Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Glad to see that even if it's not cold enough for snow, it's going to be very wet, windy, chilly and active between now and the end of Feb/early March. The last 2 weeks have been painfully dull for virtually ALL types of weather fans. If it's not going to be snowing, then I hope the rest of Feb, March, April are zonal with very wet and windy spells to keep us on our toes before the long boring model months of spring and summer arrive. I do hope we see plenty of Thunderstorms and if not a cool but very wet summer atlantic summer ahead.

 

fully disagree, if it cannot snow, late Feb onwards, lets have it settled and warm, even if not sunny, cannot understand how anyone can like gales and rain, assuming those that do are stuck indoors every day, every night

[Costa Del Fal]

Glad to see that even if it's not cold enough for snow, it's going to be very wet, windy, chilly and active between now and the end of Feb/early March. The last 2 weeks have been painfully dull for virtually ALL types of weather fans. If it's not going to be snowing, then I hope the rest of Feb, March, April are zonal with very wet and windy spells to keep us on our toes before the long boring model months of spring and summer arrive. I do hope we see plenty of Thunderstorms and if not a cool but very wet summer atlantic summer ahead.

Good grief. That just spells unsociable conditions to me. Enjoy the outdoors. Can only realistically do that in nice and warm weather. It we can just be hermits and live inside watching the tv all year...

[Captain Shortwave]

Glad to see that even if it's not cold enough for snow, it's going to be very wet, windy, chilly and active between now and the end of Feb/early March. The last 2 weeks have been painfully dull for virtually ALL types of weather fans. If it's not going to be snowing, then I hope the rest of Feb, March, April are zonal with very wet and windy spells to keep us on our toes before the long boring model months of spring and summer arrive. I do hope we see plenty of Thunderstorms and if not a cool but very wet summer atlantic summer ahead.

Would I want wind and rain or weather like the last couple of days with clear blue skies, pleasant daytime temperatures and overnight frosts?

The later every time for me.

[Wynn D Woo]

Would I want wind and rain or weather like the last couple of days with clear blue skies, pleasant daytime temperatures and overnight frosts?

The later every time for me.

Yep usable or less usable weather...?

 

Wind and rain can do one as far as I'm concerned

[Ravendane]

Just had another heavy fall in the slippery mud going down to the horses field...I am naturally well padded but still of an age where any fall hurts and not just my pride    Hate this wet and thick slippery mud....dry sunny days, preferably cold and frosty or plenty of deep snow for me ...neither on the cards for yet another year....moan over ...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

There is no such thing as bad weather just bad clothing :-)

[Ali1977]

Another epic winter for NE USA, surely our turn next. What are the first signs to look out for to give us a better chance. Any this early?

[PolarWarsaw]

Can't quote back to all of you. 

 

I work 30 hours a week, have a season ticket, play football twice a week and end up in the pub or around local towns on both weekend evenings, nothing unsociable or hermit like about my life, I'm just used to all conditions in the outdoors. You can't beat a good bonechiller down the Bescot with a Bovril. However, I'm an adrenaline junky when it comes to weather. Do I want spells of gloom/sunny spell and high pressure for days and weeks on end? Absolutely not. If it's not going to snow, then it can be pleasanlty warm, but I want torrential downpours, wind, squall lines....interest. Look what they have in different parts of the US all year round. I can not think of any single thing worse than waking up in the middle of summer after a nice lie in and being physically stuck to your sheets or your clothing for the rest of the day whilst endless sunshine bakes down. You can't move for sweating, you can't sleep for sweating, you can't leave the house for burning - the only good thing to come of it, is a beer garden during the evening. Give me a November walk to work in driving cold rain and huge gusts of wind that take your breath away over....32C...humid plume conditions when the entire day is basically unbearable.

 

My perfect conditions? Late November to late March of a combination of snow - a freeze - wild atlantic weather - wind storm - then repeat alternating. Then April to May of squally heavy showers, hailstorms, a couple of days where you can call it t-shirt weather, cut the grass and so on. May to September, 20c low humidity mornings followed by storms from 2-6pm and then an evening BBQ and I am, one completely happy human. The notion of just high pressure boredom during spring and summer is enough to send any enthusiast to sleep - especially when we have February's like this one. I'd sooner it snowed for 6 months of the year and then rained/was stormy for the other 6. But if I can't have that, then I want at least something exciting as the alternative. You only live once, why surround yourself in monotonous conditions all the time?

 

I want action of all sorts during all parts of the year. Perhaps it's best I save enough money to purchase 4 homes around different corners of the US

Edited February 19, 2015 by PolarWarsaw

[Newberryone]

Good to see you've reconciled yourself Karl to the fact there's now little or no point in ramping up any further potential cold snaps/spells, at least none with any depth anyhow.

In fact, it would appear at an extraordinary early stage that you're already championing the cause for anticyclonic conditions brought about courtesy of your old arch-enemy The Azores high. Yes, we all know March 2013 was one of the coldest in 50 odd years or so, but with the way this past season has panned out, it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat.

Here's hoping the Azores will keep you waxing lyrical throughout the summer of 2015 with OTT comments re: Ireland and the UK going into the oven.

[knocker]

I thought a touch of good cheer and joy this morning.

 

The Frozen Thames 1677 by Abraham Hondius looking downstream to London bridge

 

https://twitter.com/Jamie_Woodward_

Edited February 20, 2015 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still decent news from fergie on model thread, more settled, which could mean springlike, miles off though yet, but hopefully not NW'lys

[snow freak]

Good riddance to this lacklustre winter.  Another one wasted.

[mushymanrob]

i love spring..... but fi charts showing my favoured conditions are not going to excite me. its possible, inevitable even, but im not buying the gfs fi until theres support. ever since ive followed johns advice and view the anomaly charts they are pretty accurate (when in agreement etc). like last summer when the ops suggested a hot high pressure spell...the anomaly charts didnt have any of it... they were right... (on that occassion, of course we had nice spells later).

so im viewing my desired weather charts as eye candy (horrible term), after all, i do the same when theres unsupported cold in fi.

[knocker]

Latest verification stats

 

[knocker]

i love spring..... but fi charts showing my favoured conditions are not going to excite me. its possible, inevitable even, but im not buying the gfs fi until theres support. ever since ive followed johns advice and view the anomaly charts they are pretty accurate (when in agreement etc). like last summer when the ops suggested a hot high pressure spell...the anomaly charts didnt have any of it... they were right... (on that occassion, of course we had nice spells later).

so im viewing my desired weather charts as eye candy (horrible term), after all, i do the same when theres unsupported cold in fi.

 

The ext anomaies, GFS and ECM, are beginning to show some consistency vis a vis the HP.

[marksp]

well looking good again here for snow, North West Derbyshire just sneeked into a weather warning for snow again, could a good covering over the weekend.

[MP-R]

Unsettled first half of March, settled second half of March - pretty standard fare and something I would personally be very happy about. Settled spells in early March in recent years have brought a lot of low cloud and lingering mist/fog holding temperatures back compared to ones in late March that benefit from a lot more sunshine and warmth. Let's have a good gale in early March (not a bit windy like a few times this winter) then a calm down mid-month as we see in astronomical spring.

 

Models aren't far off that. A lot are very keen on bring high pressure in with a click of the finger, a bit like how they like to do so in early September but time will tell. The PV doesn't just disappear so it may take a few bites at the cherry to get a nationwide settled spell. My take on the current models would be a stormy start to March in the north and a changeable/unsettled but neither mild nor cold in the south.

[PompeyFC]

Afternoon peeps - not sure this is the right place but has anyone got "That ECM" chart still from a year or so ago - you know the amazing ECM run that everyone was talking about that went TU as I remember ?

[mpkio2]

Afternoon peeps - not sure this is the right place but has anyone got "That ECM" chart still from a year or so ago - you know the amazing ECM run that everyone was talking about that went TU as I remember ?

Ah, now that was an evening on the 5th December 2012 which I will never forget! It was marvelous!

 

You can take a peep at "That ECM" run here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?jour=5&mois=12&annee=2012&heure=12&archive=1&mode=1&ech=72&map=1&type=0

 

Damn, we were so close!

[steveinsussex]

heaviest snow all winter here this morning

 

wtf

[Duane S.]

This is rapidly turning into the worst Feb i can remember in terms of genuine possibilities of a decent cold spell. Right from the start of the month the Northern Hemispheric profile was not conducive (despite good signs towards the end of Jan) and so it has remained throughout, almost unwavering in giving us any optimism of a late winter proper cold blast. The rest of Feb can be written off for sure. March can of course still produce and often does but no real signs of that either at present.

64 pages of this thread in 20 days probably says it all...

[Snow Grain]

Yes, it's been a poor winter overall. So poor that certain members have been getting excited about possible north westerlies breaking out! That really sums it up! The latest charts show a trend to warming up for March.

[sundog]

Winter 2014/15 the Polar maritime winter or the polar mediocre winter lol.

 

Before the first week of feb was even over it looked like winter was over regards any proper cold and thats the way it has turned out. I really hate when that happens in feb it seems such a waste of a winter month and then your into sping ,although feb it has to be said is becoming a waste of a winter month over the last few yrs anyway.

[AderynCoch]

Winter 2014/15 the Polar maritime winter or the polar mediocre winter lol.

 

Before the first week of feb was even over it looked like winter was over regards any proper cold and thats the way it has turned out. I really hate when that happens in feb it seems such a waste of a winter month and then your into sping ,although feb it has to be said is becoming a waste of a winter month over the last few yrs anyway.

Same. Hate seeing spring being the main topic of conversation when it's still winter. It's the same in summer when August fails and everyone starts talking about autumn.

 

Not bad at the moment though. Wintry showers here today.

[cyclonic happiness]

Almost makes you wonder whether the weather is being manipulated to attack America. They get all the fun :-(