Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[coldcomfort]

'Not ideal but could be a lot worse is the way I'd describe the foreseeable future. Would much prefer dry/quiet over wet/windy and with high pressure in control there is always the hope that it might set up more favourably for cold at relatively short notice - which is not something you can usually say when locked in a mobile SW'erly dominated pattern.  As for winter 14/15 overall to date, 'not ideal but could have been a lot worse' pretty much covers that too.

Edited February 6, 2015 by coldcomfort

[mulzy]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

Edited February 6, 2015 by mulzy

[John Badrick]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

So if winter is over, can we expect spring like conditions and 15 degrees temps for the foreseeable??? I think not.....temps struggling to get above 3 degrees all day today....winter is not over!!!!

[carinthian]

'Not ideal but could be a lot worse is the way I'd describe the foreseeable future. Would much prefer dry/quiet over wet/windy and with high pressure in control there is always the hope that it might set up more favourably for cold at relatively short notice - which is not something you can usually say when locked in a mobile SW'erly dominated pattern.  As for winter 14/15 overall to date, 'not ideal but could have been a lot worse' pretty much covers that too.

I would have thought this winters has been far better than lasts years bog and mild fest for most in the UK. Granted the snowfall has been miserly for most lowland folk for nearly 2 years now but frosts have returned for many this season. Nothing worst than the locked in SW spin cycle of last winter. Dare I say, welcome high pressure, it may end up in a more favourable postion for you guys as things can still change quickly and provide a surprise .

C

[mushymanrob]

So if winter is over, can we expect spring like conditions and 15 degrees temps for the foreseeable??? I think not.....temps struggling to get above 3 degrees all day today....winter is not over!!!!

 

spring like conditions at this time of the year arent temps of 15c.... 10c - 12c would produce early springlike conditions, as the birdsong will testify!

[Woollymummy]

Birds are busy and active at the moment due to longer daylight hours and need to forage more often, due to low temperatures; tempting to think their busyness is a sign of spring, but for them claiming their territory has to start now in winter, or else someone will have nicked their woman and their favourite tree by the time nesting has to start.

[Dr. Astro]

 

spring like conditions at this time of the year arent temps of 15c.... 10c - 12c would produce early springlike conditions, as the birdsong will testify!

 

April 07 please !

[summer blizzard]

Not sure whether to compare this high to a bad itch or trusty glue (cloud amounts will dictate that), but it's still there at day 16.

 

[winterof79]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

Ridiculous comment but probably had the desired affect you intended.Probably come back and haunt you too.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

Chump

[coldcomfort]

The HP does look set to be remarkably persistent, let's just hope we're not going to use up our summer quota of fine, dry weather before summer starts!  On that note, does anyone know what kind of spring/summers have historically followed very dry Feb's? - if this one is to be very dry that is.

[knocker]

Time to relax................................

 

[John Badrick]

April 07 please !

March 13 please!!

[alexisj9]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

Doesn't feel like it here, it's freezing. 

[Danielvn]

I would have thought this winters has been far better than lasts years bog and mild fest for most in the UK. Granted the snowfall has been miserly for most lowland folk for nearly 2 years now but frosts have returned for many this season. Nothing worst than the locked in SW spin cycle of last winter. Dare I say, welcome high pressure, it may end up in a more favourable postion for you guys as things can still change quickly and provide a surprise .

C

 

People have short memories. I had 1 frost.... yes.... 1 frost last winter. This winter I must have had close to 10 or maybe even a dozen frosts which is OK. Have had snow laying for 1 or 2 days. Now obviously that's IMBY, but people need to realise that just because they haven't seen a flake of snow, it doesn't mean that loads of others haven't seen snow. This is better than last years weather IMHO as there were dangerous winds numerous times last year as well as flooding.

 

Surely dry and cool is better than winder, wet and mild?

 

[Evening thunder]

Looks like a lot of cloud in the forecast with this high. 

 

I would rather a more mobile pattern like at times this winter that has brought reasonable sunshine and also frosts in PM airflows. At least there may be some interesting weather to keep my interest in weather going then, like there was last winter.

[Danielvn]

and it should also be pointed out that people looking at averages in terms of snow are doomed to disappointment.

 

It only takes a large event like 2009/10 or 2010/2011 to skew the stats.

 

Lets say we've got 60 years of records and they say that on average there's 1 day of snow laying per year. That could be 4 years of having 15 days of snow laying, 6 days of 10 days of snow laying or 1 year where there were 60 days of snow laying on the ground.

 

I've only lived in the UK since June 2006 and the summer which seemed to last up till the start of December, but what is quite obvious to me is that there is nothing such as an average winter and certainly not in my area. We've had a couple of snowpocalypse events, but far more winters where we've had nothing more than a bit of sleet. IMHO last years winter was the least wintry I can remember as Snowdonia never seemed to have any snow cover, we only had 1 very soft frost and I only saw snow falling once on high ground on my way to work.

 

P.S the weather doesn't care what you want or would rather have or what you deserve or what you should have or what is "normal" so stop whining and accept that what happens will happen and leave it there.

[Bristawl Si]

Well, reading Ian's update in the main Mod thread, i'd say Winter will go out with a whimper (during Feb). I know he's applied his usual caveats.

In fact, it's been a bit wimpish (all winter) on most fronts down here.

[adrianh]

This year seems to have been very marginal in general on the snow front for the UK.

 

I know many areas have had very little but here in Sheffield/Chesterfield we've had 2 heavy snow falls of over 20cm, 1 moderate one and several dustings. I've not been counting but I'm pretty sure we've had around 2 weeks of lying snow in total too. An above average winter really.

[swash]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

Yep, that maximum temperature of 5 degrees in a weeks time is going to feel really springlike

[Chief Wiggam]

It's a beautiful day here with a crisp and dry northerly.... The sun is now gaining strength to a point where behind glass it's heating the house up nicely

[mulzy]

So if winter is over, can we expect spring like conditions and 15 degrees temps for the foreseeable??? I think not.....temps struggling to get above 3 degrees all day today....winter is not over!!!!

Relax - the comment was a little tongue in cheek. Of course with a high pressure dominated February, there is likely to be some fog and frost but the signals are firming on the fact that we are unlikely to have significant lowland snow during the remainder of Winter. Happy to be proved wrong but the writing is on the wall.

Edited February 6, 2015 by mulzy

[cheese]

Yep, that maximum temperature of 5 degrees in a weeks time is going to feel really springlike

The maximum was 6C here and it felt rather spring-like in the sunshine, without the wind. Certainly a huge difference compared to a month ago.

 

It's been a decent winter here with several snowfalls. Nothing exceptional but several days of lying snow is good enough for me. Kinda bored of winter now and looking forward to the first spell of spring-like weather. It's been ages since the temperatures have exceeded 10C here.

Edited February 6, 2015 by cheese

[mountain shadow]

Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...

Winter is over!

Indeed, and pretty much just confirmed by Fergieweather, perhaps apart from some favoured North Eastern parts.

 

For me, this Winter has close but no cigar but still much better than last Winter.

 

We failed to get get proper heights into either Greenland on Scandanavia which meant any air of arctic origin was more modified with milder sectors.

 

The OPI and SAI clearly are no great indicator of getting a HLB block in our local and Stratosphere/Troposphere coupling remain a mystery, at least to me.

 

We start to move towards a solar minimum again and solar activity remains below average as whole so here's hoping next year is a better one.

 

No doubt, after typing this, the 12z's will usher in a 1060mb Greenie High in 10 days.

[Summer Sun]

The high is shown to be just 9.8mb off breaking the UK record of 1054.7mb set way back in 1902 on Sunday, its currently 1038mb over Northern Ireland, anyone think it could get close to or indeed break the record further into the month?

 

Edited February 6, 2015 by Summer Sun