Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mulzy]

Winter is over! (today)...

 

Here in the south, it hardly started.  Winter forecasts by many (including mine) have been spectacularly wrong.  Only the Met Office got it nailed with their +NAO forecast.

Edited February 28, 2015 by mulzy

[MP-R]

The "years ending in 5" phenomenon strikes again... here's a very striking parallel:

 

Rtavn541.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif

 

I have posted previously about how good the early March 1995 spell was for "wintry convection" with snow and hail shafts coming down from the cumulonimbus cells.  We could well be in for a repeat of that, although I don't expect lying snow to be as widespread over England and Wales as it was on the 2nd/3rd March 1995.

 

Wasn't the lying snow thanks to a southerly tracking low within the westerly flow bringing more organised precipitation? Can't remember it myself as I was too young.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the main snow event was overnight 2nd/3rd March 1995, when a secondary low brought a belt of organised snowfall, with rain near the south coast and snow elsewhere.  There were also organised snowfalls from a trough in parts of north-west England.  I think snow cover was also fairly widespread in the west on the 2nd, due to snow showers firing in from the Irish Sea and a trough late on the 1st which brought more organised precipitation for some.

[Snowyowl9]

That was the best cold zonality march spell by far,it lasted for the first 9 days.

Had 4 inches on the third.

There was more later in the month.

We`ll see a taste of that next week.

[March Blizzard]

well said!

the solution is simple, split the model thread, have one for realism and one for cold hunting. but the members voted against that solution - but the coldies would because to them its not an issue!

anyway the vote was no.

Don't think that's entirely fair. Most posters who look for cold do usually mention any potential stumbling blocks in it arriving (and in the UK, there's more than on a 110 metre hurdle track!) and actually do base it off what is shown on the models.

It's not a case of "cold vs realism", as there are a few who gun for rampant mildness to the same extent as some who constantly expect the ice age to arrive. The difference is that mild weather is far more likely to arrive in this country, so it's probably less of a case of considered insight and more of just backing the form horse, the favourite.

Generally I find the mod threats quite civil, with a lot of great insight. People are passionate about their preferences, and sometimes lines can be crossed, but on the whole it ain't too bad.

[EML Network]

Well that's another winter over and what a load of old poo it was. 

 

plenty of frosts is about the only positive I can take away from this winter

 

Far too many days where it was 4/5 degree's and raining.

 

For me personally IMBY this was probably the worst winter I have endured weather wise, nothing stood out at all as a noteworthy event, I really can't recall one single day that I found interesting weather wise. 

 

I can't see that changing as we go through March, I'm now looking forward to the spring in the hope my calf injury heals and I can at least go running up into the hills. 

[Chris K]

I understand the frustration by some about this winter. I love snow and I only had some flurries fall from the sky - that's it.

 

However I think a large factor in causing the frustration is relying on the models too far ahead when looking for snow - it is very similar to when I search for thunderstorms during Spring & Summer months. Great charts FI only to be lost or watered down in the reliable. Grrrrrr   But snow and thunderstorms are often the most difficult to forecast. These days I want to see these "great charts" appearing within T+72 not T+180. And even then it can still change quite dramatically!

 

Anyway - here's to hopefully seeing a decent Spring & Summer - I am glad to see the back of this winter and to be honest I take the positive though of "at least it was not as bad as last year and hey...we actually had some frost and more sunshine this time (IMBY ) "

Edited March 1, 2015 by Chris K

[Paul]

For the avoidance of doubt (again), this thread is for bantering/moaning/ramping about the models (and to an extent the weather itself), not for digging at or discussing other members. It would be a shame if some had their ability to post into any of the models threads removed just because they keep ignoring this guidance..

[Continental Climate]

Thank god its over!!! That's a brace of crap winters in a row, I wonder if next year will be the hat-trick!! I hope not but with British winters seeming to come in clusters I wouldn't bet against it. We had the cluster of three from 2008/2011 which were good and we had the little twenty year cluster from 1988/2008!! I'm going for another twenty year cluster. 

[Eugene]

After an interesting Winter both on and off the forums it looks like a complete borefest most of March and the usual suspects ramping up the warmth when HP is still chilly and can be quite cloudy with stubborn cloud cover esp if the charts allow more of a easterly flow which is a distinct possibility.

Edited March 1, 2015 by Eugene

[ANYWEATHER]

After an interesting Winter both on and off the forums it looks like a complete borefest most of March and the usual suspects ramping up the warmth when HP is still chilly and can be quite cloudy with stubborn cloud cover esp if the charts allow more of a easterly flow which is a distinct possibility.

Could you please tell me what was interesting about this Winter. It was a total  borefest  where I live. At least last winter albeit mild did have some dramatic weather

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please only discuss loosely around the Models in here, There is a Winter thread open.

Thanks, PM.

Edited March 1, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

After an interesting Winter both on and off the forums it looks like a complete borefest most of March and the usual suspects ramping up the warmth when HP is still chilly and can be quite cloudy with stubborn cloud cover esp if the charts allow more of a easterly flow which is a distinct possibility.

I dont see and ramping, (overstating things) just people showing charts which are showing mild. No ones is overstating anything sir.

But i do agree that we might yet pick up an easterly, as ive just posted on the md thread. That though at this time of the year is often a stratus fest for most, western areas fare best. Not sure anybody away from the west would relish that truely boring weather.

[IanR]

I dont see and ramping, (overstating things) just people showing charts which are showing mild. No ones is overstating anything sir.

But i do agree that we might yet pick up an easterly, as ive just posted on the md thread. That though at this time of the year is often a stratus fest for most, western areas fare best. Not sure anybody away from the west would relish that truely boring weather.

yup, no ramping at high pressure in march from me either,  i would rather save our quota of high pressures until later when the sun can burn off the muck, and less risk of overnight frost 

[Interitus]

After an interesting Winter both on and off the forums it looks like a complete borefest most of March and the usual suspects ramping up the warmth when HP is still chilly and can be quite cloudy with stubborn cloud cover esp if the charts allow more of a easterly flow which is a distinct possibility.

 

Today's BBC forecasts have made it clear that 15°C is a possibility next weekend.

[ribster]

Well Spring has arrived, albeit very windy and chilly, and plenty of snow for some, looks the theme for the week. Then possibly warming up a bit at the weekend - Spring warmth shocker!! They'll be talk of heat in summer next 

[stevofunnelcl]

Daily Star front page

 

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/572148046810755073/photo/1

 

Easter is going to be eggstra hot

 

21c predicted - sure would be nice to see ladies back in bikini's

[I remember Atlantic 252]

rubbish again, from papers, my guess for Easter is eggstra wet with Atlantic air, strong winds at around 13C

[Frosty_wsm]

At least you'll be happy mushy, and I will really if it stays clear. Really don't fancy a cloudy high though - they are absolute weather purgatory at this time of year if sourced from a warm place (this one is coming up from the Azores).

Persistent cloud, static temperatures of around 12-16C, no wind, rain or variation is my idea of weather hell. It doesn't float my boat, it outright torpedoes it! But hey-ho, gotta take the rough with the smooth, and all that.

The models seem quite certain of this now, just the exact location of the high and where in goes after early next week still in question.

Sounds like weather heaven to me, especially the no wind & no rain bit, I'm not bothered about whether it's a cloudy high or if day & night time temps are similar, I would take that weather setup over wet and windy conditions any day of the week.

[mushymanrob]

Sounds like weather heaven to me, especially the no wind & no rain bit, I'm not bothered about whether it's a cloudy high or if day & night time temps are similar, I would take that weather setup over wet and windy conditions any day of the week.

 

yep it suits me too, of course id prefer sun, but mild and dry is very useful weather for outdoor work/hobbys.

[coldcomfort]

Looks to me as if ECM again wants to build pressure too far north across the weekend and into next week, it really has performed badly beyond the 5 day range this winter. Not for the first time GFS appears far more 'on the money', with tramline, brisk southwesterlies feeding lots of cloud and occasional rain/drizzle into most parts of the country. Those in the east and particularly southeast of England should fair OK however.

Edited March 2, 2015 by coldcomfort

[coldcomfort]

The not wholly unsurprising ECM climbdown now looks complete, with GFS also now suggesting rather less settled weather next week for most...which again is not wholly unsurprising either. Still plenty of decent weather on offer for most though, with expectations that the E/SE will fair best of all for warmth at least starting to develop a more summery feel to things.

Edited March 4, 2015 by coldcomfort

[stevofunnelcl]

I'm not getting all this 'warm spring' 

 

9c around here today, and still feeling very chilly in the lighter winds

 

Sub zero tonight

 

Weekend, has strong south-westerly winds away from the south

 

North east England, and North-East Scotland could see higher temperatures, in lee of the high ground

 

For the south-west, especially if it remains mostly cloudy

 

11C on Saturday & 10C on Sunday, that was shown on the map, is only a little higher than today's temp

 

Not really sun bathing weather yet, is it. lol

Edited March 4, 2015 by Paul

[mushymanrob]

I'm not getting all this 'warm spring' 

 

9c around here today, and still feeling very chilly in the lighter winds

 

Sub zero tonight

 

Weekend, has strong south-westerly winds away from the south

 

North east England, and North-East Scotland could see higher temperatures, in lee of the high ground

 

For the south-west, especially if it remains mostly cloudy

 

11C on Saturday & 10C on Sunday, that was shown on the map, is only a little higher than today's temp

 

Not really sun bathing weather yet, is it. lol

 

nobody expects it to be THAT 'warm' surely?... only a few favoured areas MIGHT get temps in the mid teens on saturday... temps 10 - 14c generally for early march is very acceptable, we lose the cold uppers, the strongest of the breezes, ill be happy with these conditions until mid april!

[Richard2901]

Not a good spell of weather coming up - possibly the cloudiest period since November.

 

Certainly looks like yet another dire weekend - the 4th in a row. Foehn effect appears to have been watered down to give 11C and cloudy dross with strong winds which will not be pleasant in any way. Then Sunday looks atrocious as yet again a front is stuck over the whole of Scotland instead of just the NW 

 

Last year was ridiculous with barely a single decent weekend between March and September. So far this year is even worse with nearly every weekday sunny and almost all of the grey dull and miserable days coinciding with the weekend. Depressing in the extreme.