Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

WSI Energy Weather â€@WSI_Energy 11h11 hours ago

A strong -EPO type blocking ridge over Alaska to set up during the next week. Very similar pattern to last November.

 

Edited February 12, 2015 by knocker

[Yarmy]

T384? Pah. Nice long fetch Easterly on the CFS. 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

Completely agree with knocker... Talk about straw clutching.

I cant see anything other then pretty normal late winter weather in the offing. Theres a right average mix on offer. Could something cold evolve? Yes, of course it could although chances of something greater then a two or three day wonder are pretty remote and id strongly assert that theres at least as much chance of something mild evolving.

Ps.... Has anyone seen the current gfs at t384? Today its almost totally opposite the that outlying cold easterly that got some excited! (on tablet, cant post charts)

Edited February 12, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

Here you go Mushy

Chart weatherbell

[coldcomfort]

I'm still hoping to see high pressure return after what still looks like an unsettled blip according to GFS, but other models seem to be moving away from that plan now, especially the ECM. I too must confess to being a bit confused over why posting a chart at 384 seems fine when it shows cold, but only last week we were told to ignore charts beyond 120 that showed an end to the then cold spell. I do get the fact that some periods are easier to model than others, but as a casual observer it looks as though the easy to models periods on here are cold ones and the hard to model periods are mild ones - the reality however seems to be the complete opposite. Or am I reading it wrong? 

[Interitus]

You means those winters none of which was as cold as 2009/2010 and none of which had a month as cold as December 2010?

 

February 86 was colder.

[Yarmy]

Le Straw-du-jour. Toppler at T240.

 

[mountain shadow]

Im going to have a ramp and say the last week of Feb is looking extremely promising as I believe the GFS is on the right track here.

 

Well it aint any more.

 

Winter is over, maybe a 1 day toppler scaenario if a chosen few are lucky.

[mulzy]

Northing has changed in the last few days - Azores High and a strong Polar Vortex around the Greenland locale influencing things - end result a positive NAO.  AO also looking rather positive in the medium term, resulting in no sustained cold spells for the UK in the medium term.

 

PS - We could still have cool/cold spells in Spring 2015 - but I'm hoping for some pleasant warm spells...

Edited February 12, 2015 by mulzy

[> mark]

It has of course been a very disappointing winter again in terms of lying snow. Now before any folks North of Oxford tell me it's been good up in their neck of the woods ........ of course it has, normal(ish) for Winter. However down here it has been very poor again.

 

What I have learnt and has been the case all winter, regardless of qualification, experience and technology ........ I don't think any of the forcasters or models have been "on the money" past t48 and in some cases, past t6! This is not meant as disrespect at those folks whom do their best to give forcasting a go, it is merely my opinion that whatever nature dishes out is what we'll get and computers (programmed by humans) cannot really be that accurate.

 

So many times we have seen "promise" but delivery is what counts and unfortunately the deliveries this year, have once again, been poor.

 

Sunshine and warmth anyone?

[Penrith Snow]

Don't worry this winter hasn't been that great up north either, 10 days of lying snow compared to 1961-1990 average of 21 days, hardly inspiring.

I look back at Daily Weather Reports for the above period and think 'if only'.

Andy

[snow freak]

oh well nearly the end of another fairly rubbishy winter.  I will be glad to see the back of it to be honest and hopefully some spring and summer warmth, although knowing the UK climate, we will probably head into a cold phase come May which will last until September

[stainesbloke]

It has been a pretty average winter here so far, only one day of lying snow but that's hardly unusual.

I think some people get confused with regards to 'average' snow amounts per year. These will be wildly distorted by extreme events. Much better to take the mean instead?

[Yarmy]

It has been a pretty average winter here so far, only one day of lying snow but that's hardly unusual.

I think some people get confused with regards to 'average' snow amounts per year. These will be wildly distorted by extreme events. Much better to take the mean instead?

 

Median?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Never known it so dead in here at this time of year..Anyway, Gfs 12z shows a risk of snow showers in the far northwest on Monday, and a brief wintry interlude in the far northeast at the end of next week with another shot of arctic maritime brushing the eastern side of the UK later in FI. Most of the run is dominated by high pressure shifting into different positions either over or close to the UK, most of any unsettled weather is confined to the far north of the UK beyond next Monday. In the short term, a spell of rain tomorrow then a largely dry weekend before we all have another wet spell either Sunday night or Monday morning.

It's so dead because we'v all realised what a complete waste of time this winter has been again . With so much early promise it's fizzled out to a complete bore fest .

A much nicer winter than last year , colder and sunnier , but the fact we have nothing on the horizon with 16 days of winter left has been enough for many to wave goodbye and look forward to sunny spring days , flowers blossoming and the smell of grass guttings .

Just hope next year delivers but got a feeling snowless winters comes in clumps . I await solar minimum with eagerness .

Edited February 12, 2015 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Daniel*]

Thank God we're going to have the Azores High in close proximity to us for the next couple of weeks, With the Americans getting another severe cold spell, it means that all of that stormy rubbish will be far away from us. I'd rather have anticylconic gloom than wet and windy, to be honest.

I'm against bring on the gales it is much more exciting from a weather enthusiasts perspective.

[Daniel*]

They maybe more meteorlogically interesting, you're right, but it doesn't mean that the weather they bring with them is anything short of miserable.

To be fair what we're having now is a load of cr*p mostly cloudy and cool there was 1 or 2 lovely days but that is as far as it goes, not much to report when it comes to benign conditions. It also puts this forum to sleep, another aspect in why I like winter season is that it is more vibrant and alive.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thank God we're going to have the Azores High in close proximity to us for the next couple of weeks, With the Americans getting another severe cold spell, it means that all of that stormy rubbish will be far away from us. I'd rather have anticylconic gloom than wet and windy, to be honest.

 

so would I definitely, no complaints from me whatsoever about last few days, miles better than gales/rain, snow going around me, snowfests elsewhere or going tits up

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm against bring on the gales it is much more exciting from a weather enthusiasts perspective.

 

disagree, nothing more boring/miserable than rain and gales

[Daniel*]

disagree, nothing more boring/miserable than rain and gales

How do you take the current weather? I'd prefer fresh atlantic air compared to this stagnant rubbish. Including something to talk about there's no depth in these dim dry days, it is evident newsworthy weather always does get the masses in. So it is far from boring! what we're having now is boring.

Edited February 12, 2015 by Daniel*

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Brief exchange of colder air from a westerly quadrant enough for snow in places.

image.jpgimage.jpg

After pressure builds from SW over UK stemming the blood flow, turning drier & milder.

 

cold westerlies for this location are as useless as a wet fart and a chocolate teapot,

[TwisterGirl81]

Thank God we're going to have the Azores High in close proximity to us for the next couple of weeks, With the Americans getting another severe cold spell, it means that all of that stormy rubbish will be far away from us. I'd rather have anticylconic gloom than wet and windy, to be honest.

Good god no, this winter has been soooooo boring, I'd rather have last winters weather back, snow in the south west unless you live In the moors is generally rare or lack lustre, I loved the storms last year! At least it was interesting

[Frosty_wsm]

How do you take the current weather? I'd prefer fresh atlantic air compared to this stagnant rubbish. Including something to talk about there's no depth in these dim dry days, it is evident newsworthy weather always does get the masses in. So it is far from boring! what we're having now is boring.

Speak for yourself, wet and windy is boring as hell in my book, I prefer high pressure slap bang over head with hardly a breath of wind and dry! Hopefully this wet and windy spell sods off quickly and hp can again be the major player.

[Penrith Snow]

There is a broad swathe of the Country that has had a reasonable winter stretching from Western/Southern Scotland down through Cumbria along the Pennine chain and into South Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire.

At most I would say 25% of the UK population.

For those of us living in the north the irony is that this winter has had slightly more snow and frost than winter 2012/13 but people reading that in the south will be astounded!

Just shows how different the weather across the UK can be.

Given the choice between 2012/13 and this winter I would take this winter every time.

Andy

[bobbydog]

There is a broad swathe of the Country that has had a reasonable winter stretching from Western/Southern Scotland down through Cumbria along the Pennine chain and into South Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire.

At most I would say 25% of the UK population.

For those of us living in the north the irony is that this winter has had slightly more snow and frost than winter 2012/13 but people reading that in the south will be astounded!

Just shows how different the weather across the UK can be.

Given the choice between 2012/13 and this winter I would take this winter every time.

Andy

not many have had a reasonable winter though andy. reasonable cold spells? yes, some have. the north east (where im originally from and i've seen some proper winters up there) has had very little. it hasnt been the worst winter overall but nothing like the classic it had the potential to be at the start.