shaky
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Model Output Discussion - heading into April
shaky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Any upgrades on the 12z peeps?! -
But then again the ukmo was further east on yesterdays 00z run but then backed west slightly on the 12z so lets hope its does the same today!!
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Such a beauty to look at!!its a plume of cold air travelling around the high from scandi and a direct hit for us!looking for upgrades on 12z!!
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Brilliant for a washer streamer as well i think!!very cold at 126 hours!whats the 850 temps looking like mate!!looks better than ukmo at the same time thats for sure!
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What does seem interesting is the ecm seems an outlier in terms of pressure days 7 to 9!so we could have that more easterly flow back on the 12zs!!
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Just took a look at ukmo and its pushed everything south and east!!even the ecm has slightly!!as you say for me the only hope is gfs sticks to its guns!!i guess the good thing is it will be much drier!!
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Feb how is it looking between 120 and 168 hours on gfs and ecm!!still looking good for a cold north essterly or has the high toppled too far east as usual?
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Very cold 18z up to 192 hours!!colder than 12z!!surely snow showers from the north sea between 120 and 168 hours!!better late than never lol!!
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Absolute beauty!!!!if the gfs ensembles are anything to go by including the control run then might see further upgrades by the 00zs!!
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Gota give it to gem here!was really going for the blocking last couple of days and now ukmo ecm and gfs have joined the party!could still change though!
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Is that ukmo or ecm?if its ukmo how does ecm look at 144 hours steve?
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Scary thing is ukmo looks remarkably similar at 144 hours!gfs could be playing catch up still in regards to the blocking to the north west!!
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Ukmo 12z!!!not only got cold continental air coming in from.the east but at 144 hours look at that blocking to the northwest with incoming cold air from the north east!!looks better than gfs dare i say!!
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Im waiting for your update saying we have got the full house now!!!shameful from the gfs thats all i can say!!
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Gfs backed down in the end then?didnt really see that coming this time!!maybe a middle ground not a full climb down!
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Wow!!what a chart at 120 hours!!surely ecm backs down tomorrow!!
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18z holding firm at 96 hours!!not backing ecm at all!!
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Ecm diverts as early as 96 hours but is it right?the gfs op is actually a mild outlier in terms of 850 temps for next week!!didnt see that one coming!!!if gfs sticks to its guns then i expect ecm to fall in line by tomorrow!!!
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Yup and you can see that low at 48 hours now slightly further south and starting to crawl towards ecm and ukmo 00z runs!!gota say thats a massive change and i wonder whats causing it?
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Has it gone further north or further south?
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Steve you gota give it to the ukmo in regards to the what it was showing yesterday between 96 and 120 hours!!got it spot on!!gfs and ecm were flatter!!gfs now looks completely different!!
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Cant believe the ukmo trumped ecm at just 96 hours in regards to that mid week low!!ecm and gfs did not really have that low crossing southern counties where as ukmo did!!well done to the ukmo!!!
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Is that a ramp for coldies?
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Friday looking very interesting on the 12z!!snowfall across much of the uk maybe with a trough disrupting over the uk!!
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I did mention it earlier i think ecm and gfs will climb down and go towards the ukmo this evening!!i dont know what it is but ukmo has had this knack of outperforming both those models recently especially earlier on!!
