Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

been pretty normal here... but ive had snow and a couple of ice days. the only thing ive missed out on is fog. its certainly not been mild.

[cobbett]

Who'll be monitoring the OPI on a daily basis from next Oct then ? Think I may give a it a miss this year - shame as seemed to promise so much when all the hype started back then !

[Nath]

This winter has been "better" than last winter in so much that I have seen a snowflake this time!

 

I do miss the proper winters of my youth in the 1980s.   If nature were to throw us one for old times sake any year soon, this country wouldn't know what had hit it 

 

And whilst she is at it, if mother nature could throw us an old time "proper summer" with lovely weather and proper thunderstorms that would be great.  Thanks in advance MN.

[Summer Sun]

1051mb? If that was to materialise, that would be nearly breaking the record for highest barometric pressure, wouldn't it?

 

Yep 1054.7 is the record set on Jan 31st 1902 in Aberdeen

[gottolovethisweather]

To bring it in all into context, February is doing well in terms of the "mean Temperature departure from the norm" in my neck of the woods with that statistic currently at -2.8c and we'll soon be half way through the month.   In terms of Air Frosts, February 2014 witnessed zero, February 2015 with 10 so far, no contest. 

 

Little else of substance as to what might make the current weather a fascinating spell other than the above really though. December and January at least had some snow as well and a generally average feel to things. Rarely does a spell provide such indifferences from the norm so in that aspect, Winter 2014/15 bucks the trend.

Edited February 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

Yep 1054.7 is the record set on Jan 31st 1902 in Aberdeen

 

Mr Data eat your heart out. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

so far this Feb not as good as last year, this day last year tues 11th I had lying snow, not a flake this Feb

Edited February 11, 2015 by Paul

[Timmytour]

been pretty normal here... but ive had snow and a couple of ice days. the only thing ive missed out on is fog. its certainly not been mild.

I was just thinking that I can't remember the last time I had to drive to work in an even moderately thick fog

[coldcomfort]

Well in the absence of any guaranteed cold, I'm relatively happy with the model output atm. Much prefer dry, quiet conditions over wet and windy, so the promise of rising pressure after a brief unsettled blip is better than nothing imo. As for the remainder of 'official winter', I think Phil summed things up pretty well earlier, with any proper block induced cold looking very unlikely before 23:59hrs on Feb 28th. 

[draztik]

When folk start posting day 15/16 charts from the GFS to highlight a potential cold spell, you know how grim it truly is.

Edited February 11, 2015 by draztik

[I remember Atlantic 252]

When folk start posting day 15/16 charts from the GFS to highlight a potential cold spell, you know how grim it truly is.

 

yeah, Feb is a poor month for cold, but hopefully next weeks high will be clean, after mondays front air looks clearer

[knocker]

I seem to recollect not long ago many dogmatically stating it was quite pointless posting single charts post T162 as they never verify. Now i see the 384 club has been formed that rewards it's members if they post charts at T384 as long as they portray an arctic blast. If you post one with positive temps anomalies the fate of being blackballed awaits. Go figure.

[cobbett]

A positive temp anomaly chart is not particularly interesting though is it and not what I suspect the majortity want to see in winter ! Those charts are jff with good reason but at least they offer some albeit remote hope for coldies

[knocker]

A positive temp anomaly chart is not particularly interesting though is it and not what I suspect the majortity want to see in winter ! Those charts are jff with good reason but at least they offer some albeit remote hope for coldies

 

I was attempting to make a couple of points in a semi humorous way.

 

1) It's a prime example of the double standards that exist in the thread.

2) it's totally pointless taking one chart, from one model, from one run and at T384 whilst at the same time making no attempt at any sensible analysis. It's a prime example of the desperate search for cold, which in itself is not a problem, that  totally skews the thread.

 

I'm puzzled as to how that gives people hope rather than just being misleading.

[RRW14]

This winter has been "better" than last winter in so much that I have seen a snowflake this time!

 

I do miss the proper winters of my youth in the 1980s.   If nature were to throw us one for old times sake any year soon, this country wouldn't know what had hit it 

 

And whilst she is at it, if mother nature could throw us an old time "proper summer" with lovely weather and proper thunderstorms that would be great.  Thanks in advance MN.

You means those winters none of which was as cold as 2009/2010 and none of which had a month as cold as December 2010?

[ANYWEATHER]

Anticyclonic gloom ,Either makes you sad .mad or ready for bed,  A happy High pressure , makes you snappy and whacky and anything snacky.

[Ravendane]

Its the roller coaster of expectation and disappointment that gets to me, and all my fault!  Of course the histrionics of the Daily Excess need to be totally ignored but still, they do give a glimmer of hope to the desperate snow addicts like me...then of course there is the Netweather five day forecasts...the ones that say there is a 95 percent chance of snow at my post code...right up to a couple of hours before it is due and it changes to zero....aaaaaarrrghhh!

[Froze were the Days]

In terms of a 'wintry feel' i.e. frosts, chilly days etc. so far I'll give this winter a 4/10 but in terms of snowfall and lying snow it's been fairly poor in my back yard with only 1 day of lying snow at 9 a.m. (1cm) and that was gone by noon so on that front maybe 2/10.

 

Disappointing considering the background signals were fairly favourable - makes you wonder just how much can you read into them?

[Crepuscular Ray]

 

 

Disappointing considering the background signals were fairly favourable - makes you wonder just how much can you read into them?

Judging so far this winter, you can't at all.

[knocker]

It is not being misleading all we do is show what is there, perhaps more so with colder solutions. But so what we all have perferences, we are not meteorologists so does it really matter? well some are, knocker we do not need permission from you to do so? you seem keen to dish out mild charts? no one has the right to say who should post what, it is directly model output related therefore it is applicable.

 

I wasn't aware I was telling anyone what to post. But I do reserve the right to disagree if I think posting a single chart at T384 is ridiculous irrespective of personal preference. And if people are doing it to give cold lovers hope then it is misleading because it's got as much chance of verifying as me becoming a mod. Surely you are not questioning my well earned reputation as a completely unbiased poster?

[mcweather]

I wasn't aware I was telling anyone what to post. But I do reserve the right to disagree if I think posting a single chart at T384 is ridiculous irrespective of personal preference. And if people are doing it to give cold lovers hope then it is misleading because it's got as much chance of verifying as me becoming a mod. Surely you are not questioning my well earned reputation as a completely unbiased poster?

 

To be fair Knocker and with the utmost respect for your great experience you can no more say that  the gfs 12z  chart at 384 won't verify than the rest of us.

Especially bearing in mind that it was what your fellow professionals at ECMWF were suggesting would happen in the 32 dayer at the beginning of the month.

Edited February 11, 2015 by mcweather

[knocker]

You could never be a mod!   A rocker perhaps...

 

Those were the days, Brighton 1964.

[knocker]

To be fair Knocker and with the utmost respect for your great experience you can no more say that  the gfs 12z  chart at 384 won't verify than the rest of us.

Especially bearing in mind that it was what your fellow professionals at ECMWF were suggesting would happen in the 32 dayer at the beginning of the month.

 

I think comparing the EC32 with one chart, from one run, from one model at T384 is, shall we say, slightly disingenuous.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stick to Model moans/banter in here, And not other members..

Thanks, PM

[TEITS]

Im going to have a ramp and say the last week of Feb is looking extremely promising as I believe the GFS is on the right track here.