Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I wrote off January for meaningful snow and cold for low levels south around Xmas Eve, was I right to? all I've seen this Jan is 2 dustings on 2 Tuesday evenings 13th and 20th, not sure if anyone else in the south under 150m asl has had more?

 

anyone not seen a flake this Jan?

[knocker]

The MOD Thread Weather House

 

The House operates slightly differently to the normal weather House as the smiling young lady pops out when it's cold and snowy and the miserable old git when it's warm and sunny. It obviously has the added advantage of being able to monitor traffic on the thread.

 

Edited January 22, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

Settled? I disagree there, pressure 1020mb+ for most of the next week albeit we are not in the center.

 

 

seems we have a different idea of what settled is...

in my book its usually when theres an anticyclone sat on top of us, calm air, no precip, several days usually being the same...  the charts for next week are anything but settled, mild wet n windy one day, breezy cooler showery then next... thats not what id have thought settled is!

[Frank Trough]

I wrote off January for meaningful snow and cold for low levels south around Xmas Eve, was I right to? all I've seen this Jan is 2 dustings on 2 Tuesday evenings 13th and 20th, not sure if anyone else in the south under 150m asl has had more?

 

anyone not seen a flake this Jan?

 

There hasn't been a flake in my neck of the woods. This winter is just as snowless as last winter so far. However, i don't really expect snow at home as we are never really favoured and it takes something fairly exceptional to deliver decent, lasting snow cover. That said, i'm pretty sure even more favoured parts of Hampshire and Dorset are also still snowless. 

 

Certainly nothing to get excited about IMBY until at least mid feb as far as i can see. 

[Mapantz]

I was just going to say, talk about cherry pick the mildest chart of the whole lot.

What's wrong with that? It is still model discussion.

[knocker]

Not that any of this will verify but a quite intriguing part of the GFS run is it goes from -10C 850 temps to +7 in four days.

[Fozfoster]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-13.51,56.18,922 Almost an easterly.Well yes for a few. Edited January 22, 2015 by Fozfoster

[Richard2901]

I wrote off January for meaningful snow and cold for low levels south around Xmas Eve, was I right to? all I've seen this Jan is 2 dustings on 2 Tuesday evenings 13th and 20th, not sure if anyone else in the south under 150m asl has had more?

 

anyone not seen a flake this Jan?

 

Anyone that's had anything decent this winter must be very much in the minority. Seems like Sheffield is the only major city to have a good depth of snow (10cm+).

 

Can't wait to see the back of this waste of time cold spell. There's been snow lying all week here but nothing worth having. Pitiful 1-2cm dustings with plenty of grass visible. It's really a shocking state of affairs when this is as good as it gets in 2 years. It even rained yesterday turning the snow to slush which then froze over so pavements are a nightmare.

 

Only three winters in 40 years have not bettered 2cm here: 1982/83, 2006/07 and 2013/14. The fact that 2 of them have been in the past 8 years just says it all.

 

If we don't get anything this February then that would be five write-off Februaries in a row and the last time there was a snowy February after such a write-off December and January was 1991!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

Anyone that's had anything decent this winter must be very much in the minority. Seems like Sheffield is the only major city to have a good depth of snow (10cm+).

 

Can't wait to see the back of this waste of time cold spell. There's been snow lying all week here but nothing worth having. Pitiful 1-2cm dustings with plenty of grass visible. It's really a shocking state of affairs when this is as good as it gets in 2 years. It even rained yesterday turning the snow to slush which then froze over so pavements are a nightmare.

 

Only three winters in 40 years have not bettered 2cm here: 1982/83, 2006/07 and 2013/14. The fact that 2 of them have been in the past 8 years just says it all.

 

If we don't get anything this February then that would be five write-off Februaries in a row and the last time there was a snowy February after such a write-off December and January was 1991!

 

 

Surprised at Aberdeen, no way I would write a winter month off there! one of snowiest places

 

would say also first week of Feb, no cold and snow for low levels in the south

[Milhouse]

Just too early to tell what will happen RE the northerly, im praying for possible upgrades over the next few days.  Havent had a decent northerly now for a few winters and time is starting to tick by on this winter.

 

They tend to deliver the goods for this part of the country, 22nd December 2003 springs to mind. However just a slight change in wind direction makes all the difference between snow showers being driven inland, or just clipping East Anglia.

Edited January 22, 2015 by Milhouse

[goosey007]

Don't get carried away though. The critical part of my post was regarding where we see any block and resultant broadscale flow/temperature regime. I can't stress that enough.

WHAT!!! I've already phoned all my work colleagues and told them to prepare for the next ice age!!

[Banbury]

Have found his updates very reactive to what is already being touted by MO and experts in here

His first winter forecast for us was or has been a mile out

[West is Best]

I can't face posting on the 'proper' model thread. It's all too desperate: clutching at knife-edge northerlies 10 days away when there's a mass of cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard. So I thought I'd moan on here where there's less risk of upsetting anyone or getting a ban.

 

We're looking at coming into February with 4 weeks of official winter left. Those 28 days can go in a zonal flash if there's no pattern change. It's grim right now for cold lovers.

[bluearmy]

I can't face posting on the 'proper' model thread. It's all too desperate: clutching at knife-edge northerlies 10 days away when there's a mass of cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard. So I thought I'd moan on here where there's less risk of upsetting anyone or getting a ban.

 

We're looking at coming into February with 4 weeks of official winter left. Those 28 days can go in a zonal flash if there's no pattern change. It's grim right now for cold lovers.

Desperate? Only two days ago you said the euro trough was likely a figment of the NWP imagination!

anyway, it's good to have posters playing devils advocate. I think you should post on there.

[knocker]

 

I would have loved to have seen the next frame from the ECM as this system dived south East...

 

 

The next few frames of the ens has the AZ HP edging in and a reversal to zonal with LP to NW although temps still below average.

Edited January 23, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

I can't face posting on the 'proper' model thread. It's all too desperate: clutching at knife-edge northerlies 10 days away when there's a mass of cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard. So I thought I'd moan on here where there's less risk of upsetting anyone or getting a ban.

 

We're looking at coming into February with 4 weeks of official winter left. Those 28 days can go in a zonal flash if there's no pattern change. It's grim right now for cold lovers.

 

oh come on richard! thats abit ott isnt it?... theres strong agreement for a huge upper trough over scandinavia/northern europe and theres alot of potential for more snow . whilst a lengthy cold spell looks unlikely, theres still a shorter one on offer.

mind you IF this verifies

 

then your fears might be well founded!

[TEITS]

Stop tampering with the 06Z GFS Mushy.lol.

 

I can understand WIB point of view though. At the moment im not exactly getting excited at the progged NW,ly. I am also very concerned by the 06Z because numerous GEFS members have suggested this.

 

Im probably not very popular right now. However what is the point of promising members of a big freeze only for this to not occur and then be even more unpopular.

[JoeShmoe]

If people are getting worked up over a potential one day northerly i think it shows where we are again this winter ...

[Roadrunner]

I must admit, I had higher hopes for this winter and followed the OPI thread and snow and ice thread with vigour leading up to winter. That's not to admit defeat just yet but I do always hold out hope for another February 1991 scenario.

I remember that period so well and that massive easterly that swept in and created chaos. I remember watching that now famous Ian McCaskil forecast and now have it saved as a favourite in Youtube. I remember walking 3 miles to work in thick snow while a penetrating cold and blizzard made it feel more akin to the north pole.

I would love for my kids to experience snow to that degree but sadly that may not come to pass this winter. Beginning to think that not buying that sledge from Costco wasn't such a bad idea after all...

[knocker]

Remember the Day After Tomorrow Storm? Yeah look at what's in line for Europe... (Clearly joking here with DAT ref) pic.twitter.com/7uoiOsnOXJ

[TonyH]

Stop tampering with the 06Z GFS Mushy.lol.

 

I can understand WIB point of view though. At the moment im not exactly getting excited at the progged NW,ly. I am also very concerned by the 06Z because numerous GEFS members have suggested this.

 

Im probably not very popular right now. However what is the point of promising members of a big freeze only for this to not occur and then be even more unpopular.

Dont worry Dave you would get away with it -they have the memories of Goldfish in  there

[frosty ground]

I can't face posting on the 'proper' model thread. It's all too desperate: clutching at knife-edge northerlies 10 days away when there's a mass of cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard. So I thought I'd moan on here where there's less risk of upsetting anyone or getting a ban.

 

We're looking at coming into February with 4 weeks of official winter left. Those 28 days can go in a zonal flash if there's no pattern change. It's grim right now for cold lovers.

There is nothing more desperate than posting a link saying how mild it will be only for a few frames later to show the opposite...... I suppose you have posted in the right area since that post would have added nothing in the other thread.   

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the 06Z is absolute pants for the south, especially from 30th Jan to 2nd Feb, screams rain, I would rather have a bartlett than windy NW wind and 5C rain

[mushymanrob]

Stop tampering with the 06Z GFS Mushy.lol.

 

I can understand WIB point of view though. At the moment im not exactly getting excited at the progged NW,ly. I am also very concerned by the 06Z because numerous GEFS members have suggested this.

 

Im probably not very popular right now. However what is the point of promising members of a big freeze only for this to not occur and then be even more unpopular.

 

  indeed dave...

 

well if its a big freeze youre after, lets face it, its unlikely, but theres still alot of wintriness about. not popular right now? well if people only 'like' being fed views that support what they desire instead of realistic pov, thats to their detriment. realism always wins out, whats the point in believing the hype?... oh well..

 

, I would rather have a bartlett than windy NW wind and 5C rain

 

i fully agree.... but id sooner have a bartlett anyway from feb onwards!

[Stationary Front]

The northerlies look great on the NWP at the moment, but won't they get pushed East as per usual as it moves to T-0 with Italy and Greece getting all the cold/snow?