Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Daniel*]

Don't forget I lived on the Canadian prairies for 6 years..nothing in this country ever gets remotely bitter.. when it hits -42c and in excess of -50c with the wind-chill as it did in Edmonton in March 2011..give me a nudge!

I'll see you in 10,000 years time, well I've been to Moscow in deep winter it was a dry cold but brutal. Couldn't go outside for long, must have been dressed like a mammoth.

From MO official website -

1 10 January 1982 Braemar East Scotland -27.2 °C

1 30 December 1995 Altnaharra No 2 North Scotland -27.2 °C

3 13 December 1981 Shawbury Midlands -25.2 °C

4 13 January 1979 Carnwath West Scotland -24.6 °C

5 20 January 1984 Grantown-On-Spey East Scotland -23.6 °C

6 27 January 1985 Lagganlia North Scotland -23.4 °C

7 13 January 1987 Caldecott P Sta Midlands -23.3 °C

8 08 January 2010 Altnaharra No 2 North Scotland -22.3 °C

9 18 February 1960 Grantown-On-Spey East Scotland -22.2 °C

9 30 December 1961 Cannich North Scotland -22.2 °C

9 18 January 1963 Braemar East Scotland -22.2 °C

Edited February 26, 2015 by Daniel*

[frosty ground]

frosts in spring is normal... frosts in spring (march) doesnt mean its still winter, it means theres a frosty spell in spring. quite normal.

but as ive just posted in the md thread.... im not buying it. i dont think there will be a scandi high and cold spell UNTIL the noaa charts support it, currently to my understanding, they dont.

does a  mild day in febraury (like yesterday and today) mean its spring?... no.... its a mild winters day.

Hmmmmm but a mild day in February is spring like yeah? Which again is perfectly normal for any given February?

To many people playing with semantics ..... 

[mushymanrob]

I find this whole coldie mildie thing on this forum pretty pathetic in all honesty some people need to grow up. Hence the reason I never go in the MOD thread in winter...much more civilised the rest of the year.

 

but i dont think theres any 'mildies', just people who dont look specifically for cold. no one ramps up mild or seeks out mild evolutions the way those looking for cold do.

[mushymanrob]

Hmmmmm but a mild day in February is spring like yeah? Which again is perfectly normal for any given February?

To many people playing with semantics ..... 

 

yep its spring LIKE , the same way a frosty day in spring is LIKE winter .... but both are normal.

what though wasnt normal was march 2013, now IF we get something like that, itll be very much winter weather.

[Daniel*]

It is bad to label people it just conjures negative vibes ie. coldies/mildies makes it sound like there is a imbalance in the force, we are all different we all are entitled to our own opinion, without getting 'slated' for it.

[frosty ground]

yep its spring LIKE , the same way a frosty day in spring is LIKE winter .... but both are normal.

what though wasnt normal was march 2013, now IF we get something like that, itll be very much winter weather.

It wasn't normal, I had the unfortunate experience of staying in a caravan in Cornwall freezing my Nuts off.   

Again it's just semantics.

It is bad to label people it just conjures negative vibes ie. coldies/mildies makes it sound like there is a imbalance in the force, we are all different we all are entitled to our own opinion, without getting 'slated' for it.

Yeah it should be banned terms......... 

[Mokidugway]

Personally speaking you can keep winter ,but I think everyone's entitled to have their say although they should keep it friendly imo ....

[Daniel*]

Yeah it should be banned terms.........

I agree I myself hate to be categorised, sometimes it comes across as insulting.

[stodge]

Irrespective of the vagaries of run-to-run model output, the latest update from Cohen is pretty much the final kick in the teeth for those of us looking for some colder and late winter conditions going into March.

 

Apart from a light dusting at the beginning of this month, it's been the second consecutive snow-free winter in lowland East London and while we've had much more in the way of frost and cold conditions in comparison with winter 2013/14, it has still been a disappointment considering the many seemingly positive indicators put forward in November and December.

 

I forecasted a late but notable winter spell for about this time and until two or three weeks ago I felt quite confident it would happen. However, the resolute failure of the AO and NAO to go negative for any length of time has told the story. Apart from the turn of the year and brief periods at the end of January and earlier this month, the AO has remained positive and seems set to continue in the same vein (if Cohen is correct) for the foreseeable.

 

The PV has been another key player - while lacking the unusual strength of 2013/14 it has been a continuous presence in the very position destined to keep western Europe mild and eastern North America cold. On many occasions, the PV has been forecast to break or split or shift to Siberia in FI but this never happens or, if it does, the re-organisation has been rapid.

 

I note the stratospheric temperature, while again not as low as last winter, has remined low and is currently below average. While there were minor warmings and these undoubtedly helped around the turn of the New Year and at the end of January the much-expected SSW never materialised this month and consequently the PV remains in place. Even into mid-March, the stratosphere remains cold:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-10-384.png?12

 

So that's winter done and dusted and all those people who for some strange reason want "spring like" look like they will get what they want. None of this precludes colder conditions returning in April and it has been the case that a warm March is followed by a cold April but the key indicators are resolutely opposed to a significant pattern change.

 

Such a change will happen of course sooner or later and we know what fun a summer dominated by northern blocking, a southerly-tracking jet and a negative AO/NAO can be.

[Bristawl Si]

Has 'that ECM' been up to its tricks again?! Lol!

Why anyone continues to take notice is beyond me?

C'mon Spring - put this Winter to bed!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Has 'that ECM' been up to its tricks again?! Lol!

Why anyone continues to take notice is beyond me?

C'mon Spring - put this Winter to bed!

 

yeah agree, charts look crap for us out of FI , ECM looks crap for our locations, best charts are probably GFS in FI, warm springlike and dry from around 8th

[ribster]

Well, not a lot has changed since I last looked, spring still looks a long way off. Roll on 21st June!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well, not a lot has changed since I last looked, spring still looks a long way off. Roll on 21st June!

 

21st June? going away? just before Wimbledon that

[coldcomfort]

I find this whole coldie mildie thing on this forum pretty pathetic in all honesty some people need to grow up. Hence the reason I never go in the MOD thread in winter...much more civilised the rest of the year.

Me too. I'd like to post in the model diss, but frankly I'm scared to in winter. I might raise my head above the parapet this summer thought, assuming what you say about it being 'much more civilised' is correct. 

 

As for the models it looks as if ECM has led one or two up the garden path again with another phantom Easterly, overall it has performed very poorly in my eyes this winter.

[TwisterGirl81]

Well it looks like the gales for the south have been downgraded as per usual along with anything else like snow/easterly (not that my part in Devon gets proper snow anyway, it's rare) and the usual buggers in the north get  it all lol arghh

[h2005__uk__]

I like snow and ice in deep winter, but once it reaches March I start to look for warmer weather and the first signs of Spring. I know wintry weather can happen in March/April but it feels out of place and the warmer sun means it's (generally) less of an event.

 

Meteorologically-speaking, winter ends tomorrow - meaningless in terms of Mother Nature of course, but it's a great psychological milestone.

[MP-R]

As a proper wintry spell is looking ever more unlikely with the threat of stubborn high pressure setting up shop a bit too early for my liking, here are a few chart types I will be looking and hoping for in March:

 

     

 

All occasions brought convective weather with blue skies interspersed with dramatic cumulonimbus-filled cloudscapes and a few occasions brought thunder and/or hail. That's what I like about March - the arrival of spring showery weather; plenty of time for prolonged high pressure later.

[seaside 60]

I like snow and ice in deep winter, but once it reaches March I start to look for warmer weather and the first signs of Spring. I know wintry weather can happen in March/April but it feels out of place and the warmer sun means it's (generally) less of an event.

 

Meteorologically-speaking, winter ends tomorrow - meaningless in terms of Mother Nature of course, but it's a great psychological milestone.

Very much agree, once March comes along I dont want to feel the icy wind, you start to think of lovely spring warmth.

Much as I love the snow, thats for winter months ending in Feb.

[coldcomfort]

Very much agree, once March comes along I dont want to feel the icy wind, you start to think of lovely spring warmth.

Much as I love the snow, thats for winter months ending in Feb.

I concur, but irrespective of what the longer range models are showing I think we all know how Spring will turn out...i.e cold and blocked this side of the pond, with an early taste of summer for the eastern half of the States....     

 

Edited February 27, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Milhouse]

That must have been the briefest of flirtations with an easterly i have ever week. 2 ECM runs bring a cold continental flow but within no time we are back looking at the prospect of some welcome spring warmth. Winter had the chance to produce something good but it didnt so bring on some pleasant spring sunshine and good growing conditions for those Spring plants. It was dreadful seeing the countryside so bare during the Spring of 2013, so im pleased it aint going to happen this time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

surprised nobody picked up the area of snow moving west to east on last few GFS runs, Monday night, will certainly give a dumping to high levels, maybe even sleet here

 

hoping also FI is right, Spring like weekend also shown up on last few GFS runs

[Azazel]

I don't post on here too often, but I read the forums every day.

My weather-knowledge is pretty amateurish but I find this place a fantastic resource to get expert-opinion on upcoming weather patterns/thunderstorms/snow etc.

I will say however, as a spectator, the model thread has a definite cold bias. I agree, the whole "mildie" vs "coldie" thing is immature at best, but the "coldies" almost seem to rove around in packs, shooting down anyone who is looking for signs of warmth or discrediting any cold pattern.

 

It has been a right pain in the bum sometimes when coming on here to seek out the general weather for the next working week this Winter. Rather than discussing what the models are ACTUALLY SHOWING, people are often posting charts at T+180,000000 because it shows the vague possibility of something maybe happening a million years into the future (apart from that Gibby? guy and a few others who are very good at keeping it real) and you will often have to scroll through pages of off-topic discussion and fantasy-island straw-clutching to find out what's actually happening in the reliable timeframe.

 

I obviously understand that in Winter, the majority are going to be looking for cold signals, but I get more of an "aggressive" vibe from the "Coldies" and I fear it puts a lot of people with a more rational or literal interpretation of the models off from posting.

 

I also understand that as far as cold goes, the last two winters now have been absolutely dog-poo for most people, so a lot of posters will become a little over-zealous having been starved of any decent wintry synoptics for so long.

 

I don't know what the solution to the problem is, but I just thought I would throw in my two-cents.

 

I for one won't stop browsing the forums, taking onboard some of the excellent analysis for the weather ahead and passing it off as my own to impress my friends (joke - i try to get them all to read the forums also) I just hope that some of the "gfuqhgfpjhing" can be extinguished and we can all get along because WE ALL love the same thing - the weather.

 

 

Having said all that, I'm a "mildie" and literally cannot wait for Spring/Summer:D One more day and Winter is dead technically speaking;)

[Thundery wintry showers]

The "years ending in 5" phenomenon strikes again... here's a very striking parallel:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif

 

I have posted previously about how good the early March 1995 spell was for "wintry convection" with snow and hail shafts coming down from the cumulonimbus cells.  We could well be in for a repeat of that, although I don't expect lying snow to be as widespread over England and Wales as it was on the 2nd/3rd March 1995.

Edited February 28, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[mushymanrob]

I don't post on here too often, but I read the forums every day.

My weather-knowledge is pretty amateurish but I find this place a fantastic resource to get expert-opinion on upcoming weather patterns/thunderstorms/snow etc.

I will say however, as a spectator, the model thread has a definite cold bias. I agree, the whole "mildie" vs "coldie" thing is immature at best, but the "coldies" almost seem to rove around in packs, shooting down anyone who is looking for signs of warmth or discrediting any cold pattern.

 

It has been a right pain in the bum sometimes when coming on here to seek out the general weather for the next working week this Winter. Rather than discussing what the models are ACTUALLY SHOWING, people are often posting charts at T+180,000000 because it shows the vague possibility of something maybe happening a million years into the future (apart from that Gibby? guy and a few others who are very good at keeping it real) and you will often have to scroll through pages of off-topic discussion and fantasy-island straw-clutching to find out what's actually happening in the reliable timeframe.

 

I obviously understand that in Winter, the majority are going to be looking for cold signals, but I get more of an "aggressive" vibe from the "Coldies" and I fear it puts a lot of people with a more rational or literal interpretation of the models off from posting.

 

I also understand that as far as cold goes, the last two winters now have been absolutely dog-poo for most people, so a lot of posters will become a little over-zealous having been starved of any decent wintry synoptics for so long.

 

I don't know what the solution to the problem is, but I just thought I would throw in my two-cents.

 

I for one won't stop browsing the forums, taking onboard some of the excellent analysis for the weather ahead and passing it off as my own to impress my friends (joke - i try to get them all to read the forums also) I just hope that some of the "caravaning" can be extinguished and we can all get along because WE ALL love the same thing - the weather.

 

 

Having said all that, I'm a "mildie" and literally cannot wait for Spring/Summer:D One more day and Winter is dead technically speaking;)

 

well said!

the solution is simple, split the model thread, have one for realism and one for cold hunting. but the members voted against that solution - but the coldies would because to them its not an issue!

anyway the vote was no.

[knocker]

I don't post on here too often, but I read the forums every day.

My weather-knowledge is pretty amateurish but I find this place a fantastic resource to get expert-opinion on upcoming weather patterns/thunderstorms/snow etc.

I will say however, as a spectator, the model thread has a definite cold bias. I agree, the whole "mildie" vs "coldie" thing is immature at best, but the "coldies" almost seem to rove around in packs, shooting down anyone who is looking for signs of warmth or discrediting any cold pattern.

 

It has been a right pain in the bum sometimes when coming on here to seek out the general weather for the next working week this Winter. Rather than discussing what the models are ACTUALLY SHOWING, people are often posting charts at T+180,000000 because it shows the vague possibility of something maybe happening a million years into the future (apart from that Gibby? guy and a few others who are very good at keeping it real) and you will often have to scroll through pages of off-topic discussion and fantasy-island straw-clutching to find out what's actually happening in the reliable timeframe.

 

I obviously understand that in Winter, the majority are going to be looking for cold signals, but I get more of an "aggressive" vibe from the "Coldies" and I fear it puts a lot of people with a more rational or literal interpretation of the models off from posting.

 

I also understand that as far as cold goes, the last two winters now have been absolutely dog-poo for most people, so a lot of posters will become a little over-zealous having been starved of any decent wintry synoptics for so long.

 

I don't know what the solution to the problem is, but I just thought I would throw in my two-cents.

 

I for one won't stop browsing the forums, taking onboard some of the excellent analysis for the weather ahead and passing it off as my own to impress my friends (joke - i try to get them all to read the forums also) I just hope that some of the "caravaning" can be extinguished and we can all get along because WE ALL love the same thing - the weather.

 

 

Having said all that, I'm a "mildie" and literally cannot wait for Spring/Summer:D One more day and Winter is dead technically speaking;)

 

'Nail' and 'head' Azazel. Your post highlights once again the completely false argument that cold and snow preferences (which in themselves are fine) do not skew the thread. But I'm afraid, as mushy has pointed out, it will long continue down the same path.