Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Sorry, but the parallel has been about as useful as a chocolate fireguard over these past couple of days too.

How can an easterly of the severity it was showing suddenly become none existent at all!

It's equivalence has been like Chelsea buying Torres for 50 million so far. Utter garbage.

[Bristawl Si]

We're in the year 2015 and despite millions and millions and millions being spent, the models are still cr*p at predicting anything past Days 4 - 5!

 

Back to counting seagulls and hanging up seaweed i go...

I knew this Winter was going to be pants when i noticed the Fieldfares hadnt turned up again (like last Winter, they were a no-show).

[blizzard81]

Not true if it can flip that much why can it no do the inverse? the volatility at such a short timeframe is exceptional thus nothing can be discounted at this stage. Throwing toys saga... yet again.

If I had a pound for every time I heard that, I would be very rich. They very, very rarely switch back again.

[snowrye]

the start of the usual model downgrades then,why am i not surprised

Edited January 16, 2015 by snowrye

[Eugene]

GFS playing around with various scenarios I think this evening - BBC and Met Office certainly not buying it, and I would give it very little credence.. Yes an occluded front will occur and pivot and slide SE.

 

 

Yes some posts are way OTT tonight, my disappointment is due to the longevity of the cold spell, we still have at least a 5 day cold spell to look forward to, if you are looking for cold just go out your front door now.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Eugene

[microclimate]

Well after many years of reading the Mod thread I have now finally come to the conclusion that it's best to stick to the Met 15-30 dayer for a basic idea and sod the rest.  I'm fed up with the constant highs followed by the invariable lows of looking at the runs on a daily basis.  And I certainly won't miss seeing the expression 'going forward' being typed as well as being heard a miilion times a day!!

[Long haul to mild]

Sadly it seems the models are still very good at predicting zonal sh*te but awful if anything cold is possible. They have been laughable and as for the OPI, well nice theory but yet another busted flush it would seem. The polar vortex is king and stuck in the same place every time.

I'm not one to give up normally, and there is still plenty of winter to go, but I am fast losing faith. Long range forecasts seem to always be wrong unless they predict westerlies it appears!

[meathead]

Well after many years of reading the Mod thread I have now finally come to the conclusion that it's best to stick to the Met 15-30 dayer for a basic idea and sod the rest.  I'm fed up with the constant highs followed by the invariable lows of looking at the runs on a daily basis.  And I certainly won't miss seeing the expression 'going forward' being typed as well as being heard a miilion times a day!!

 

Agreed, there is an awful lot of tripe that gets spouted on here these days. 

[Daniel*]

If I had a pound for every time I heard that, I would be very rich. They very, very rarely switch back again.

I will reserve judgement till the morning or view the ensembles most importantly. I'd suggest you all do the same before hoisting the white flag. We still have a 'window', and what happens after is really uncertain. I think tomorrows runs will be make or break for a sustained cold spell, something does not feel right to me, without any science behind this claim. I see waning towards day 7, but before that I see subtle changes, big impacts.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Daniel*

[Sweatyman]

Fax chart 120 Wednesday westerlies, no cold folks, just a bit of high pressure cold, then average by wednesday,

GAME OVER mind it never started

[meathead]

Sadly it seems the models are still very good at predicting zonal sh*te but awful if anything cold is possible. They have been laughable and as for the OPI, well nice theory but yet another busted flush it would seem. The polar vortex is king and stuck in the same place every time.

I'm not one to give up normally, and there is still plenty of winter to go, but I am fast losing faith. Long range forecasts seem to always be wrong unless they predict westerlies it appears!

 

The current forecast is for at least 2 weeks of below average temps and wintry showers. Is that not good enough for you? 

[snowrye]

how can you trust the models predicting 2 weeks of cold when they flip so easily in 24hrs,fed up the constant let downs time and again,but its the price we pay for living on this great island

[TSNWK]

A distinct correction West on tonight's 120hr fax when compared with the raw data of the earlier 12z.

From Gibby on TWO

Maybe, just maybe..... And with that little teeze it is time to kip.. Brush yourselves down folks..New day & new trend ONWARDS!

Oh! Looks like we our back to the drawing board.. Folks.. It's been a long day for us all.

[Snowy L]

The models are absolutely cr@p - they are basically flawed in loads of situs imo.

Year after year they fail, and backtrack.

About as robust as an ice cube in an oven.

Are they really more reliable than they were 20+ years ago?

 

They were more reliable a few years ago. When they predicted cold spells a few years ago they were 50/50 success rates. The last 2 years they have a 0% success rate for cold spells.

[stainesbloke]

how can you trust the models predicting 2 weeks of cold when they flip so easily in 24hrs,fed up the constant let downs time and again,but its the price we pay for living on this great island

Well that's what happens when people get overexcited and over-analyse when there are a couple of sets of runs showing cold. Theoretical model runs showing cold in FI are just that...not a certainty! Saying that, it won't be mild for some time and we have all of Feb to go yet! Plus the last weeks of Jan.

[blizzard81]

My forecast based on the modelling of the last 24hrs - snow to rain event for most next Tues/Weds then back to default pattern for this winter - strong pv to our north west.

[snowfish1]

Good grief, just when I allowed myself to get a little excited. This has to be the most disappointing pastime ever in the history of everything!!!!!!!

No! I won't have that......paint you've selected meticulously applied at home only to dry a completely different colour in hours lol

[throwoff]

So many toys and so many prams.

It's the pub run people

[snowfish1]

OPI

'Opeless Prediction Indicator

You'd get a better reading from tea at the bottom of a cup

[Timmytour]

Things you pick yup from a meltdown.....

Nobody demands to know why a model was showing mild only a day earlier for a few days ahead and then suddenly flipped to show cold....but the other way around and it seems the world and his mother wants an inquiry into why the models are so bad!

It's interesting to see some folks in the Mod thread claiming they were gunned down for suggesting a breakdown was on the cards when a day earlier they were gunning people down themselves for suggesting it was!

anyways....it's only 10 days ago that the GFS started showing tentative signs of a potential cold spell coming up when the mood was as depressed as I've ever seen it in the Mod thread I think! So things can quicky turn and this time it's not ten days of mild mush to go through to get there

[Long haul to mild]

The current forecast is for at least 2 weeks of below average temps and wintry showers. Is that not good enough for you?

But that forecast is based on a return to westerly or north westerly winds. Yesterday it was Easterlies, snow showers, and a great setup for nearly everyone. However I expect that for your location there will be plenty of opportunity for wintry weather, but down here we need something from the East. I haven't seen a single wintry shower yet from a NW wind, so I'm afraid no, it's not enough!

Maybe it will change again, who knows, hopefully we will squeeze a few flakes out of the next few days which will admittedly be very cold.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Long haul to mild

[TonyH]

BBC weather on tv shows city temps only. Occasionally they show temps in the countryside. At the mo they are running temps over the 'snow fields'. Accurate temps? Go on 'wunderground' where many imby forecsdters upload weather data.

Hardly! Although there are some 'accurate' PWS (such as mine) the majority are far from it. 40c in July anyone

Edited January 16, 2015 by TonyH

[Hocus Pocus]

As Eugene pointed out we've still got 5 days of cold and potential wintry Synoptics for this duration, sure it's disappointing if you believe and follow each run as if it was set in stone but for those more accustomed to the variability and forecasted projections in the model output it's no real surprise. How many would have been happy with what's on offer this time last year, lower ones expectations and realise that we're not situated off the southern tip of Greenland and that we live in a maritime climate and not a sub arctic one.

[Barry12]

My forecast based on the modelling of the last 24hrs - snow to rain event for most next Tues/Weds then back to default pattern for this winter - strong pv to our north west.

Most runs show Tuesday as a snow event...

[TonyH]

Sorry, but the parallel has been about as useful as a chocolate fireguard over these past couple of days too.

How can an easterly of the severity it was showing suddenly become none existent at all!

It's equivalence has been like Chelsea buying Torres for 50 million so far. Utter garbage.

Fine margins over a small part of the globe the UK perhaps..