shaky

Yup and ukmo gone settled again today!!no where near guaranteed yet that its gone be as unsettled as gfs shows!!amazing how this dry weather just keeps goin on and on and could carry on if ecm and ukmo prove to be correct!!

Gfs 18z dry and breezy all the way to 240 hours so far!!!astonishing dry output at the moment!!no sign of any meaningful rainfall as far as i can see!!

Got a bit of accas in leicester aswell!!warm and humid!!

Fantastic 18z gfs!!more in line with ecm mean and stronger high over us!!

Gfs aint letting go and is being stubborn as always!you can see its moving towards the ecm slowly early on but at the standard slow pace!!

Fantastic ecm this evening!warm and sunny pretty much throughout!expect the gfs to come on board i think in the next few runs!!what a spring we are having so far!!!

Ukmo corrects itself towards ecm and gfs in regards to that shortwave!takes it south and west of ireland and then further south!dunno what went wrong with it this morning to be fair!!had one of those silly moments!!

On the topic of outliers!!ukmo looks a big outlier at just 72 hours when you compare it to ecm and gfs!!!takes the little shortwave through wales and into southern england where as the ecm and gfs take it way west near south west ireland and then slides away further south!!

Ecm looks almost certain to be an outlier compared to other models!gfs ensembles are rock solid for the continuation of this dry weather!!not to say ecm is wrong but highly unlikely!!!amazing weather so far!!came back from egypt on the 15th of march and i dont think i have seen single drop of rain since!!!grass is starting to turn brown as well!!

Ecm looked really good up to day 7 on 12z last night!!has it changed today?!!

Safe to say the icon is most certainly not backing the gfs!!amazing northerly and cold air!!

All i am gona say is if there was a time things might change for the better in terms of the cold and that northerly then i think it has to be on the 12zs!!and the icon has to sticks to its guns as well!!if it dont then i think that will be it for the northerly especially considering its only a 120 hours away!!

Whats icon 06z showing?i mentioned it 48 hours ago once you get a west based nao trend its very hard to correct it back east and i had a feeling the gfs and ecm was most probably gona be right which is why i wrote this northerly off a couple of days ago!!its all down to that little area of lower heights that branches off the main vortex to our north east!!it pushes west towards southern greenland and conjoins with the low coming out of the states which then brings the west based nao into play!!if that had not happened then we would be looking looking at an almighty cold spell and northerly for the start of april!!

Fantastic 18z icon!!!nothing other than a direct hit!!!keep me.up to date with the 18z gfs buddy!!hopefully a move towards ukmo and icon at the very least!!

Lets see what icon 18z shows at 120 hours!!

I think ecm will back the gfs!!!

Any news on gfs or still all over the place lol

I think that could be it buddy!!dont see a turn around from here!!!i hope it does bring back the northerly but i doubt it!!the west based nao has been a threat for a couple of days now!!!at least we shall get a ridge coming from the south and prolong this dry period we are having!!

Any news on ecm!!!!has it joined the hideous gfs!!!

Surely that slider would be all snow down to all levels as it hits the -8 850 temps regardless of the time of year!!

Any news on ecm or is that bad lol!!gfs big improvement at 192 hours compared to 18z!!went west based nao crazy last night!!ukmo at 144 hours

Got a feeling ecm will side with ukmo°!!hope im wrong!!

Lets hope ecm follows the gfs in terms of that initial stronger east north east flow!!most certainly dont want the ukmo!

Ukmo is pretty boring from start to finish!!!further east as well!!

Judging from some of the posts here it looks like 12z is an upgrade of sorts!fantastic news!!