Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

February has pretty much disappointed me over the last decade or so, almost a part spring month now. When was the last time the UK experienced a cold February? 2010 perhaps...but before that I can't think of one, occasionally we get short cold snaps i.e. 2009 and 2012 which started very cold in the east and south east only to become very mild by mid-month and average temperature month overall.

I'm sure we're due a cold February in the next few years...just not this one by the looks of the next couple of weeks.

 

when was the last time we had a mild feb?.... like the great one of 1980? febs recently have delivered more snow/frost spells then mild ones. theyve been pretty average suiting no one.

I could sacrifice spring being cold for the summer to be dry and hot.

So plenty of winter to go .

I'm off out to enjoy this winter sunshine

 

like 1975?.... dunno i could. i loves my springs, but what do i like/dislike more? cold spring/great sumer as 1975 or great spring crap summer like 2007?

 

Both comments are nonsense :-)

Its perfectly possible for a Greenland high to deliver nothing to the UK. Often we will just end up with a great big fat west based -NAO with screaming easterlies across Iceland and the UK bathed in nice warm SW winds!

An easterly can also be a great big fat fail if there is no cold pool to tap. Then we end up with a miserable stratus fest.

Don't you just love the UK...... :-)

 

spot on..... both northerlies and easterlis can produce the goods or fail...

Edited February 8, 2015 by mushymanrob

[John Badrick]

The disastrous runs continue for the UK. It really is hard to watch the USA getting all the fun AGAIN for another winter. Even mainland Europe has struggled a lot this year to get anything cold.

 

You can almost accept that 2 poor winters for the UK is just our luck with the difficulties we face getting cold, but for the mainland to have 2 bad ones is worrying. I was hoping the recent run of good winters were proving the scientists right who said western europe can expect colder winters, but now weve had 2 with the USA getting it all. Not sure what to think!

 

Just have to hope its solar max knocking the pattern the wrong way recently and that now we're on the slide down the next few winters things like 09/10 can return. All we can do is wait and watch

Another hard frost here this morning. I cant remember the last time I didn't have to Di-ice the ice box car. Cant even open the car door this morning because its so iced over. It has been so cold the local fishing ponds /canals have frozen over. My eldest even said "when is this frost ever going to end I'm getting bored of it now, when can we have some warmth" we haven't had a stretch of cold like this since 2010. Long may it last

[PolarWarsaw]

How can the models be summed up this morning? 

 

I think I'll move to New England.

[Chris K]

How can the models be summed up this morning? 

 

I think I'll move to New England.

Or this

But hey at least we aren't having to contend with another winter of Storm systems rolling through the UK one after another...

It'll be a drought next

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Well blue skies here in Coventry this morning and barely a breathe of wind. Not great obviously for snow chances, but perfect to sit out in a sheltered southerly location whilst I recover from flu! I could barely make it out bed yesterday so the heat of the sun is bliss.

If I can't have a white landscape I will always settle for this at any time of the year.

Edited February 8, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[summer blizzard]

Bar the trailing cold front on Friday it seems that the GFS stays the course..

 

[Jason M]

Think after looking through this mornings charts I'm moving into the final stage of winter model watching ..........

acceptance............

Always a small chance but very unlikely now IMHO. Roll on spring.

[cyclonic happiness]

Think after looking through this mornings charts I'm moving into the final stage of winter model watching ..........

acceptance............

Always a small chance but very unlikely now IMHO. Roll on spring.

Well, perhaps it'll surprise us like spring 2013? :-D

 

I've actually felt a few twinges of spring in the air for the past 2 weeks, I think we're in for a nice, warm one. That would be consolation enough for this excuse of a winter.

[draztik]

Excruciating. I am back in Belfast for a fortnight or so. Around where I am, kids are out screaming. Music blaring from a car while the owner washes it, seen a couple out in shorts walking their dog. It's the 8th of February. Tedious and extremely excruciating doesn't cut it! The met office had said dark clouds and temps of 4/5C would greet us. It's the opposite. Clear blue skies and around 11C. Horrid!

Looking at the models, ops and ens, I think I need a holiday. From the UK and from model watching.

Edited February 8, 2015 by draztik

[coldcomfort]

Looking at the NWP it does now look increasingly likely that we'll close out official winter 14/15 with a meaow rather than a roar, so my thoughts are now turning to spring. Cold weather in March or April just doesn't cut it for me, even if accompanied by sleet/snow, it just feels wrong to be light at 8pm and wearing a winter coat.  Still at the end of the days there's nothing we can do about it, the weather will do what the weather will do...and at least a repeat of winter 13/14 was largely avoided. Many will be rightly thankful for that. 

[knocker]

Totally boring weather this weekend. Clear skies ( maybe a soupcon of Ci) with temp 8C although a bit nippy in the morning with the Tg -5C. Still all in all I'm enjoying being bored.

 

[Long haul to mild]

If the best we can get out of the models is another PM shot that is only good if you are up a mountain in Scotland, then I'll pass thanks. If we are not going to see an Easterly with proper snow events then I'd rather have a Bartlett so I can get out and enjoy some pleasant sunshine!

Late Feb and March sometimes can deliver but I won't be holding my breath that's for sure. Last week turned out to be such a letdown with all potential snow events becoming a "wintry mix" when it came down to it.

[Mr Frost]

Really enjoyed this Winter so far - mixed December here with a couple of severe gale events, 3 days with snow falling and a very frosty/foggy week lasting from Boxing Day until the end of that month.

January came in below average and very snowy / 16 days with snow on the ground.

Febuary started cold but now slightly milder with temps peaking at 6 degrees although still dropping below freezing at night.

Only thing missing was a white Christmas.

Looking at the charts there is nothing to suggest anything wintry anytime soon here. (Hills/mountains look splendid throughout Scotland at the moment)

March can delver prolonged cold/heavy snow here (March 2013 for example) but I would also take an early spell of warmth once the clocks go forward!

Anyways, my own personal preference would be a wintry first half of March followed by warm/sunny weather until the end of August with lots of spectacular thunderstorms during the Summer. (If only)

I look forward to reading the thoughts of Knocker, Mushy, Millhouse and Scorcher during the next few months. (postive/cheery posts please guys as you will have nothing to moan about as the chill of Winter will have passed)

Let's hope for another taste of Winter or some sun/warmth in the weeks ahead!

Cheers

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Anything is possible. A warm March is more likely given recent years, but every so often a 2013 rolls up..

Well, perhaps it'll surprise us like spring 2013? :-D

 

I've actually felt a few twinges of spring in the air for the past 2 weeks, I think we're in for a nice, warm one. That would be consolation enough for this excuse of a winter.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Anything is possible. A warm March is more likely given recent years, but every so often a 2013 rolls up..

Scotland enjoyed repeated record breaking low 20s C temps during March 2012.

Edited February 8, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[seaside 60]

Totally boring weather this weekend. Clear skies ( maybe a soupcon of Ci) with temp 8C although a bit nippy in the morning with the Tg -5C. Still all in all I'm enjoying being bored.

 

It may be boring weather wise, however this suits me fine.

AT last my garden is drying out, I dont have a cold wind blowing.

In the sun I can think spring is coming and got a good day doing some gardeining, which was impossible last year and the year before.

[seaside 60]

Scotland enjoyed repeated record breaking low 20s C temps during March 2012.

When you think about it.

Record ish 2012 with heat.

Record ish 2013 with cold.

Record wet 2014 with rain.

Quite impressive febuary/march really.

[Chief Wiggam]

At Freshwater Bay this afternoon. Not a cloud in the sky, sea like an ironing board and the sun high high enough to sit in and keep warm. If this is 2014 / 15 winter then long may the high pressure rule

Edited February 8, 2015 by Chief Wiggam

[coldcomfort]

just when we thought high pressure was set to dominate, the models bring low pressure back into the equation later this week and across the weekend. Whether we then see a return to quieter, more settled conditions into next week now looks rather more open to question, but imo a return to raging Atlantic remain the most least likely option atm. 

[mushymanrob]

id have thought the odds really are stacked against any deep cold now.... and i do have some sympathy for those of you who have had no snow. you could have had mine! but it isnt nice waiting all year for your prefered weather type only to have it miss you out. i hate summers with no dry warm/hot sunny spells, so a snowless winter for snowlovers isnt nice!

[Frosty.]

I must say this current anticyclonic spell is very disappointing and shows no sign of improving either, lots of cloud trapped under this high, sunshine at a premium but at least winds are light, however, there is good agreement from the 0z output for low pressure to move in from the west and replace the dull high later this week and well into next week too. Beyond that, a typical nw / se split currently looks the form horse with milder air.

[Frosty_wsm]

I must say this current anticyclonic spell is very disappointing and shows no sign of improving either, lots of cloud trapped under this high, sunshine at a premium but at least winds are light, however, there is good agreement from the 0z output for low pressure to move in from the west and replace the dull high later this week and well into next week too. Beyond that, a typical nw / se split currently looks the form horse with milder air.

Disappointing, not down here it ain't, clear blue skies here just like the last few days which means cold frosty mornings with freezing fog and now the sun has got to work on the freezing fog there's not a cloud in the sky!

This is without a doubt my 2nd favourite winter weather.

[Yarmy]

As I look out of my window at the crystal azure sky and the bright sunshine reflecting off the frost-covered landscape, I keep thinking where did it all go wrong. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I must say this current anticyclonic spell is very disappointing and shows no sign of improving either, lots of cloud trapped under this high, sunshine at a premium but at least winds are light, however, there is good agreement from the 0z output for low pressure to move in from the west and replace the dull high later this week and well into next week too. Beyond that, a typical nw / se split currently looks the form horse with milder air.

The current radar suggests that over half of the UK is under clear skies at the moment with only north western areas and the south east corner sitting under areas of low cloud.

Conditions look quiet with variable amounts of cloud until Friday when an area of low pressure slips through the UK giving outbreaks of rain. Beyond that it looks like the Azores high will continue to ridge into the south at times, so a changeable westerly pattern looks likely at the moment. The GFS Scandi high solution has wilted somewhat on the 06z run and is more in consensus of the other models.

That said things can change quickly and there is probably enough scope for another weather system to drive south east into Europe which might bring colder weather with it. We will have to wait and see whether this will occur or not.

[knocker]

Yes indeed