Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Summer Sun]

12Z ECM PANTS! actually mild from 7th, gfs, gem and jma, much better with a decent E'ly, but experts on here say ECM top model in FI? hope not

 

Mild? doesn't look all that mild to me not until day 10 anyway but even then ground temps could still be fairly low

 

 

The only 850's what I'd class as mild appear right out at day 10

 

[Dancerwithwings]

12Z ECM PANTS! actually mild from 7th, gfs, gem and jma, much better with a decent E'ly, but experts on here say ECM top model in FI? hope not

Wouldn't read too much into what models are top dog in FI

 

Here was the ECM's output for next thursday that came out 5 days ago

 

 

 

And heres todays 0z for next thursday.

 

 

So who's to know where we will be in five days time

[summer blizzard]

High pressure well into FI bar one front on the 12z.

 

[knocker]

I have a feeling, judging by the replies, that some are misinterpreting my post with the large plus 850mb temps. Probably because I posted it

[Bristawl Si]

Early warm Spring please - this pretend cold is soooo frustrating.

Weather in the UK, at its most tedious (imby).

Promised so much, but delivered so little.

[TEITS]

Have to say I have found some posts very frustrating these past few days in several threads.

 

At no stage was this ever looking like a severe, nationwide, prolonged cold spell and I said as much many days ago trying to urge caution. Now considering most of the snowfall has occurred from a W/NW,ly then in some respects this cold spell has exceeded my expectations.

 

The problem on this forum is when I or another member urges caution and to refrain from getting too excited this is ignored because we are saying what members do not want to hear. So then what happens is members become disappointed with the cold spell because it has not met their expectations.

 

The problem with this cold spell is we have not seen any high latitude blocking and this has never once been indicated by the models. For all of the UK to experience a severe, prolonged cold spell with heavy snowfalls requires something special synoptically speaking. You need a repeat of 1947 when HLB alternates between Scandi/Greenland because then the bitterly cold temps are alternating between N,lys and E,lys.

[blizzard81]

I would love Steve M to be right but sadly I don't think he will be.

 

The 18Z ensembles continue to be a mess.

 

However the signficant fact is out of all the very cold ensemble members we have seen over these past 24hrs, none of these have actually appeared on the operational runs. Now this combined with the ECM outputs suggests to me the outlook of HP either centred over the UK or just to the W is the most likely outcome.

 

 

Sorry wrong link!

I agree. I am all for positive thinking but I cannot see any evidence of an upgrade in the next few days. Great to have a cold spell but without snow, a little pointless imo.

[> mark]

Just seen the BBC forecast for the rest of the weekend an into next week ....... YAWN!!

Honestly, could this winter get any more boring if it tried!

Roll on Spring, please, please, please.

[snowblizzard]

Yet another epic FAIL cold spell!
I have to admit that I didn't believe any of the cold ramping predictions that some folk posted on this forum, but looking at some the charts (GFS) with -5c to -8c uppers over much of the UK I did expect better!

I've always thought that for UK to experience a proper nationwide severe cold snowy spell the airflow really needs to come from either E or NE off a bitterly cold Continent.

Arctic airflow from NW or even N is usually short lived and only really benefits the Northern half of UK or above 200 metres.
Still 2/3 weeks of winter to go, but I think we now have to accept that winter 2014/2015 is unlikely to deliver anything out of the ordinary in terms of severe wintry weather!

Edited February 1, 2015 by snowblizzard

[West is Best]

More sleety rubbish here. It's the worst of all weather worlds: it appears to offer you the snow you desire only to leave soaked, sodden and sorrowful.

 

Someone please ring the bell for change. Fortunately all three models are signalling an end to this dross. Roll on the high pressure and some decent daytime sun to warm and dry us out.

[snowblizzard]

More sleety rubbish here. It's the worst of all weather worlds: it appears to offer you the snow you desire only to leave soaked, sodden and sorrowful.

 

Someone please ring the bell for change. Fortunately all three models are signalling an end to this dross. Roll on the high pressure and some decent daytime sun to warm and dry us out.

Agree, icy rain/sleet combined with strong winds has to be the worst weather type, very uncomfortable.

Roll on Spring!

Edited February 1, 2015 by snowblizzard

[TEITS]

Can someone build me a time machine and take me back to the 1980's.

[NickyB]

Can someone build me a time machine and take me back to the 1980's.

Could you drop me off in 1996 on your way back to the 80's (at least I think that was my best winter here on the NW Coast).

[Jason M]

This cold spell always looked like it was going to be disappointing, but lots of people last weekend we're getting quite aggressive with those of us who were pointing this out. Essentially it's maritime sourced air and its more of a PM airflow than Arctic. That's why we were chasing some form of easterly. Hopefully we can still squeeze something mid week, but it really is making the most of a poor situation.

Still we might even get below freezing tonight! Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!

Can someone build me a time machine and take me back to the 1980's.

Yep no problem. Next stop winter 1988 :-)

[mushymanrob]

Have to say I have found some posts very frustrating these past few days in several threads.

 

At no stage was this ever looking like a severe, nationwide, prolonged cold spell and I said as much many days ago trying to urge caution. Now considering most of the snowfall has occurred from a W/NW,ly then in some respects this cold spell has exceeded my expectations.

 

The problem on this forum is when I or another member urges caution and to refrain from getting too excited this is ignored because we are saying what members do not want to hear. So then what happens is members become disappointed with the cold spell because it has not met their expectations.

 

The problem with this cold spell is we have not seen any high latitude blocking and this has never once been indicated by the models. For all of the UK to experience a severe, prolonged cold spell with heavy snowfalls requires something special synoptically speaking. You need a repeat of 1947 when HLB alternates between Scandi/Greenland because then the bitterly cold temps are alternating between N,lys and E,lys.

 

spot on dave... i find the exageration (ramping) of snow/cold frustrating, because it usually fails to become reality and is frankly misleading to the hundreds who view these forums. so i fail to understand why ramping is popular... coldies like you and WIB who are realists should be listend to (along with the unbiased realists too ) lol.

[snowblizzard]

Can someone build me a time machine and take me back to the 1980's.

Back to December 1962 for me please!  

Edited February 1, 2015 by snowblizzard

[Rollo]

Ah 1962 and I lived through it,happy memories. I do not think I can remember such disappointing Northerlies as we have experienced this year,we have had one dusting and that did not last the day. 

[knocker]

Back to December 1962 for me please!  

 

Why is that? There was nothing special about December that I recall.

[Mr Frost]

Best Winter here since 2010/11.

Absolutely brilliant December and January with two notable severe gale events, 16 days with snow on the ground, lost count of the air/ground frosts number.

Another week of cold weather ahead with a good chance of another few cm's tomorrow night - heading up to the Cairngorms for a bit of boarding next weekend - Scottish Winter in all its glory from home to the Highlands! 😃â„ï¸â›„ï¸

Edited February 1, 2015 by Mr Frost

[knocker]

The GFS 0600z run

 

[mushymanrob]

Geez... The 06z gfs is hideous for those of us who dont like the cold. Never mind its only one run and although plausible is unlikely to verify. Interestingly its not an evolution the rampers predicted (abit like this northerly lol).

[kent]

Geez... The 06z gfs is hideous for those of us who dont like the cold. Never mind its only one run and although plausible is unlikely to verify. Interestingly its not an evolution the rampers predicted (abit like this northerly lol).

[Milhouse]

Geez... The 06z gfs is hideous for those of us who dont like the cold. Never mind its only one run and although plausible is unlikely to verify. Interestingly its not an evolution the rampers predicted (abit like this northerly lol).

 

The 6z ensemble mean has the high right over us on Sunday. So cold grey easterlies lasting till mid Feb is unlikely.

[kent]

I totally agree. Going by its track record if it was showing mild it would be dismissed as a rubbish model with no credibility.With temps of 6.0 and rising I personally have had enough of broken promises of snow.  As a gardening enthusiast I would rather see my lawn covered with a layer of cherry and apple blossom than a dusting of snow.

[Interitus]

The 6z ensemble mean has the high right over us on Sunday. So cold grey easterlies lasting till mid Feb is unlikely.

 

Probably cold grey and windless then!