Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[abovefreezing]

Here's how I decipher that.. A "failed Easterly" is one that the models showed on several runs but never came to fruition? So the models "modelled" it wrong? I don't see how increased solar activity caused it to be modelled incorrectly?

I can't remember yesterday, so 2012 is out of the question. But, did the MO ever forecast one for it not to appear? Because if they didn't, then it was just poor output from public charts that sent most people up the garden path.

Right on!

 

"failed easterly" indeed! The weather doesn't 'fail' - it is what it is.

 

What does fail, however, are mostly people's expectations living up to the reality that we are an island in the Atlantic. Weather from the west will always dominate, and anyone who expects anything else will surely be disappointed.

Over and over again.

[abovefreezing]

Chasing an easterly is like chasing your biggest crush, get your hopes up, they'll soon come crashing down.

...or, when the easterly comes, its often like meeting your hero...

[MP-R]

Right on!

 

"failed easterly" indeed! The weather doesn't 'fail' - it is what it is.

 

What does fail, however, are mostly people's expectations living up to the reality that we are an island in the Atlantic. Weather from the west will always dominate, and anyone who expects anything else will surely be disappointed.

Over and over again.

 

Not quite the point. This country gets weather from all directions, just the west tends to be more common. I suppose if there weren't model runs to watch, there would be much less disappointment. The disappointment of course stems from a series of model runs that show an easterly coming, then something like a shortwave pops up and ruins the fun or the model in question has just been barking up the wrong tree completely. There wouldn't be so much disappointment if they were nigh on impossible to achieve. The fact is, though, easterlies are part of our weather whatever.

 

From an imby point of view, easterlies are predominantly useless. I always think, northerly to get the snow, easterly to keep the cold, attempt at a southwesterly via the southeast to bring a snowy breakdown/battleground.

[bobbydog]

i think i'll just wait and see what the weather does. if it doesn't snow, i won't die.

[Mucka]

i think i'll just wait and see what the weather does. if it doesn't snow, i won't die.

 

How can you be sure? Good luck though! 

[bobbydog]

How can you be sure? Good luck though! 

 

well, i might but not because of snowless angst!

[TSNWK]

the T96 FAX compared to yesterdays T120 (quick - compare before the new day 5 is out) shows how everything has trended in the wrong direction for most on here. from the system leaving the eastern seaboard to the scandi ridge. its all trended east and our 'slider low' is hundreds of miles further north.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

Yep! It's been a tough 24 hours since the high spots of last night.. Time to brush ourselves down, make the most of what we get these next few days.. Weather the breakdown and seek out the next phase of winter...

[Carlrg]

By T138 and the milder uppers move in. I didn't even expect that!

 

gfs-1-138 (1).png

 

Every run and the cold gets downgraded. Poor performance from the models re blocking yet again. Can we ever take them seriously when cold is forecast?

 

Maybe the models are right and it's the weather that's wrong. 

[Snowy L]

We really have had a horrible 2 winters. And if that's not bad enough, the models are absolutely tragic when it comes to predicting a cold spell.

[warrenb]

A flat pattern. We are where we were in December, with the high out the East blocking and eastward movement of lows

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Another mediocre event at best, if not nothing.

I'm done with these teases now. Massive downgrade every time for the last 24 hours. Painful is an understatement.

Get the convective season underway, I'm done with this garden path crud now.

Rant over.

[NickyB]

I feel your pain Snowy L :-(

[stevofunnelcl]

I am remembering the classic words of a weather presenter from winter's past

 

It was all looking great for a beast from the east

It all changed, and the pest from the west won

 

Oh please, not again !!

[Bristawl Si]

We really have had a horrible 2 winters. And if that's not bad enough, the models are absolutely tragic when it comes to predicting a cold spell.

The models are absolutely cr@p - they are basically flawed in loads of situs imo.

Year after year they fail, and backtrack.

About as robust as an ice cube in an oven.

Are they really more reliable than they were 20+ years ago?

[Sweatyman]

Another mediocre event at best, if not nothing.

I'm done with these teases now. Massive downgrade every time for the last 24 hours. Painful is an understatement.

Get the convective season underway, I'm done with this garden path crud now.

Rant over.

same here models are a joke can't get cold n snow right ever

[weirpig]

wow     looking at the comments half drunk  but seriously.  why do i bother   no cold no snowfull  rubbish  jeez    that is all untill the next set of runs.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Another mediocre event at best, if not nothing.

I'm done with these teases now. Massive downgrade every time for the last 24 hours. Painful is an understatement.

Get the convective season underway, I'm done with this garden path crud now.

Rant over.

I'm 100% with you it always seems to happen after charts like "that ecm" and the other day "that gfs" I thought I'd see a wee bit of snow after 24 months roll on warmer weather cold and grey don't cut it rant ova

[Dibdabbers]

Good grief, just when I allowed myself to get a little excited. This has to be the most disappointing pastime ever in the history of everything!!!!!!!

[Long haul to mild]

Having seen the 12z runs and also the GFS 18z, I have to say what a truly awful performance by the models; the now non existent Easterly from yesterday has to be one of the low points.

We have to accept that they can't get it right in setups like this a week away.

Won't get fooled again. Yes this is a moan and it may be fuelled by frustration but it feels better to say it and it's in the right thread!

[snowspotter]

I think we can safely say the OPI is down the pan. Absolute rubbish from the models , the GFS upgrade may as well be binned for all its consistency. I actually think they are worse the they were 5 years ago

[Sweatyman]

wow     looking at the comments half drunk  but seriously.  why do i bother   no cold no snowfull  rubbish  jeez    that is all untill the next set of runs.

00z always crap for upgrades it seems to me!see in the morn...

[SE Blizzards]

We're in the year 2015 and despite millions and millions and millions being spent, the models are still cr*p at predicting anything past Days 4 - 5!

 

Back to counting seagulls and hanging up seaweed i go...

[Biggin]

I have to say I am shocked by the vastness of the turnaround in the output today. Yesterday the low was going to slide right through the UK and introduce an Easterly (of various potency) but today that has all gone and it looks very much like we get no slider at all and we will be in a Westerly flow instead!

It's a staggering backflip and goes to show how nothing at mid range can ever be taken as read.

Of course, the positive is that all could change again and it also shows that any predictions (cold or mild) beyond five days simply cannot be relied upon.

Anyone any Ideas what changed this reversal in fortunes?? What did the models get wrong or predict wrong??

[Bristawl Si]

I think we can safely say the OPI is down the pan. Absolute rubbish from the models , the GFS upgrade may as well be binned for all its consistency. I actually think they are worse the they were 5 years ago

OPI

'Opeless Prediction Indicator

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fax chart 120 Wednesday westerlies, no cold folks, just a bit of high pressure cold, then average by wednesday,