Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[sparky1972]

well i have to say this COLD SPELL has been a complete let down, temps still up to 4/5c forecast to get upto 6c tomorrow, days look predominantly dry but with occasional rain showers, just usual Jan weather and feb will start off the same, northern areas having snow, nothing unusual there either.

[chionomaniac]

well i have to say this COLD SPELL has been a complete let down, temps still up to 4/5c forecast to get upto 6c tomorrow, days look predominantly dry but with occasional rain showers, just usual Jan weather and feb will start off the same, northern areas having snow, nothing unusual there either.

Yeah, write it off within the first 24hrs when the end of it is still modeled in FI....

[snowblizzard]

well i have to say this COLD SPELL has been a complete let down, temps still up to 4/5c forecast to get upto 6c tomorrow, days look predominantly dry but with occasional rain showers, just usual Jan weather and feb will start off the same, northern areas having snow, nothing unusual there either.

Firstly, the cold spell hasn't really got going yet! (unless you live in parts of Scotland, Northern England & NI)

The coldest air will arrive over the weekend when we pick-up more of a direct Northerly flow from the Arctic.

Secondly, it was never going to be a severe cold spell with uppers only around the -5c mark for most!

The most favoured spots for proper snow were always going to be Scotland, Northern England & NI

But, that could change over the next few days as the situation evolves and we move into next week.

Who knows, you could be lucky in your area from Saturday onwards when the winds veer North or hopefully NE

Edited January 29, 2015 by snowblizzard

[492]

What a rubbish winter so far. It was much better last year with hail falling from the sky every other day and sometimes every day for weeks and sometimes it would accumulate. This year all we can manage, at least down here, is the old light rain shower and temperature around 7C. During a northerly In a proper winter the 510 DM line would be at least approaching Scotland and occasionally would extend into the SE yet at the moment it is lost somewhere near the pole.  Complete rubbish however I live in hope and the next week or so does look a bit more interesting. This is more like it !.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=3&ech=6

Edited January 29, 2015 by 492

[snowblizzard]

What I can't understand at the moment is temperatures over Iceland at the moment are only about 0c

So, any airflow from that direction would probably reach UK well above freezing?

[West is Best]

Sorry, wrong thread.

 

Agree with above though: just a cold day here but nothing very interesting so far.

Edited January 29, 2015 by West is Best

[TheHumph]

So far not a nationwide cold spell as of yet! Quite mild here in the South with a chilly breeze and some sleet. These are not the bone achingly cold days I remember in the 70's. I went out this morning dressed for Arctic conditions and had to start taking layers off mid-morning. Hope the weekend brings us better.

[Froze were the Days]

I've been playing golf this afternoon and at times it really did feel cold at all, this evening we've had a brief wet snow shower but this down largely to dew points - someway to go as the break down to milder Atlantic stuff is still a bit up in the air and certainly not due before mid next week. Has to be colder than today though!

[knocker]

I see the forecasters will have the worry beads out next week if the GFS set up is near the mark. The first low  sliding down west of Cornwall but not the second. I imagine will it, won't and where will be high on the agenda. The ECM is very similar.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited January 29, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

According to this mornings GFS run after the middle of next week the UK will be dominated by HP mainly to the SW and west until T384. Still cold but becoming less so. The main area of interest after a mainly dry weekend is Mon/Tues with the low winging it's way down. Will it or won't it. The ECM appears to be telling a similar tale.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited January 30, 2015 by knocker

[Paul_1978]

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Hi Knocker - I've always wondered but why do you need to put "Charts courtesy Weatherbell"?

[knocker]

Hi Knocker - I've always wondered but why do you need to put "Charts courtesy Weatherbell"?

 

Because they are © weatherbell. But they don't mind use of their products in moderation (excluding the ECM except WMO-Essential) but do require attribution which is quite normal and fair.

[Paul_1978]

Hmmm what a difference a day makes. Many people ramping up the cold in the MOD thread yesterday evening and back down to earth with a bump today.

[Danielvn]

What a rubbish winter so far. It was much better last year with hail falling from the sky every other day and sometimes every day for weeks and sometimes it would accumulate. This year all we can manage, at least down here, is the old light rain shower and temperature around 7C. During a northerly In a proper winter the 510 DM line would be at least approaching Scotland and occasionally would extend into the SE yet at the moment it is lost somewhere near the pole.  Complete rubbish however I live in hope and the next week or so does look a bit more interesting. This is more like it !.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=3&ech=6

 

Goes on a weather forum, talks about hail in winter

[Hocus Pocus]

I think one thing that's been lacking  thus far is some actual cold uppers, yes certain parts have seen snow but the lack of cold uppers means we're relying on good luck ( more so than usual ) due to the marginality and nature of cold pooling sat over us. There's no substitute for HLB for getting proper cold to the UK, none of this marginal rubbish with daytime temps only a fraction or so under the average ( for most areas ), a big fat Greenland High which has been AWOL for a number of years now is the  nirvana of winter set ups for cold. Even  the projected Northerly from this weekend looks a tame affair due to the lack of heights over Greenland, the plus points are the days are now getting longer and the sun will be waking from its slumber and soon the joyous sights and sounds of Spring will be upon us, hopefully!

[SussexmarkyMark]

I think the reason a lot of people in the South of England might be writing off the cold spell after 24 hours, is that the charts and the experts are continually watering down the severity of this promised cold spell.  Many places across Southern England and the south Midlands reached 5 to 7 Celsius yesterday and the forecasters say that it will be 'less cold' today.  For tomorrow, the original forecast of snow showers moving down from the north has been replaced by a 'wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow' and the outlook from the Met Office for south eastern areas (as an example) for Sunday to Tuesday goes for 'cold and mainly dry with bright spells for Sunday and Monday, along with widespread frost. Risk of rain and sleet for a time Tuesday, but some sunny spells also likely'.

 

I think for Southern areas, this may turn out to be nothing more than a fairly average late January/early February period of chilly winds and night frost and, if you're lucky, a temporary snow cover from a heavier passing shower.

Edited January 30, 2015 by SussexmarkyMark

[jimben]

well i have to say this COLD SPELL has been a complete let down, temps still up to 4/5c forecast to get upto 6c tomorrow, days look predominantly dry but with occasional rain showers, just usual Jan weather and feb will start off the same, northern areas having snow, nothing unusual there either.

 

You are on a wind up ..... right ? lol

[summer blizzard]

While the cold is good, my interest is on the dry spell. Having gotten just one front in the past week (plus a couple of snow showers), the GFS6z would suggest well over a week without rainfall here with a single front passing in FI to be replaced by immediate pressure build. 

 

[Mark Parsons]

While the cold is good, my interest is on the dry spell. Having gotten just one front in the past week (plus a couple of snow showers), the GFS6z would suggest well over a week without rainfall here with a single front passing in FI to be replaced by immediate pressure build. 

 

Hmm lovely mild day that one then with a bit of frost at night..................

[Pembroke Dangler]

Cant help but think that had this current set up have been in place say 20 years ago we'd have all done alot better from it imo! I think its got to be something to do with climate change that with a source of air ok not directly coming from the arctic but more from scandi would have been colder back then compared to now its just sour grapes i know but hey i remeber as a kid having some snow from a quick topler that lasted a couple of days atleast but this is more sustained yet we just cant tap into any fridged cold air and is so frustrating

[polar vortex]

I must say with temps today maxing out at +5°c this is not a cold spell at all and with uppers of around -4°C it is no different to what 

I would expect. Rather cold is probably the right term for the weather both today and tomorrow and then hopefully we will see it get 

progressively colder thereafter.

Despite my brief but rather downbeat post this morning ( I was just commenting on what the models were showing) I would love 

nothing more than to see a bitter easterly setting up shop and with the 12z just starting to role who knows, fingers crossed. 

[steveinsussex]

I must say with temps today maxing out at +5°c this is not a cold spell at all and with uppers of around -4°C it is no different to what 

I would expect. Rather cold is probably the right term for the weather both today and tomorrow and then hopefully we will see it get 

progressively colder thereafter.

Despite my brief but rather downbeat post this morning ( I was just commenting on what the models were showing) I would love 

nothing more than to see a bitter easterly setting up shop and with the 12z just starting to role who knows, fingers crossed. 

 

Today was always due to be slightly warmer

 

Awaiting this evenings model runs with anticipation

[mushymanrob]

and this morning....

im not so certain, the models have shifted significantly towards a snowier, colder spell that lasts longer.

 

however...

 

814day.03.gif

SPRING is on the way!

after a cold spell the anomaly chart is moving in the right direction suggesting that by about day 11 pressure should be shifting to our east/south with a mid atlantic trough sweeping mild southwesterlies across us   .... if only

 

starting to firm up

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Rtavn2402.gif

starting to firm up

Nowhere near conclusive yet. Anything past 144hrs should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. The forecasts couldn't even get the polar low track correct last night and that was nigh on now casting!! It all depends on how the ridge amplifies and how the developing low off the Eastern seaboard behaves.

Still a lot to get though yet.

[Bristawl Si]

Rtavn2402.gif

starting to firm up

"Firm up"!?

10 days away....right....

To be honest Mushy i'm pretty fed up with the pretend cold and no snow down here (imby) and if there's no decent cold and snow on offer by mid-Feb i'd rather see an early warm Spring.

But cant see how model runs for 10 days away can be viewed as firming up.