Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

As far as the GFS goes I'm struggling to see why the northerly is not restricted to just the weekend

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

 

[Love Snow]

Still got snow on the ground here In Leeds been a great week in terms of snow here and Cold!!

Reading the model thread makes me laugh if it ain't showing cold down south then winter is over for the rest of the uk! Yeah right

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The northerlies look great on the NWP at the moment, but won't they get pushed East as per usual as it moves to T-0 with Italy and Greece getting all the cold/snow?

 

actually that is very likely, I remember chasing a northerly for around 6th Dec 2013, think at one point all models showed it, it was pushed east, first I think by GFS (old GFS of course)

[Bristawl Si]

Still got snow on the ground here In Leeds been a great week in terms of snow here and Cold!!

Reading the model thread makes me laugh if it ain't showing cold down south then winter is over for the rest of the uk! Yeah right

I've known many a Winter in my lifetime that have effectively been a North/South split, so no great surprise to me.

It's been p#ss poor for my neck of the woods, in terms of snow - in fact nowt. Actually not even 'average'.

Yes that bad.

Hoping early Feb delivers though. Just hope, at this stage.

[bobbydog]

Another slider scenario on the ECM. That worked out so well last time

"i find your lack of faith disturbing"....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fantastic cold charts showing now for next Thursday onwards....Feb to be a big freeze like 1991 in London

 

They don't look that good at all for the South, uppers are nothing special, thicknesses not great, upto 5C in south, but time for upgrades

[The Enforcer]

This projected cold spell/snap seems so distant to those of us in SWCSERD, that we are reduced to rotating avatars for entertainment.

[The Enforcer]

This could be a high impact wintry event we are facing in around a weeks time.

Yep, that rain will feel really cold.

[stewfox]

the 06Z is absolute pants for the south, especially from 30th Jan to 2nd Feb, screams rain, I would rather have a bartlett than windy NW wind and 5C rain

 

Supporting chart attached not a pretty sight. Going to wait for the reliable this time not fall in love with FI 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Rubbish 18Z for the south, cool with rain sums it up, 140-168, uppers getting warmer from the north around 150

[knocker]

 

maybe the turkey photo need to change to chicken lol ( only joking u know a cold spell is coming when Mr Murrs is posting!

 

Actually it's an exceedingly bad omen as it will now disappear quicker than a rat up a drainpipe. Although having said that it does have a sporting chance because i don't believe it was in Mr. M's winter forecast.

[knocker]

The GFS this morning has the northerlies next weekend and beginning of the week as very brief interludes and not particularly cold.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

The ECM on the other hand hangs on to the northerly at least out to T240.

Edited January 24, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Just waiting now for the ecm ens,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Noooooooooooooo

 

[mushymanrob]

Actually it's an exceedingly bad omen as it will now disappear quicker than a rat up a drainpipe. Although having said that it does have a sporting chance because i don't believe it was in Mr. M's winter forecast.

 

i dont really know why people make winter forecasts, they invariably have a cold spell in them, and are little more then guesses. ok its all well and good just glibly saying 'i think this' as we all know its nothing more then an unsubstantiated hunch...like the ones i often present! lol, . but to attempt to issue a serious attempt at a winter prediction... well... even the real experts struggle with this so well meaning amateurs are hopecasting at best, glory chasing at worst. or is it just abit of fun?...lol..

[swash]

Disagree Mushy

 

I think it is excellent that people take the time to do LRF's.

 

Anyone with a modicum of sense realises that the weather is never going to play out exactly as predicted, and as the people doing the forecasts give great explanations as to the basis of their predictions, it is very useful for those of us learning about weather forecasting, to understand what the background signals are suggesting. I don't believe for one minute that anybody is glory hunting, and people like Lorenzo have already been back on to explain when things don't work out as they predicted and why.

 

Personally I learn a lot from these, and would hate for people to stop preparing them.

[mushymanrob]

Disagree Mushy

 

I think it is excellent that people take the time to do LRF's.

 

Anyone with a modicum of sense realises that the weather is never going to play out exactly as predicted, and as the people doing the forecasts give great explanations as to the basis of their predictions, it is very useful for those of us learning about weather forecasting, to understand what the background signals are suggesting. I don't believe for one minute that anybody is glory hunting, and people like Lorenzo have already been back on to explain when things don't work out as they predicted and why.

 

Personally I learn a lot from these, and would hate for people to stop preparing them.

 

fair play...

i guess when people do explain why things have gone wrong it helps greater understanding. perhaps the ones that dont are more prone to 'gloryhunting'?.. lets face it, there are some egos at play here which i guess is natural.

 

[Richard Taylor]

I've seen a foot+ of level snow in Aberdeen in March before (2006 I think it was, albeit the start of the month) so no reason to assume winter could be over. That was from a NE'y IIRC. We can't control the weather patterns - we are merely interested bystanders looking at lampposts.

[sundog]

Just too early to tell what will happen RE the northerly, im praying for possible upgrades over the next few days. 

 So far my prayers have been answered

Lets hope the trend continues in the coming days.

[stewfox]

fair play...

i guess when people do explain why things have gone wrong it helps greater understanding. perhaps the ones that dont are more prone to 'gloryhunting'?.. lets face it, there are some egos at play here which i guess is natural.

 

 

Its interesting that some of the more experience forecasters are playing this down a bit SM etc

 

The thing is we are not talking about T240 here but some good changes (for cold) in T124 /T136 time frame.

 

The weekly out look tomorrow in country file will be interesting.

 

Feb 86 delivered for my 21st will Feb 2015 deliver for my 50th 

[EML Network]

I've seen enough in the past few days modelling to lead me to the conclusion that this will get watered down in the coming 3-4 days and by the time we get to Tuesday, Wednesday we'll be looking at another 2-3-4 day cold spell before the Atlantic and that damn Azores high rolls back in. 

 

 

So cold from Thursday through to the end of next weekend and then things warming back up the week afterward.

 

 

I just don't think it was mean't to be this winter, despite everything else going in our favor, we've really missed an opportunity for a really cold winter and I think we'll be waiting a long time now for another opportunity like this one 

Edited January 24, 2015 by EML Network

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I've seen enough in the past few days modelling to lead me to the conclusion that this will get watered down in the coming 3-4 days and by the time we get to Tuesday, Wednesday we'll be looking at another 2-3-4 day cold spell before the Atlantic and that damn Azores high rolls back in. 

 

 

So cold from Thursday through to the end of next weekend and then things warming back up the week afterward.

 

 

I just don't think it was mean't to be this winter, despite everything else going in our favor, we've really missed an opportunity for a really cold winter and I think we'll be waiting a long time now for another opportunity like this one 

 

I do agree, although really there is nothing to get watered down, Wed looking the day with the coldest uppers off  NW'ly, snow for usual high levels, then by friday uppers become less cold, so rain mostly for low levels

 

then GFS toying around with a slider low for 1st Feb, again got to really expect rain for low levels in the south

Edited January 24, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[Daniel*]

I do agree, although really there is nothing to get watered down, Wed looking the day with the coldest uppers off NW'ly, snow for usual high levels, then by friday uppers become less cold, so rain mostly for low levels

then GFS toying around with a slider low for 1st Feb, again got to really expect rain for low levels in the south

You ruled out the last cold spell and you received several cm? sticking for a few days. We could get upgrades but easily downgrades but its wrong to say such things when friday is what 6 days away. Edited January 24, 2015 by Daniel*

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You ruled out the last cold spell and you received several cm? sticking for a few days. We could get upgrades but easily downgrades but its wrong to say such things when friday is what 6 days away.

 

Boxing day, yeah, I wrote off Jan for meaningful cold and snow for low levels south, all I've had in Jan is 2 smatterings of snow, no ice days, and the month has been mostly dominated by the Atlantic

[swfc]

Altho im in the camp which hasnt been happy with the winter so far at my location in sheffield we had 6 days snow cover from boxing day and still have cover from tues wed fall.It can become tedious when the snow is melting and freezing but its better than nothing.Hopefully winter will go out with a bang!!!

Edited January 24, 2015 by swfc

[Fitzwis]

Mr Blobby's back in town for the snowfest