Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Ok by August 23rd, no more mention of summer, only Autumn discussion ok, Deal Mushy?.... LOL, yeah right.

You either dont read my posts or have a short memory. Im no seeker nor fan of heat by late august. I likes me sun and heat june - early august. By the 23rd it can be as autumnal as it likes, but not too wet! By late august it IS often pretty autumnal, summer scented flowers have finished, leaves are getting tatty and the swifts have gone along with birdsong.

So YES.... Its a deal from me!

[mushymanrob]

Oh just one last thing, Gibby's model analysis are excellent and anybody who devotes as much of their free time to write such detailed posts has my respect, i just think the focus should still be on Wintry weather for a few more weeks, you would think by the replies i've gotten i want him to focus on Wintry weather in late April or something and not in Winter.

Disagree. The focus should be, and is, on what the predictive charts are showing regardless of the season and unbiasedly. Gibby does that and is why hes one of this sites top posters

[Ravendane]

I am a total ignoramus when it comes to weather, but it does seem when the USA is plunged into the deep freeze with a polar vortex , we get miserable wet and mild weather. Is there a connection?

[Milhouse]

After today im looking at the models for signs of lighter winds on the way. Whilst staying breezy for the rest of the week, it shouldnt be as windy as it has been today. Not fun at all having to walk straight into it at 7am this morning.

[Eugene]

You either dont read my posts or have a short memory. Im no seeker nor fan of heat by late august. I likes me sun and heat june - early august. By the 23rd it can be as autumnal as it likes, but not too wet! By late august it IS often pretty autumnal, summer scented flowers have finished, leaves are getting tatty and the swifts have gone along with birdsong.

So YES.... Its a deal from me!

 

Yeah i don't usually read your posts , disagree about late August being Autumnal, Summer lasts well into September nowadays and even October, look at Oct  31st last year, Spring is much better for those lovely PM Northwesterlies, after mid May it's a very long wait for them hence why i'm so keen to see cold weather as long as possible.

[Weather-history]

Terrible end to a terrible winter by the looks of things. As with the whole of the past 15 months there is nothing in the outlook to look forward to. Just another northerly being cut off, before it gets going, by cold zonal dross which will give exactly the same rubbish to NE Scotland as earlier in the winter: endless wind, little frost, bone dry when it's cold enough for snow, rain when it's not

Cold zonality is good for nothing. Windy all the time with sub-5C maxima but struggling to get below freezing at night. It gives nothing akin to a winter wonderland. It's just awful and tediously boring in stark contrast to the high pressure last week when frosts were achieved with ease and the ground white morning after morning despite maxes reaching 8-11C.

You may not have got much wintry weather this winter but what gets me is that you have totally missed out on a very notable feature this winter for your region....how sunny it has been.

Why have you totally missed out this outstanding feature?

I sometimes wonder Richard if this is a whole charade and you are playing to an audience with tales of woe and nightmare weather. Now I know for a fact you talk about sunshine levels because we get these tales of woe during summer time on how last December was sunnier than August etc...

I have nothing against people saying it has been bad, what I don't like are facts hidden because they don't fit the game plan.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Weather-history

[Daniel*]

Wow, Thats a very cold at the 850 level direct westerly flow on March 3rd, yes Winter looks like Marching well into March.

Sorry Eugene but we've been here before several times, it doesn't look bad on the eye, however yet again it is a northern hills affair with a bucket of frogs for the rest of us, what I've learnt from this Winter is that anything originating from the N/W is pathetic nationwide. I'm about to throw in the towel, if I had one in the first place, what we need is a continental air mass you can complain all you want but it is necessity to get anything decent in this country. When did a northerly last deliver? We had a N'ly from the poles yet there was maxima of 6C! It is now late February and with every passing day winter is drawing to a close, and my patience is thinning. Good riddance to be truthful, all the time wasted and spent some of which excellent analysis on LRF ect, has ultimately been for nothing. The only consolation is the sheer knowledge bought upon by these distinguished posters, It is a shame those have not had anything to soften the blow, as we head towards March it can be a funny old month. GFS 18z shows that cold spell is still achievable given the correct synoptic, still it is in another Galaxy for now.

Edited February 23, 2015 by Daniel*

[Abyss]

@Daniel. We had no true northerly this year. Mixed with warm sectors and no high latitude blocking etc.

In December 2010, the second cold spell came from the north. Met office "However, a second spell of severe weather began on Thursday 16 December as very cold Arctic air pushed down across the UK from the north. Snow showers affected the north and west on Friday 17 December, while there was heavier snow across southern England and Wales on Saturday 18 December. Further heavy snow affected south-west England on Monday 20 December. The UK remained under bitterly cold Arctic air until Boxing Day, with day time temperatures again failing to rise above freezing and very severe frosts."

The Northerly's this year were wishy washy even for my location which usually benefits well from them. Not every Easterly delivers well either even for easterly locations but obviously you will fair better from one than a northerly. All areas can do well from a proper Northerly or an Easterly as 2010 proves.

Edited February 24, 2015 by -Bomber-

[mushymanrob]

Yeah i don't usually read your posts , disagree about late August being Autumnal, Summer lasts well into September nowadays and even October, look at Oct  31st last year, Spring is much better for those lovely PM Northwesterlies, after mid May it's a very long wait for them hence why i'm so keen to see cold weather as long as possible.

 

yep, but its the same old argument again about what constitutes summer. summer like weather can last into october, true, and if you overlook the shortening days, the low level of the sun, and the autumnal vegetation (that doesnt have the lush fresh growth of spring and summer) let alone the quiet birds and lack of swifts screaming overhead etc then its still summer!

but i dont.

ive said many times, ive put it in my sig, that summer is far far more then just sun and heat.

august is the transition month. early august is still summer, but by late august most of the 'other things' that constitute summer are finished.

i much prefer the cooler, fresher feel that spring has, with the fresh air scented with new growth. 12-17c in spring is far more appealing to me then autumnal arrestment of plant growth, decay, even if temps are 15-23c. so im no fan of autumn, i dont care how warm autumn can be, autumns my 'dead season' like summer is for most of you coldies.

i actually like a clear, clean northwesterly in summer! ok as long as its not too wet, it can produce some splendid air, fresh and ozone filled..

[knocker]

 Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81  Â·  3h 3 hours ago

Strong signal from latest EC32 continues and that is for increasing settled and anticyclonic conditions as March progresses

[knocker]

Oh the joy of the GFS

Chart weatherbell

 

[Eugene]

As soon as March comes around so do the synoptics for coldies anyway, Polar Maritime and I kept mentioning the risk of Winter continuing into March, i'm expecting some cold wet conditions too.

[mushymanrob]

Oh the joy of the GFS

Chart weatherbell

 

looks like a typical summer chart to me!

[Eugene]

Looking forward to Summer in March.  

Edited February 25, 2015 by Eugene

[Eugene]

There is a major difference, Eugene - spring-like warmth is possible now, in February. Wintry weather isn't a possibility in August for us, and isn't for virtually everywhere in the UK unless you live on Ben Nevis.

 

We might get a frost in September but that's it. In March, summery weather can occur with temperatures in the low twenties, as in 2012.

 

By the time October rolls around, my interest in snow and cold increases, but snow isn't a real possibility until late November usually, and even December isn't a sure thing for

snow. Simple fact of the matter - pleasant warm weather is far more likely than snow.

 

 

Like i said wintry weather is still possible in March and tonights runs back that up, it's ironic both you and Mushy were giving me grief over daring to mention Winter isn't over and just a few days later the cold crew are back.

[knocker]

I know not why but this image keeps flashing into my head

 

[knocker]

Oh the futility of looking at one run. Still could be the first barby of the year

Chart weatherbell

 

[Paul]

That has got to be one of the weirdest temperature colour gradients I've ever seen! But either way - with an absolute max of 13.4c according to the top, not sure I'd be digging the bbq out.  

[knocker]

Yes RM rather likes his colour shades but can be confusing. Re bbq one musn't forget the Cornish microclimate.

[mushymanrob]

Like i said wintry weather is still possible in March and tonights runs back that up, it's ironic both you and Mushy were giving me grief over daring to mention Winter isn't over and just a few days later the cold crew are back.

 

frosts in spring is normal... frosts in spring (march) doesnt mean its still winter, it means theres a frosty spell in spring. quite normal.

but as ive just posted in the md thread.... im not buying it. i dont think there will be a scandi high and cold spell UNTIL the noaa charts support it, currently to my understanding, they dont.

does a  mild day in febraury (like yesterday and today) mean its spring?... no.... its a mild winters day.

[cheeky_monkey]

Have to say that having become so accustom to the cold and long drawn out winters..im a little bit disappointed by my first winter back in the UK..I have only had to don my jumper on a very few occasions and my lovely (expensive) great coat I used to wear in the depths of the Canadian winter is all lonely and unused tucked away in my wardrobe...cant believe spring officially starts on Sunday.

[davehsug]

mushymanrob, on 26 Feb 2015 - 10:52, said:

frosts in spring is normal... frosts in spring (march) doesnt mean its still winter, it means theres a frosty spell in spring. quite normal.

but as ive just posted in the md thread.... im not buying it. i dont think there will be a scandi high and cold spell UNTIL the noaa charts support it, currently to my understanding, they dont.

does a  mild day in febraury (like yesterday and today) mean its spring?... no.... its a mild winters day.

Actually Rob, I'm pretty angry, that somebody who hasn't been around for weeks, is now back spouting the usual pie in the sky stuff & has the nerve to criticise posters who are here all year, because they don't buy such "pie".

[cheeky_monkey]

Actually Rob, I'm pretty angry, that somebody who hasn't been around for weeks, is now back spouting the usual pie in the sky stuff & has the nerve to criticise posters who are here all year, because they don't buy such "pie".

I find this whole coldie mildie thing on this forum pretty pathetic in all honesty some people need to grow up. Hence the reason I never go in the MOD thread in winter...much more civilised the rest of the year.

[Daniel*]

Have to say that having become so accustom to the cold and long drawn out winters..im a little bit disappointed by my first winter back in the UK..I have only had to don my jumper on a very few occasions and my lovely (expensive) great coat I used to wear in the depths of the Canadian winter is all lonely and unused tucked away in my wardrobe...cant believe spring officially starts on Sunday.

Hold onto your thermals would be my advice, it appears Winter is not a done deal. It was bitter in the memorable March 2013 it really went into your bones, do not let the calendar fool you.

[cheeky_monkey]

Hold onto your thermals would be my advice, it appears Winter is not a done deal. It was bitter in the memorable March 2013 it really went into your bones, do not let the calendar fool you.

Don't forget I lived on the Canadian prairies for 6 years..nothing in this country ever gets remotely bitter.. when it hits -42c and in excess of -50c with the wind-chill as it did in Edmonton in March 2011..give me a nudge!