow by the end of next weekend but now we have an extra 48-72 hours and who knows, maybe a little longer..This is what coldies, especially in the south, have been hoping for and it's almost here..enjoy

[chicken soup]

Wow, you would never realise the most exciting weather of the winter was upon us. No posts in 3 hours! Although I suppose there is a big gap between the GFS 6z and the 12z model runs. Cold Wednesday and Thursday, slightly less cold Friday and early Saturday then colder again from late Saturday onwards seems to be the summary of the models. Only debate is how long the second blast lasts.

Thats probably because of this downgrade for most of us.

[snow freak]

I like these charts from the 6z which show snow showers piling in from the NW during tomorrow, even the southwest eventually gets peppered by snow showers. This will be a very potent polar maritime blast, the best so far this winter. Even colder by the weekend as pm is mixed out but soon replaced by an increasingly strong Arctic maritime blast which will last for most of next week, when you think back to yesterday, the 0z output terminated the arctic flow by the end of next weekend but now we have an extra 48-72 hours and who knows, maybe a little longer..This is what coldies, especially in the south, have been hoping for and it's almost here..enjoy

as usual, us in the east get next to nothing.

Just to add my thoughts .- Some truth in Frosy's observations, when you've been snow-starved for 2 years even a flake will do!

 

But my thoughts are - Beware. I think the next week is going to get very IMBY. I see this going one of two ways, and I think they are equally possible! 

 

Possibility 1: A straight N/NWly blast, the odd trough racing through N-S. In this scenario, coastal areas could see quite a lot of shower activity. This scenario will mean high snow amounts in northern and western areas (Dartmoor could be cut-off in the SW), possibly some places near the east coast too. Most central and southern areas will get the odd dusting as the troughs move through, but no big accumulations.

 

Possibility 2: Late-developing lows develop around Iceland and slide SE-wards as secondary lows around the main low out to the east. The models may not be showing this idea yet, but I think the situation is ripe for it. This, I believe, is the best chance of heavy snowfall in central/eastern areas - and possibly even on N/W facing coasts as the wind temporarily could switch to S/E. In this scenario, the chances are that a warm sector will be embedded in the low. This puts anywhere towards the SW at risk of receiving rain, whilst 50 miles to the north or east, heavy snow. Of course, the track of such a low makes all the difference - conceivably, it could track west meaning the SW get the snow and central/eastern areas stay dry - on the other hand, slightly more east and the rain area moves east with it.

 

So interesting times ahead - but one thing I think will transpire - it's going to be a snowy weekend for some, but probably not all. You have been warned!

I want the second option please

[syed2878]

at least last winter we did get interesting weather this winter is taking the jaffa cakes.

[Eugene]

Wow, you would never realise the most exciting weather of the winter was upon us. No posts in 3 hours! Although I suppose there is a big gap between the GFS 6z and the 12z model runs. Cold Wednesday and Thursday, slightly less cold Friday and early Saturday then colder again from late Saturday onwards seems to be the summary of the models. Only debate is how long the second blast lasts.

Its most likely that next Wednesday/Thursday the high will topple in giving a couple of sunny, cold days then the Atlantic moving over the top and sinking the high back to the Azores but the most likely scenarios don't always happen and I certainly hope it doesn't in this case. Having said that a near 7 day cold spell isn't that bad, especially compared with last year, having just come off the back of a cold spell which lasted just under a week

 

 

People are burn't out, they are looking forward to Spring/Summer now.

[Daniel*]

at least last winter we did get interesting weather this winter is taking the left trouser leg.

It is January 27th there you go.

[The Enforcer]

I think the fact we are getting warm sectors from the N and NE in the heart of Winter says it all about hard it is to get a decent wintry synoptic for the UK.

I think it's even more telling that even when there isn't a warm sector the forecast is still for rain for some areas.

[chris78]

People are burn't out, they are looking forward to Spring/Summer now.

 

 

I think its more that, so far it looks like more of a northern event.

 

BTW thats not a chip on the northern shoulder comment, there is a a bigger population down south so, the model thread is naturally busier when the south  appears to be the focus of anything interesting.

[Southender]

If I were up a hill in Wales/Lancs/Yorks or Cumbria I would be getting pretty excited about now.

Alas as I am down here at the mouth of the Thames, there isn't a lot to get excited about at present.

Let's see what happens though in this rather unstable flow. Perhaps the odd trough cropping up at short notice might give us Southerners something to look out for.

[Gibby]

What is it with this word 'shortwave' and who invented it on the forums. Why don't people just say Low pressure area so that people can understand what is meant. It's a term that I haven't ever used in my reports and never will. I'm not aware that the Met use it either, certainly not on the media.

[snowblizzard]

What is it with this word 'shortwave' and who invented it on the forums. Why don't people just say Low pressure area so that people can understand what is meant. It's a term that I haven't ever used in my reports and never will. I'm not aware that the Met use it either, certainly not on the media.

Agree, very annoying and confusing!

[The Enforcer]

What is it with this word 'shortwave' and who invented it on the forums. Why don't people just say Low pressure area so that people can understand what is meant. It's a term that I haven't ever used in my reports and never will. I'm not aware that the Met use it either, certainly not on the media.

Also, I'm a big fan of drawing on charts and I would find it helpful if others could highlight where the 'shortwave' they are referring to is on the charts, as I can never work it out.

Edited January 27, 2015 by The Enforcer

[NL]

What is it with this word 'shortwave' and who invented it on the forums. Why don't people just say Low pressure area so that people can understand what is meant. It's a term that I haven't ever used in my reports and never will. I'm not aware that the Met use it either, certainly not on the media.

A term used quite often in the states, seen it used by NOAA.. I'm another who dislikes that wording for low pressure.

[Mark Bayley]

I just wish we could       that PV. A constant menace