Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Big Dave]

This to me, here, now, looks like the pivot point!

 

To me, this is the point in time where it slips away... it comes ever so, ever so close but out of nowhere, when nobody was looking and from where nobody was looking, it downgrades... coldies had turned a blind eye (by the way, where do the spelling police sit on the word 'coldie' please?), it just seemed to be getting so much more likely, it was overdue, the time was right, the models seemed to agree (did they really?), surely it's inevitable...right?  Distracted and unavoidably giddy with excitement, nobody saw it leave. 

 

Tomorrow will be filled with some confusion & disbelief, "it's just one run", "look at the trend, it's been trending toward cold for days", "get the cold in first", "the cold is coming" etc.

 

People who were yesterday talking about t96, find themselves still talking about t96 tomorrow... 2 days mysteriously vanished. 

 

By Tomorrow 18z, panic will be starting to set in, poor Mods will be working overtime trying to clear the MOD thread, pleading to focus on MOD and keep the rest in here. 

 

It's understandable though right... it emulates a universal grief process:

 

1. Denial - "it's one bad run"

2. Anger - "winters written off"

3. Bargaining - "there might be hope at T324 or whatever it is

4. Depression - "snowstarved, snowdrought"

5. Acceptance - "back to the models"

 

Living right in the SE corner, I do it every time and only have myself to blame.  Off to join Coldies Anonymous. 

Edited January 28, 2015 by Big Dave

[Stuie]

Oh god.......he's looking in the MOD thread again

 

What is he bummed that it is too cold to go out for a while?

[shaky]

Pretty good afternoon runs again!! Cant complain really!! Favour a uk high to set up and then maybe a scandi or greenland high as carinthian mentioned few days ago!! I will take that as it will keep the snow on the ground for longer!!!

[Timmytour]

Spending too much time looking at the models and model thread.

I should go out tonight to watch Spurs but I'm not feeling well. I'd usually describe it as dodgy guts. But now I can only think of it in terms of having my internal PV all over the place with mid-stomach blocking and sliders runnning south over my own personal UK containing plenty of precipitation. Tentative signs of heights heading north

[Timmytour]

And you support Spurs and I support Arsenal..u couldn't make that up

I don't hold that against you

[Timmytour]

Lol and me you good luck tonight maybe our love of snow will make your defenders skid...predicting a Sheffunited Win on penalties

Hope your predictions on football aren't as good as your predictions on the weather

[timboy666]

Defanately spelling and grammer issues on here, makes me loose my rag!!!

You should shut up because some people are dyslexic as long as you can get the gist of what they're saying you should just leave people alone

[Mapantz]

You should shut up because some people are dyslexic as long as you can get the gist of what they're saying you should just leave people alone

Calm down dear! It was only a joke.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Calm down dear! It was only a joke.

 

Ay it was, I forgive you

[knocker]

After a quick glance I see there is now talk of an extended cold spell, maybe even into March. Of course this is as usual devoid of any coherent analysis. Just to say the ext anomalies and NOAA don't seem to support this view. The EPS is not quite so bullish with the Azores ridge.

 

EDIT

'Reload' must be a candidate for the swear filter.

Edited January 28, 2015 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

After a quick glance I see there is now talk of an extended cold spell, maybe even into March. Of course this is as usual devoid of any coherent analysis. Just to say the ext anomalies and NOAA don't seem to support this view. The EPS is not quite so bullish with the Azores ridge.

 

EDIT

'Reload' must be a candidate for the swear filter.

Has the actual "cold" spell started though; i know some on here dont have much regard for the Beeb temps, but 5 or 6c in Bristol on Sunday forecasted- isnt that about normal for end Jan/early Feb here?

[West is Best]

After a quick glance I see there is now talk of an extended cold spell, maybe even into March. Of course this is as usual devoid of any coherent analysis. Just to say the ext anomalies and NOAA don't seem to support this view. The EPS is not quite so bullish with the Azores ridge.

 

EDIT

'Reload' must be a candidate for the swear filter.

Indeed!

 

I'm staying clear of the main model thread as I don't want to be a spoilsport but next week's cold remains precarious with massive ensemble scatter and clear signs even of operationals e.g. ECM veering towards a toppler. As for longer term, hmmm …!

 

To me this is just a 2 or 3 day northerly, or will be when we actually get a northerly. It hasn't even turned properly cold yet. May or possibly will see a few snow showers. Pretty much what you expect from a normal winter.

 

I can't get excited about this setup at all. It lacks any depth or penetration. It's much better than last winter though.

Edited January 28, 2015 by West is Best

[knocker]

Has the actual "cold" spell started though; i know some on here dont have much regard for the Beeb temps, but 5 or 6c in Bristol on Sunday forecasted- isnt that about normal for end Jan/early Feb here?

 

I'm reliable informed that it's quite nippy up the Cairngorms. Roger Brugge's temp forecast for Camborne.

Edited January 28, 2015 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

Indeed!

I'm staying clear of the main model thread as I don't want to be a spoilsport but next week's cold remains precarious with massive ensemble scatter and clear signs even of operationals e.g. ECM veering towards a toppler. As for longer term, hmmm …!

To me this is just a 2 or 3 day northerly, or will be when we actually get a northerly. It hasn't even turned properly cold yet. May or possibly will see a few snow showers. Pretty much what you expect from a normal winter.

I can't get excited about this setup at all. It lacks any depth or penetration. It's much better than last winter though.

Agreed WIB.

Maybe it's me being a weather numpty compared to some more gifted folk on here but i'm seeing v little to excite, in terms of decent cold and snow.

I dont pretend to be able to read teleconnections and the like for medium/longer term, so wont comment any further.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Bristle boy

[Met4Cast]

18z in FI is quite frankly, gross

 

[goosey007]

18z in FI is quite frankly, gross

 

GFS FI.png

Super duper Pub run!!!

[SnowObsessor90]

The models have only really trended one way today unfortunately, looks like WIB could well have called this right, it just seems like we're going through a phase where proper sustained cold spells are hard to come by at the minute, hopefully it doesn't take too long for us to come out of it.

Edited January 28, 2015 by SnowObsessor90

[Big Dave]

This to me, here, now, looks like the pivot point!

 

To me, this is the point in time where it slips away... it comes ever so, ever so close but out of nowhere, when nobody was looking and from where nobody was looking, it downgrades... coldies had turned a blind eye (by the way, where do the spelling police sit on the word 'coldie' please?), it just seemed to be getting so much more likely, it was overdue, the time was right, the models seemed to agree (did they really?), surely it's inevitable...right?  Distracted and unavoidably giddy with excitement, nobody saw it leave. 

 

Tomorrow will be filled with some confusion & disbelief, "it's just one run", "look at the trend, it's been trending toward cold for days", "get the cold in first", "the cold is coming" etc.

 

People who were yesterday talking about t96, find themselves still talking about t96 tomorrow... 2 days mysteriously vanished. 

 

By Tomorrow 18z, panic will be starting to set in, poor Mods will be working overtime trying to clear the MOD thread, pleading to focus on MOD and keep the rest in here. 

 

It's understandable though right... it emulates a universal grief process:

 

1. Denial - "it's one bad run"

2. Anger - "winters written off"

3. Bargaining - "there might be hope at T324 or whatever it is

4. Depression - "snowstarved, snowdrought"

5. Acceptance - "back to the models"

 

Living right in the SE corner, I do it every time and only have myself to blame.  Off to join Coldies Anonymous. 

 

Yep... yesterday was PIVOT DAY

 

Last night Phase 1 began.   Fair bit of denial about.  See what continues today. 

[snowblizzard]

Lack of posts in the MOD thread this morning is rather concerning, is it starting to go 'pear-shaped' already?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Lack of posts in the MOD thread this morning is rather concerning, is it starting to go 'pear-shaped' already?

 

looks like the Atlantic will break through around Feb 5th, infact ECM looks like a wet tuesday for southern parts

[cyclonic happiness]

looks like the Atlantic will break through around Feb 5th, infact ECM looks like a wet tuesday for southern parts

That's fine. We want to try for the record of not having any lying snow for 2 years here. :-D   (I might be joking....)

[GoonerGregg77]

Feeling a little anxious about this cold spell. 

BBC are sooooo vague about weather down in this quadrant of the UK.

They show on their graphics, bands of showers fleeting with the SE through this morning and this evening, but their is no such evidence on the current radar.

 

Showers are dying over the Welsh mountains and if any make it too the Midlands, well they are decaying very fast. Thus not making it to the SE and were in for a day of glorious winter sunshine with a marked wind chill, and staying relatively dry apart from the odd flurry of sleet or snow, even rain for that matter!

 

Talking of Rain, tomorrow we will see it more on a more Northerly wind. Well I'd say still a NW'ly, but slacker.

 

Then the BBC show a distinctly bowed Northerly on Saturday to re-introduce a colder feel once again than that of friday that looks in essence 'Weak'. It's Sunday when a 'Blast' of sorts will be keenly felt across the UK.

 

My feelings are that this is a North Cold spell, with very much isolated a showery activity further south, apart from the SW, where I think that LOW that is circling the Jet will effect Ireland and the SW with some quite 'Noteworthy' snow.

 

So all in all, for me, biasly in the SE, I'm yet again annoyed because it's nearly 2 years and counting since I've seen a flake of snow! I'm getting annoyed! 

Edited January 29, 2015 by GoonerGregg77

[knocker]

I see rinse and repeat is today's buzz term. Problem with that is:

 

 

And surprise, surprise today's gold star goes to

 

 

Edited January 29, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

After a quick glance I see there is now talk of an extended cold spell, maybe even into March. Of course this is as usual devoid of any coherent analysis. Just to say the ext anomalies and NOAA don't seem to support this view. The EPS is not quite so bullish with the Azores ridge.

 

EDIT

'Reload' must be a candidate for the swear filter.

 

hmmm.... my concerns are that this cold spell was supposed to be a 2-3 day affair, ended by wednesday... but run after run has gradually pushed back the end of the cold. we have building pressure to contend with, that could deliver 'early spring' by mid month (unsettled mild temps 8 - 12 c), or a beasterly IF the ridge does build scandinavia bound. 

high pressure over scandinavia in feb = strong cold potential .

i havnt the knowlege to give 'coherent analysis' , but have the experience to realise that high pressure to our notheast COULD prolong the general cold theme for some time, and even produce a 'big freeze' (as in ice days).

so whilst its currently looking just 'rather cold' it could still yet develop into something colder. its not looking very snowy though after monday..

[knocker]

Indeed the cold could also be locked in by HP building from the SW which has shown on some runs this morning.