Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Nath]

I guess the reason the models are fluctuating wildly is that mother nature herself hasnt decided what weather to throw at us next week!!

[Frosty_wsm]

Probably cold grey and windless then!

I'd happily take that over crap mild south westerly winds any day!

[knocker]

Probably cold grey and windless then!

 

Or even coldish grey South westerlies

[Nouska]

The GFS 0600z run

 

 

That's the IPCC dragon, Knocker - tsk tsk.

 

This is the one you need for the GFS.

 

[knocker]

That's the IPCC dragon, Knocker - tsk tsk.

 

This is the one you need for the GFS.

 

 

Quite right Nouska. What on earth was I thinking of.

[Timmytour]

Why is that? There was nothing special about December that I recall.

There was a distinct lack of cold rampers around then :-). Wouldn't mind going back to there in a back to the future style!

The mean CET for that month was 1.8c In the last 23 years we've only had one year that featured a month under 2c...2010 which had 2 such months! In the preceding 14 years we had eight months in seven such years!

Mind you...after that classis 62/63 winter, there was only 2 months in the next 15 years with a mean CET under 2c

[blizzard81]

A quick question. Why were some on here so adamant that we would experience a very unstable airmass during this cold spell? My experience of previous similar northerly cold spells is one which is dominated by predominantly dry weather. Cold, yes, but very dry. Why was this forecast to be unstable by some members?

[Paul_1978]

A quick question. Why were some on here so adamant that we would experience a very unstable airmass during this cold spell? My experience of previous similar northerly cold spells is one which is dominated by predominantly dry weather. Cold, yes, but very dry. Why was this forecast to be unstable by some members?

This doesn't look very stable:

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-31058823

[Timmytour]

A quick question. Why were some on here so adamant that we would experience a very unstable airmass during this cold spell? My experience of previous similar northerly cold spells is one which is dominated by predominantly dry weather. Cold, yes, but very dry. Why was this forecast to be unstable by some members?

I'm sure this would be easier to address if you provided a specific quote or two. It certainly wasn't dry in my neck of the woods yesterday. Or are you talking about the coming week? in which case how do you know how their forecasts have worked out?

[blizzard81]

Yeah back to what i was saying yesterday, some moderation of the deep cold nights of the week ahead likely but still on the chilly side, any breakdown to mild SW'lys seems an eternity away.

 

Can't believe the doom, we are in a blocked setup and the high could retrogress, there is no sign of a wet mild zonal setup which we should all be thankful for.

I will keep this short and sweet. Most on here love snow. Reason for some doom and gloom - most on here have been starved of snow for 2 full years. In these circumstances, dry, cold charts just don't cut the mustard I am afraid.

[blizzard81]

This doesn't look very stable:http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-31058823

I was talking about organised troughs which did not materialise. What you refer to was very localised and confined to generally higher elevations.

[Frosty_wsm]

I will keep this short and sweet. Most on here love snow. Reason for some doom and gloom - most on here have been starved of snow for 2 full years. In these circumstances, dry, cold charts just don't cut the mustard I am afraid.

Don't cut the mustard for you maybe but dry & cold beats mild rubbish as far as I'm concerned so I'm happy with what the current charts show.

[knocker]

If we assume that HP is going to be a dominant factor regarding our weather in the near future it seems rather pointless dissecting every run vis a vis detail as the key question is going to be the exact position of the HP and that's no doubt going to vary with every run. For example there is a difference of around 13C with the 850mb temps at T192 between the 06z and the 12z GFS

Edited February 1, 2015 by knocker

[snow mad]

This winter so far has been shocking! Even this recent spell has been rubbish. Nothing settles and it all melts within hours so it's just been teasing us. I'm now writing off this winter as a dud because it's been crap here in February since 91 and I think something has changed to stop us having another. People say what about March 13? Well down here that was crap to! Again nothing stuck around and was to soggy to do anything with, so in my eyes it's been to long since a proper easterly has been here so am now looking forward to a nice warm spring but that probably won't happen due to an SSW or something and prolong the slushy stuff until June !! There rant over now back to hoping something crops up but don't fancy waiting another 24 years to walk on top of the six foot drifts we had back then

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS parallel is bi-polar I swear. From good to bad to worse all in the succession of 3 runs. ECM has been on the money I'm afraid albeit the less popular model during this spell. 

If something is going to change, its now or never for this winter as time really is beginning to run out. Yes you get snow in spring, but it doesn't last one bit as the strength of the sun and lengthening days almost immediately melt it out. 

 

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but the current 'cold' spell we are in has charts that would normally be producing decent snowfall yet we have got so unlucky with the uppers and certain parameters that has failed it quite a bit. One day we might get a proper blizzard again maybe. By blizzard I mean the realms of Jan 1987, New years day 1963, 1978 etc! 

[March Blizzard]

I knew this forum was snow biased, but I can't get my head around the despondency surrounding what may well amount to beautiful winter weather over the next week or so, with crisp days and cold frosty nights. Sounds great to me, I just hope the cloud isn't too intrusive.

Anyway, that was a mini moan about the moaning.

P.S - February isn't spring, and the sun really isn't all that strong yet.

Edited February 1, 2015 by March Blizzard

[snow mad]

I knew this forum was snow biased, but I can't get my head around the despondency surrounding what may well amount to beautiful winter weather over the next week or so, with crisp days and cold frosty nights. Sounds great to me, I just hope the cloud isn't too intrusive.

Anyway, that was a mini moan about the moaning.

P.S - February isn't spring, and the sun really isn't all that strong yet.

thing is its snow that most people want down south and it's been pants now for ages! Frost is nice but it's hard to sledge on that stuff! Bring back the 80's especially jan 87!!!

[summer blizzard]

Despite the excitement from some regarding the 6z (though pressure was far too high for much excitement away from the south east) the 12z and 18z are back on trend with a notable dry period upcoming. Here in Leeds we could well be looking at over 2 weeks without rain as things stand.

 

[March Blizzard]

thing is its snow that most people want down south and it's been pants now for ages! Frost is nice but it's hard to sledge on that stuff! Bring back the 80's especially jan 87!!!

Fair enough, but I thought more in here may appreciate the whole spectrum of wintry weather, and not just one aspect (snow). I guess I'm lucky in that I saw a very impressive fall of snow on Thursday, leaving over 4 inches in just a few hours. In fact, there's still a fair bit of it remaining on sheltered grass. I can understand the frustration for those down south that haven't seen any yet, but there's still plenty of time. Things can, and do, change at short notice, for better or worse.

I'm just going to enjoy what we've got, while it lasts.

[snow mad]

Fair enough, but I thought more in here may appreciate the whole spectrum of wintry weather, and not just one aspect (snow). I guess I'm lucky in that I saw a very impressive fall of snow on Thursday, leaving over 4 inches in just a few hours. In fact, there's still a fair bit of it remaining on sheltered grass. I can understand the frustration for those down south that haven't seen any yet, but there's still plenty of time. Things can, and do, change at short notice, for better or worse.

I'm just going to enjoy what we've got, while it lasts.

yes enjoy it as it seems we maybe going through a cluster of more average winters currently so who knows when we might get something a little more extreme to allow more of us to join the party!

[West is Best]

It has been a disappointing cold spell for most of us. Even those who saw actual snow falling, as opposed to sleet and rain, have seen little or no lying snow. All-in-all for most of us it turned out to be a faux-cold. It felt cold in the wind but empirically speaking it hasn't delivered.

 

The trouble is, it never looked like a proper cold set up. The northerly source was okay once it set in but poorer uppers in the mix meant temps were mostly just the wrong side of marginal.

 

It's difficult to be realistic on the main model thread but at least people can share their emotions about it on here.

 

We're heading now into high pressure territory, mid-week onwards. This could stick around for a while eating into short February. I think after the sleety slushy muck many of us will take the settled winter weather.

 

It's sad though. I was thinking the other day of when I was at school once and it snowed literally the whole day, and on another occasion awaking to swirling snowdrifts that went over the hedge tops. Have we lost proper snowy winter weather?

Edited February 2, 2015 by West is Best

[I remember Atlantic 252]

used to snow way more in the 90's, miss the good old snows of the 90's, could guarantee decent snow back then, will we ever see a true beast again between Dec and early march? because we always used to see easterlies before say around 2000

[Hocus Pocus]

It has been a disappointing cold spell for most of us. Even those who saw actual snow falling, as opposed to sleet and rain, have seen little or no lying snow. All-in-all for most of us it turned out to be a faux-cold. It felt cold in the wind but empirically speaking it hasn't delivered.

The trouble is, it never looked like a proper cold set up. The northerly source was okay once it set in but poorer uppers in the mix meant temps were mostly just the wrong side of marginal.

It's difficult to be realistic on the main model thread but at least people can share their emotions about it on here.

We're heading now into high pressure territory, mid-week onwards. This could stick around for a while eating into short February. I think after the sleety slushy muck many of us will take the settled winter weather.

It's sad though. I was thinking the other day of when I was at school once and it snowed literally the whole day, and on another occasion awaking to swirling snowdrifts that went over the hedge tops. Have we lost proper snowy winter weather?

I think some have very short memories and ideas above their station, have we forgot 09/10, December 2010, March 2013, also we all have fond memories of cold snowy winters when we were kids but I'm 51 and I remember the gunk between the rare cold snowy spells. Edited February 2, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Bristawl Si]

 

It has been a disappointing cold spell for most of us. Even those who saw actual snow falling, as opposed to sleet and rain, have seen little or no lying snow. All-in-all for most of us it turned out to be a faux-cold. It felt cold in the wind but empirically speaking it hasn't delivered.

 

The trouble is, it never looked like a proper cold set up. The northerly source was okay once it set in but poorer uppers in the mix meant temps were mostly just the wrong side of marginal.

 

It's difficult to be realistic on the main model thread but at least people can share their emotions about it on here.

 

We're heading now into high pressure territory, mid-week onwards. This could stick around for a while eating into short February. I think after the sleety slushy muck many of us will take the settled winter weather.

 

It's sad though. I was thinking the other day of when I was at school once and it snowed literally the whole day, and on another occasion awaking to swirling snowdrifts that went over the hedge tops. Have we lost proper snowy winter weather?

This Winter reminds me of the ones in the early/mid 70s.

Generally speaking a North/South split - colder, snowier in the North; less cold, no snow in the South.

09/10 and late Nov/early Dec 10 were decent here though. Early 00s rubbish.

March 2013 was pants for us - cold but dry.

[cheeky_monkey]

used to snow way more in the 90's, miss the good old snows of the 90's, could guarantee decent snow back then, will we ever see a true beast again between Dec and early march? because we always used to see easterlies before say around 2000

Did it?..1990s apart from 1991 was pretty poor for snow esp the last 5/6 years of the decade..no where near as a good as the 1980s or 70s or 60s for example.