Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Crikey Mushy if you carry on like this we'll have to call you Murrshymanrob.

 

 

 

very good!

[lightningsprite]

Well the country file forecast was a bit rubbish..He kept saying 'there's a lot of uncertainty' about practically the whole week!! It's odd..The models have changed a tad but I thought it was pretty clear that there would be cold and probably snow for many....at least for a couple of days!!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Just seen countryfile weather for week ahead even nick miller said it's changing everyday he said to check back even a few times a day so wrist slashing over 144 charts is pointless even the professionals haven't got a clue the saga continues:))))

Edited January 18, 2015 by Skeggy Winter Storm

[Severe Blizzard]

This spell is becoming a bit of a disappointment to me and those in southern half of the UK. Frankly it's the worse type of winter weather for me, a degree or two the wrong side of marginal, so no snow but I still have to take a hit oh the heating costs...

This morning near miss and the latest runs confirm that - rain at 2 degrees and then we see runs that extend the marginal cold a bit longer..

Frankly if I can't have snow, I'm not interested and would rather the whole lot buggered off and saved a few quid on the gas bill.

Ran over. Back to bed and then off to see the hammers.. So not all bad.

Enjoy your Sunday folks

Woke up to the usual wintry landscape of grey wet roads and pavements, bare tree branches. Grey overcast skies. 

Went outside and made rain-balls, built a rain-man and then had a rain-ball fight. Took the sledge to work scraping against the wet concrete and tarmac and dissolved salt and grit particles where a gritter had gone past last night for some odd reason.

Looked in the rain gauge and measured 2.5 mm without having to melt any of the elusive white stuff.

What a funny morning... I thought it was supposed to snow.

 

Still not seen a single flake of snow here in Guildford. More snow fell in MAY 1997 than this dreadful winter from Hell. 

[chicken soup]

So after all the hype and slider excitement, were in for a good old big fat letdown then.

[The Bevmeister]

Can somebody....niegh ANYBODY give East Anglia some hope of snow??!! The westerly precips just keep fading out at the east midlands and my daughter is getting desperate for some sledging for the first time in 3 years!!! I'm even looking forward to 'The Jump' starting on channel 5 so I can at least sit close the tele and pretend.......!!!!!!

[snowrye]

as stated above re the current cold snap,i too am not interested in marginal set-ups,owing to the fact im always the wrong side of it,the only people that benefit are the energy companies,so if it doesnt snow its just a waste,why is it so difficult to get snow down here,all i want is for my summers to be summer,and well you know the rest

[The Bevmeister]

I think we can only ever rely on anything 'decent' when there is an easterly Snow rye. We keep hearing easterly incursions predicted by those much more educated by me on the topic of 'weather' and their knowledge of what 'should' happen as shown by the charts but ultimately it is the weather that keeps letting us down- and the ruddy Azores high I think!!

[stewfox]

So after all the hype and slider excitement, were in for a good old big fat letdown then.

 

I think its going to go down to the wire don't jump yet even if your told to.

Edited January 18, 2015 by stewfox

[Iceaxecrampon]

1293 users online

 

must be forecast snow daarn in the saaarth?

 

meanwhile the other side of winter......

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-30871294

 

Snow beautiful and fun - its something most of us on here search for but we must ALWAYS respect the mountains.

 

Ian

[MR EXTREMES]

If your screaming easterlies and North easterlies beyond this cold spell look away now as every single model has a huge long drawn sw flow no not westerly a pure tm air source from the Azores.

It must be said the models are very keen on this idea and I for one am stuck to see where this is heading.

Outlook last night on TV suggested that so far jan been above average looks like after this spell of cold this week things change very dramatically although dry in the southern half of the uk.

So I sure as hell would like to see some kind of wintry weather falling from the sky.

The chopping and changing is really rather frustrating and Id certainly say we're back to downgrades mid term long term no idea and short term cold snow in places rain and sleet in the south but where and how much still up for debate as the models are little confused as I am.

Snow certainly a feature through central swathe of the uk.

But when u see mild South west flow from nearly every model at around the same timeframe as each other u do have to ask yourself is this for real.

I really do Not know how much of this model chaos I can take.

Edited January 19, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[snow freak]

so this long touted cold spell has turned out to be more of a damp squid in my neck of the woods.  I am now totally disillusioned with this winter and apart from one marginal snow event on boxing day when the snow lasted an hour before turning back to rain I can't see this winter providing anything more than cold rain and sleet for us.  Another winter wasted and hardly good prospects for the winters to come really.  I am definitely going on holiday somewhere next winter that can guarantee cold and snow.  UK is total rubbish in the cold and snow stakes.

[MR EXTREMES]

As another winter dribbles by its hard to say where February may end up but going on with recent trends I do feel that there's nothing what so ever with in the models of any wintry interest apart from short term of course.

I be very happy if us southern folks get anything out of this weeks cold.

The Azores and pv combined really is a nightmare I think the El Niño was also a rather a let down.

Stratospherically it does not seemed to have made much of a difference either although there is still some time for this to influence the over all pattern.

Hopefully the models with start picking up on a better outlook but I'm afraid for any kind of meaningful cold spell northern blocking is needed.

Although right now it does show we can get cold with out these but the models were never keen on hlb as looks to be continued for awhile yet.

This not a winter over post but getting close now.

[Danielvn]

Can somebody....niegh ANYBODY give East Anglia some hope of snow??!! The westerly precips just keep fading out at the east midlands and my daughter is getting desperate for some sledging for the first time in 3 years!!! I'm even looking forward to 'The Jump' starting on channel 5 so I can at least sit close the tele and pretend.......!!!!!!

Because widespread snow as seen in the winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11 is not the norm.

[Hocus Pocus]

You can always tell when a return to milder weather is on the cards by the tone of the arguments in the MOD thread.

[snowblizzard]

Oh well, after initial encouragement & favourable signals, it now looks like it will be at least another 2/3 weeks before we might see any general significant cold/snowy spell for UK

It just keeps being pushed back further & further!

I still maintain, we desperately need air flow from the East or North East off of a very cold continent for this to happen.

The NW source is never quite cold enough (especially for the South) and it's invariably marginal.

I was becoming really optimistic about the outlook, but I'm starting to think it probably won't happen again this winter.

Edited January 19, 2015 by snowblizzard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don't know about 2 or 3 weeks for snow, lets see what happens this week WRT snow.  Agree after very interesting model output its watered down but for me its been a pleasant surprise, the disruption and blocking has brought us cold rather than a milder set up so I'm enjoying this.  So a break for me as I focus towards Feb, volatile cold

 

BFTP

[Shunter]

SE Perspective:  Well this so called "Wintry" ( really more like an Autumnal Cold spell ) appears to be over by Friday Morning. Pretty lame affair in the grand scheme of things.

Although no HLB in evidence a number of other factors  ( recent minor SSW, MJO phase 7/8, Southerly Jet etc )  all seemed to be in our favour, coupled with normal mid winter expectations I would have thought a minor snowfall and a couple of days of frost would have been the norm but once again another OVERRIDING factor has scuppered our chances of even seeing a flake or two..

Just what is this missing piece of the jigsaw that prevents the UK from a "Normal " Winter? ( AGW, Climate Shift ) ? .  I have been monitoring weather charts since the beginning of the Internet age and the only factor I can think of is what appears to be a strengthening of the Northern Jet Stream.

Does anyone know of any historical records in regard to NH Jetstream strength that could be referenced to provide better clarity? 

 

Meantime we ( In the South East ) probably have one more window of opportunity in around the first week in February for an entrenched Wintry period after that solar warming will do its thing and it'll be snow showers or temporary accumulations at best for another year.

[stewfox]

So after all the hype and slider excitement, were in for a good old big fat letdown then.

I too have been drawn in by the hype and that's why posts from folk such as Gibby are so important they comment on what the models show. What may occur sometimes makes us believe the models have failed when they have not. Talk of why the met haven't issued why spread weather warnings is clear now they didn't get drawn in by the hype.

Edited January 19, 2015 by stewfox

[conor123]

Done done done with this rubbish fest winter, at least last winter didn't even bother giving us the hype of exciting charts followed by dissapointment.

Absolute joke that despite all the potential, 3 hours of rain at best tomorrow now and any mid-long term potential vanished for Azores High's and undercuts flattened out into 8c drizzle.

[The Wolf]

What a load of rubbish this is turning into.

All looked so good and now huge downgrades yet again.

[The Weather Dragon]

We've got to remember that significant HLB does not happen very often - we had a run of winters recently from 2009-2013 when signficant HLB did occur and we were rather spoilt - it may be some time before we experience such winters again

Edited January 19, 2015 by Jonathan Evans

[The Wolf]

Might as well fire the bbq up!

[Bradowl]

We've got to remember that significant HLB does not happen very often - we had a run of winters recently from 2009-2013 when signficant HLB did occur and we were rather spoilt - it may be some time before we experience such winters again

 

On average it happens every 4 years according to our local forecaster. 

 

Trouble is we seem to get 2 or 3 together then have to wait 6 to 10 years for next perfect set up.

[JOPRO]

I thought we where supposed to be locked in zonal till the end of February according to some to a couple of weeks ago???, yet we are currently in a cold spell. Can someone please explain to me why when this is the case are people once again making sweeping statements about the next 6 weeks saying we are locked in zonal again??