Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[snow freak]

its so typical, we get cold weather with just the right dew points ...and there is no precipitation around just dry air mass.  I'm sure as soon as the precipitation rears it head again we will be back into the mild regime.  happens every time.

[Steve C]

Not sure the 70's - apart from, very notably, 78/79 - were that great tbh. Certainly not memorable in my neck of the woods. Caveats being I can't properly remember early 70's and I know there was a historic snowstorm in the SW earlier in 1978.

Apart from 78/79, the 1980's were a lot better here for snow.

[mushymanrob]

P.S - February isn't spring, and the sun really isn't all that strong yet.

 

true, but mild weather in february is spring like.

indeed the early 70's was poor for snow. in early 75 i remember an article on nationwide about the early arrival of spring with flowers, frog spawn, nesting birds all early.

[cheeky_monkey]

true, but mild weather in february is spring like.

indeed the early 70's was poor for snow. in early 75 i remember an article on nationwide about the early arrival of spring with flowers, frog spawn, nesting birds all early.

I think it was more the mid 70s were poor im too young to remember the very early 70s but I think 70 & 71 did ok and maybe 72..probably 73-76 were snowless..became more snowy again form 1977 onwards

[mushymanrob]

I think it was more the mid 70s were poor im too young to remember the very early 70s but I think 70 & 71 did ok and maybe 72..probably 73-76 were snowless..became more snowy again form 1977 onwards

 

70 was snowy, early 70 anyway... some very deep but breif snow in march.

cant remember much in 71 or 2 , yep 3-6 snowless apart from a breif snowfall in nov 73 that melted soon after falling.

[summer blizzard]

I wonder if we could see dust and cracking of the ground. This high really could be very persistent..

 

[Wynn D Woo]

I wonder if we could see dust and cracking of the ground. This high really could be very persistent..

 

You really haven't seen how wet the ground is around here. Its still waterlogged in many places despite the fact we haven't had much PPN recently. A long dry spell would be welcome

[summer blizzard]

You really haven't seen how wet the ground is around here. Its still waterlogged in many places despite the fact we haven't had much PPN recently. A long dry spell would be welcome

 

December 2012 was exceptionally wet but the ground still cracked and dusted in Leeds during Feb 13. Sun's starting to get to the point where it can dry the ground (surface anyway) pretty well.

Edited February 2, 2015 by summer blizzard

[cheese]

December 2012 was exceptionally wet but the ground still cracked and dusted in Leeds during Feb 13. Sun's starting to get to the point where it can dry the ground (surface anyway) pretty well.

Yeah, doesn't take long for the ground to dry up. The ground here was waterlogged and muddy in December 2012, first half of Jan 2013, yet by May the ground was cracking and very, very dry, and that was the case throughout the summer of 2013. I don't remember what it was like in Feb but in April the ground was hard and dry, especially with frosts.

Edited February 2, 2015 by cheese

[Steve C]

I'm happy for a dry spell now. It makes Spring walks (in unfamiliar locations) less problematic. I particularly remember one on a byway near Thaxted last spring, which had become a 600m long shallow river. Not a lot of fun, even though I have very decent footwear.

[mountain shadow]

So, once we get passed mid week, high pressure looks like dominating until after mid month so the tech team will have plenty time to catch up on server maintenance and for the Mods to take a break as the number of users falls away sharply. Should be a good opportunity to get some early gardening in before Spring.

 

Whilst this Winter has been better than last for snow, the complete lack of HLB to the NW or NE has stopped any chance of a widespread cold spell. That's not to say March won't deliver of course.

[mushymanrob]

I wonder if we could see dust and cracking of the ground. This high really could be very persistent..

 

 

indeed... tbh id sooner have a wet spell now, the high can come when ive started working again in about 6 weeks. but thats when the atlantic will kick back in

[Summer Sun]

Whats looking possible is if / when the high does move in it could be quite stubborn to shift

 

This coming Thursday (5th)

 

 

One week later (12th)

 

 

Unless things change the opening half of the month could be exceptionally dry for many parts of the UK

[Milhouse]

Whats looking possible is if / when the high does move in it could be quite stubborn to shift

 

This coming Thursday (5th)

 

 

One week later (12th)

 

 

Unless things change the opening half of the month could be exceptionally dry for many parts of the UK

 

Im looking forward to the upcoming settled spell as it looks to be bringing some slightly warmer temperatures with it. Cold and grey just doesnt cut it with me. Slightly warmer and grey will do at this time of year as it will be less uncomfortable when out and about. But with the changing position of the upcoming high im hopeful for some glimpses of sunshine too.

Edited February 2, 2015 by Milhouse

[Dr. Astro]

Im looking forward to the upcoming settled spell as it looks to be bringing some slightly warmer temperatures with it. Cold and grey just doesnt cut it with me. Slightly warmer and grey will do at this time of year as it will be less uncomfortable when out and about.

 

Ugh...

 

It's a Cold High,.

 

 

 

[Milhouse]

Ugh...

 

It's a Cold High,.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At night yes, but temps look to be going in an upwards direction only slightly. GFS has 5s and 6s in my area for the weekend which will do at this time of year.

[Summer Sun]

Ugh...

 

It's a Cold High,.

 

 

 

 

I don't know if your aware but those temps are the 06z run

[Milhouse]

Good support from the GEFS 12z mean for a settled spell incoming. in 2 weeks time we still have this

 

[Eugene]

People looking for northerlies on the charts in MOD yet we are in one now and they are moaning, feels really bitter today and you won't get much colder feeling than this.

 

I think they should look for southerlies as they'll never be satisfied with cold.

[mushymanrob]

With respect dr astro, posting notably unreliable temp prediction charts for TEN days time as proof the high will be cold, is pretty unlike you sir. Theres huge uncertainty as to the position and orientation of the high. Plus no one has yet made a scienced based post as to why this high will be a cold clear high as imho its got cloudy written all over it with a circulation off the atlantic.

[Eugene]

ECM 12Z is a terrible run, back to boring atlantic westerlies and much milder in the south than this week, i am flabbergasted people think it's a good run.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM 12Z is a terrible run, back to boring atlantic westerlies and much milder in the south than this week, i am flabbergasted people think it's a good run.  

 

agree with you there yes it is bad, especially deep FI. rain rain rain, surely cold fans want GFS over UKMO and ECM, ukmo looks like it's turning milder from the north

[Timmytour]

A quick question. Why were some on here so adamant that we would experience a very unstable airmass during this cold spell? My experience of previous similar northerly cold spells is one which is dominated by predominantly dry weather. Cold, yes, but very dry. Why was this forecast to be unstable by some members?

As I look out my window at a white carpet with the snow still coming down, I feel a "well done" is due to those adamant ones

[igloo]

from saturday its to slowly turn milder and cloudy from the north working its way down this is looking like one of these cloudy highs which you always get if it sits to our west the most favoured spots for some sun and a touch of frost would be the usual places the SE and eastern coasts the quicker this gets blown away the better we have only a few more weeks of real winter left

[stewfox]

As I look out my window at a white carpet with the snow still coming down, I feel a "well done" is due to those adamant ones

Loads of snow skidding off the road earlier has good fix now.