shaky
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon looks fantastic again!!cut off low going through west off spain and extending the warmth!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Changes are coming but just cos they are coming doesnt mean any meaningful rainfall!!might be cooler but still dry!!am sorry but the odd shower here and there will not cut it!!my lawn is going brown so i need a few days of heavy rainfall!!lol -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One thing that is concerning is there seems to be strong support for maybe not overly wet conditions but quite cold weather after day 10!!lets hope we see a downgrade on this over the next couple of days!!until then enjoy the heat! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aaannd anything unsettled virtually non existent now especially if u go according to ecm!even the embarrassing gfs does a u turn from the wet 06z!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And once again the gfs backs down from any meaningfull rainfall on the 12z!!dry spell continues into far fi land!!!ukmo 12z looks good as well!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What is making the gfs do this!!its getting really hard to even follow this model anymore!!!there use to be a time even if it was an outlier at least the outlier use to come true once in a blue moon!!!i mean now it just flaps around!!ecm is true king its right more than 70 percent of the time!!then ukmo!!!by the way gfs control much better as is the mean!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Aaaand gfs does what gfs does best and brings back a low for 2 or 3 days between 168 and 216 hours!really amazing stuff from this model!!expecting a bit of low pressure influence but not to the gfs extent!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As i said last night 18z went off one as the 00z has bactracked and is absolutely fantastic!and if that was not enough ecm is pretty darn good this morning as well!!better than last nights 12z!!long may this continue? -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ludicrous gfs 18z!!storms for a couple days from 168 hours and then back to heatwave conditions!!highly doubt it will still be there on the 00z!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 18z continues the summer theme!!less of a disrupting low in the atlantic and more of a ridge!!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A humongous outlier regardless of the pressure drop!!! At some point the pressure was gona drop lol!!expecting maybe a better last couple of frames from ecm on 00z!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What bout in terms of pressure!!!!i knew it was gona be an outlier anyway!!so amazing output tonight if heat and sun is what your after barr the last couple of dodgy frames from ecm op!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Honestly the output is brilliant!!that cut off low is yummy!!pulls in even more warmth and extends the current dry and warm spell!!!northerly cancelled out again!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lovely little cut off low there to extend the warmth!!!lets hope that low in eastern europe does not end up westwards towards the uk!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty good run if you ask me!!winds coming in from warm continent and mainly dry?odd storm here and there!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another day another set of very food model runs!!!temps in the mid 20s and sunny all the way!!also that northerly keeps being pushed back on the gfs each and every time!!whats with the gfs having this northerly fetish?ecm has hardly shown any northerly and so far is proving to be correct! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Upgrade to me on the latest 18z!!trough digs much further south!!!heights slightly further west!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic 12z ukmo and gfs so far!!!!? -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better mean and control!!dry and sunny all the way till the end!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Massive outlier by 10mb!!!expect improvements on the 00z maybe!!overall brilliant output tonight if sunny and warm is your thing!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Any updates on latest 12z ukmo and gfs? -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Astonishing 18z!!dry and sunny out to 192 hours so far!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Big upgrade in terms of stronger heights across the uk on gfs!!brilliant 12z output so far!ukmo is a scorcher as well!ecm shall come on board later on as well!!? -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Brilliant 18z so far!!sunny amd warm all of next week for england and wales at the very least!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stunnning ukmo!!and gfs completes the embarrassing backtrack and joins ecm and ukmo on the 12z!!what a beautiful set of 12zs so far!!!ecm to complete the full house later!!