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shaky

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Everything posted by shaky

  1. shaky
    Fantastic output this morning!!gfs has cancelled the annoying breakdown from the northwest and now has a stronger high near or over uk day 7-10!!ecm and ukmo look brilliant!!?
  2. shaky
    Its just hilarious!!the places that were meant to see the highest risk of storms and lightning got nothing!!where as wales northwest england got a reasonable light show!!just cant make it up
  3. shaky
    The cold front is still over eastern ireland i think!!storms have erupted over wales ahead of it which was not forecasted at all!!
  4. shaky
    I am pretty certain that band of storms was not forecast for anywhere near Wales or western england!!
  5. shaky
    Wow!!let me tell you something i did not expect a line of storms to develop that far west!!and it seems to be growing!!could be a good show for areas further east now!!though am defo not going to hold my hopes up high!!
  6. shaky
    I think we really need to see the skies being as clear as possible thursday morning!!!comparing the last 4 gfs runs they are all very similar but one thing that has changed is the cape amounts have reduced thanks to what looks like being a band of boring heavy rain now across central and eastern england before pushing into the north sea later on thursday!!
  7. shaky
    Whats with the high cape around west midlands but then no cape around the east midlands and then back to high cape across east anglia?would that be cloud cover causing it?this is going down to the wire!!
  8. shaky
    Looks like things are downgrading come closer to the time as usual!!i dont even think its the cold front moving east too quickly cos ive compared the models to yesterdays runs and they are quite similar!!i think the issue might be that theres slightly higher pressurre at 1020mb compared to earlier runs across england!!
  9. shaky
    Interesting thing i see on these charts are the highest cape is much further west compared to where the precipitation develops!how does that work?highest cape is central southern england and into central east midlands!!
  10. shaky
    Nice one mate keep me up to date once either of em are out!!!!
  11. shaky
    Any more update from latest ukv or netwx 18z run mate?gfs still looking good at the moment!!
  12. shaky
    Holy crap that gives me a direct hit!!i will be happy if at the very least the 12z shows the exact same as the 06z!!no eastward shift please!!
  13. shaky
    Absolutely fantastic output this morning from gfs and ecm!!and also on top of that we see the extension of warmth gather pace for thursday into friday as well as an upgrade for thunderstorms for midlands and the south east!!come to mama summer!!!
  14. shaky
    Hmmm interesting 18z gfs!extends the warmth and sun a bit longer for thursday friday!!and also seems like a batch if thunderstorms crossing over early thursday morning for midlands and east anglia!!!it then looks like the ridge builds in even quicker from the south at 114 hours!!lets see where this takes us!!
  15. shaky
    Yuk at the latest icon 12z at 120 hours!!!cool westerly winds!!lets see if pressure builds in behind it!!
  16. shaky
    Yup an improvement on the 18z!hopefully more improvements on the 00zs!
  17. shaky
    Pretty horrible ukmo at 144 hours!!!only positive is a ridge of high pressure could be about to build from the south at 168 hours!!!gota say gfs has surprised me and made me eat my words!!!well done to the gfs so far as all other models have come in line from this morning!!!sods law that it shows the more unsettled weather coming true where as if it was the other way around then it probably wouldnt lol!!
  18. shaky
    One of either ecm or gfs gona have serious egg on its face by tomorrow morning!!gfs 18z not backing down at all!!!
  19. shaky
    Wow gfs mean and control disagree with the op to such and extent that it goes the other way and brings in cooler east winds instead!!but the dry and sunny theme continues!!no rain at all on the mean and control up to 200 hours so far!
  20. shaky
    Im telling ya now that gfs is making a mess of this ONCE AGAIN!!!cant really handle any form of distruption!!!lets see where ecm takes us!!if it backs the ukmo then game over for gfs!if it backs gfs however
  21. shaky
    Ukmo fantastic and backs this mornings 00z run!!im.gona go with ukmo here and expect gfs to do it slow crawl back!!ecm will be somewhere down the middle i reckon!!
  22. shaky
    The means actually looks like its taking the ukmo route at 144 hours and disrupting the trough in the atlantic and sending it waay south through france and spain therefore extending the warm and dry weather!
  23. shaky
    Its ridiculous!!where are the days where we actually saw a little bit of consistency at the very least from ecm or gfs!!!seems to have disappeared last few years!!!i still go with the ecm over gfs any day!!!seems to be right more often than not!!
  24. shaky
    The op has gone off on a serious outlier here!!typical gfs!!mean and control also look seriously dry for a long time!!expect the gfs to fall in line later!!maybe some upgrades one ecm as well!!
  25. shaky
    Okay maybe not in terms of temperature but cmon in terms of pressure especially earlier on its waaaay stronger!!yesterday we were complaining gfs was too flat
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