shaky
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic gfs 12z!!how anyone can complain about this 12z run up to 216 hours is beyond me!!its clearly an upgrade on previous runs!!12z ukmo a bit flatter at 120 hours but still a darn good run!!lets be honest ukmo hardly is the best run seems to change a lot between 120 and 144 hours recently!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon continues the trend!!warm dry and sunny till the end of the run!!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic output from the main 3 this morning!!!high pressure warmth and sun all the way!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs mean and control much better than the op!!expect a better 00z i think!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Get the bbqs ready guys!summer is coming? -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What an ecm at t144 hours!!joins the ukmo with a stronger ridge!!looks really warm as well!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic ukmo and now gfs nearly completes the backtrack at 144 hours!nice warm ridge heading straight through the uk at 144 hours!!backed west by quite some distance compared to the 12z yesterday!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Definite improvement on gfs 18z with a stronger ridge to the south east!!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like as usual gfs is embarrassing itself!!what a brilliant ecm this evening!!very warm and sunny all the way!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmmm gfs gone of on one here at t192 hours!!no where near as strong a pressure build as the last few runs!!!hopefully an outlier!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs 06z better and extends the high further north and west at 210 hours!!summer incoming ? -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic fantastic ecm mean this evening!!strong heights across the whole of the uk from start to finish!!looks even better than the op between 168 and 240 hours with the high a bit further north!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yup after the ecm went off on one yesterday with its crazy cold charts it seems as though its being watered down as usual!!good stuff dont need such cold charts at this time of the year as much as i love cold and snow!!gimme a spanish plume now instead! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where is that band of rain gfs kept forecasting for today across a large swathe of wales midlands and east anglia!!its virtually non existent!!thats gfs being incorrect at just 24 hours!!shocking if you ask me!!yeh it might have been a light band of rain but still it was forecasted and gfs got it wrong!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Think we will end up somewhere in the middle in the end or something like the gfs!ecm had a habit of over amplifying things all winter!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think i shall still go with the classic northward and eastward bias please!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmmm things getting interesting again!!a plume gathering pace for next week!!what looked like a really wet period is now being toned down again!!!although it been raining here for the last 2 hours quite heavily!!ground is extremely dry though!!!gfs 06z looks to push that low even further west at 138 hours with stronger ridging over the uk!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think gfs might trend back westwards in future runs!!seems to be a slight outlier with how low the pressure gets at the end of the month!!and most certainly dont want that gem run to become reality!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
18z gfs about to join ecm?!!!looking good at 144 hours and a bit more blocked!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 18z warm and dry to 120 hours!!fresh high ridging in from the atlantic/azores at 120 hours!!in line with ecm!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm looks loads drier!!defo extension of the dryness lol!!!lets see what the 00zs bring!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs goes unsettled at 192 hours but the key is its pushed back again!!lets see what ecm comes up with!! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And is of by magic the gfs and ukmo join the ecm this evening and continue this lovely spell of weather!out to 144 hours so far!!could change back on the next runs but at the moment if dry sunny weather is your thing then its looking pretty good! -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Icon 12z out and is settled till pretty much the end of the run!!!!step 1 towards the extension of this remarkable dry period done!!only ukmo gfs and ecm left -
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs looks like its gone towards ecm at 96 and 120 hours!!swallows that little shortwave near iceland into the main vortex west of greenland!!COULD see an extension of warmth and sun on the 12zs this evening! Edit:just to add it then slides that main are of low pressure way south and west of us and back to square one with high pressure building around it into the uk especially on the control run at 192 hours!!although does not look as warm as it is now the dry weather continues!!