Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

Something that should always be remembered. Forecast snow depths over any time frame above 24hrs are exceptionally unreliable unless they are saying 20cm and above.

[Hocus Pocus]

Something that should always be remembered. Forecast snow depths over any time frame above 24hrs are exceptionally unreliable unless they are saying 20cm and above.

I have to disagree as that amount would be seriously underestimating the actual accumulative amounts.

[mushymanrob]

I still think theres too much premature cork popping, nowts certain. Whilst its highly likely itll get cold, whether it snows, where it snows and when it snows is not clear.

[nick sussex]

not being funny or owt , but i dont get why you should care so much, get so wound up, over what we here in the uk are likely to get. you do live in southwest france dont you? 

Well I just find the UK weather still more interesting than here in France and having lived through so many crap mild UK winters I know how frustrating it is for cold and snow lovers.

 

I may be in France but my heart will always be in the UK, I'm fortunate here as I have the mountains close by so can always jump in the car.

 

I'm incredibly lucky with where I live and hopefully these pics showing summer and winter view of the mountains from my house will illustrate that:

[Milhouse]

I still think theres too much premature cork popping, nowts certain. Whilst its highly likely itll get cold, whether it snows, where it snows and when it snows is not clear.

 

A cold period looks likely i agree. The ECM in FI is bringing back memories of those nagging biting easterlies of March 2013. Hopefully we can get a quieter colder spell but with some decent snow thrown in too to make it notable. Cant be doing with any more strong winds like what we have now.

 

And not too long till a Spring discussion can be opened to discuss the warmer half of the year

[stainesbloke]

I still think theres too much premature cork popping, nowts certain. Whilst its highly likely itll get cold, whether it snows, where it snows and when it snows is not clear.

Indeed, plenty of time for things to go pear shaped! Still, nice to see something other than zonal on offer, seeing some snow would be good.

[Dr. Astro]

Well I just find the UK weather still more interesting than here in France and having lived through so many crap mild UK winters I know how frustrating it is for cold and snow lovers.

 

I may be in France but my heart will always be in the UK, I'm fortunate here as I have the mountains close by so can always jump in the car.

 

I'm incredibly lucky with where I live and hopefully these pics showing summer and winter view of the mountains from my house will illustrate that:

 

That's amazing Nick, didn't realise it was that good of a view where you lived. Perfect.

[nick sussex]

That's amazing Nick, didn't realise it was that good of a view where you lived. Perfect.

Thanks. I really am very lucky and some of the scenery in the Pyrenees is stunning. Theres also a mountain nearby called the Pic Du Midi de Bigorre which has an amazing cable car, the observatory at the top actually helped with the Apollo landing on the moon, you can also pay to stay overnight and they do packages , you can also use the observatory. To be honest for me the mountains really come alive in the winter, they're still pretty in the summer but I'm always excited when the first winter snow arrives.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pic_du_Midi_de_Bigorre

Edited January 14, 2015 by nick sussex

[knocker]

Well I just find the UK weather still more interesting than here in France and having lived through so many crap mild UK winters I know how frustrating it is for cold and snow lovers.

 

I may be in France but my heart will always be in the UK, I'm fortunate here as I have the mountains close by so can always jump in the car.

 

I'm incredibly lucky with where I live and hopefully these pics showing summer and winter view of the mountains from my house will illustrate that:

 

Ah, a champagne snow lover.

[mushymanrob]

Well I just find the UK weather still more interesting than here in France and having lived through so many crap mild UK winters I know how frustrating it is for cold and snow lovers.

 

I may be in France but my heart will always be in the UK, I'm fortunate here as I have the mountains close by so can always jump in the car.

 

I'm incredibly lucky with where I live and hopefully these pics showing summer and winter view of the mountains from my house will illustrate that:

Fair comment nick, i can see the appeal of living there, mind you i wouldnt have a liver left if i was living there lol

[nick sussex]

Fair comment nick, i can see the appeal of living there, mind you i wouldnt have a liver left if i was living there lol

Lol! Well Mushy wines about the only cheap thing in France!

[EML Network]

Well it seems you have missed very important factors pointed out by many . Firstly why look at a chart 10 days away when you have cold and snow from 48 hrs ?

Secondly you have cherry picked 2 charts when in reality they are just the operational version of a very complex computer model consitsted of 22(?) ens , (gfs).

Re the ukmo , the last chart on the computer model is the most volatile , how many times do you see the 144 hr time frame come into fruition ? At the very best it can give you an idea of a pattern maybe , ie high pressure/low pressure dominating , but even then your asking a lot , many many times we see low pressure systems been over egged , ie , if it's over doing the depth of the low , then it's over doing the northerly/easterly progression of it which also means the warm sectors are over done .

And finally If you take the worlds best model (ecm) and take a look ens and mean on this occasion you will see its over doing everything I mention above , so the likelyhood of a prolonged cold spell has increased dramatically this eve , but for the sake of sanity why don't we focus on the next 7 days first , which includes , cold weather , sever cold over snow fields , ice , snow , a major wind event , with blustery ,wintry ,thundery showers including hail , sleet , snow , and thunder , all within a 24hr period !

 

 

I wont be getting cold and snow in the next 48 hours, far from it in fact, wet and windy sums up the next 48 hours here. 

 

I don't understand why I should be getting excited about what someone else 300 miles away is going to experience, to be honest I couldn't give a monkeys what someone high up on a hill in Yorkshire is going to get, good on them if they have some snow but it's not what i'l be experiencing here is it. ?

[ANYWEATHER]

I wont be getting cold and snow in the next 48 hours, far from it in fact, wet and windy sums up the next 48 hours here. 

 

I don't understand why I should be getting excited about what someone else 300 miles away is going to experience, to be honest I couldn't give a monkeys what someone high up on a hill in Yorkshire is going to get, good on them if they have some snow but it's not what i'l be experiencing here is it. ?

Look mate ,go on to moans and groans thread

[Nath]

Although the models looks great for cold and snow, we have been here many times over the last few years only for it to go completely pear shaped.  I cant allow myself to get excited until T-0

[Danielvn]

I wont be getting cold and snow in the next 48 hours, far from it in fact, wet and windy sums up the next 48 hours here. 

 

I don't understand why I should be getting excited about what someone else 300 miles away is going to experience, to be honest I couldn't give a monkeys what someone high up on a hill in Yorkshire is going to get, good on them if they have some snow but it's not what i'l be experiencing here is it. ?

And your complaining about that on a forum will achieve what exactly?

[snowblizzard]

Although the models looks great for cold and snow, we have been here many times over the last few years only for it to go completely pear shaped.  I cant allow myself to get excited until T-0

T+72 with Met Office backing will do for me!

[March Blizzard]

 

Yes....it might.....Just been up the attic arctic....brought the  sledge snow down. 

 

BFTP

 

Fixed

[TSNWK]

No posts for 19 minutes as the ECM rolls out.. Looks like short term gain for long term pain..

[knocker]

I sometimes wonder if some people bother to read Fergies very succinct and informative posts.

[Danielvn]

I sometimes wonder if some people bother to read Fergies very succinct and informative posts.

 

Perhaps some people only read what they want to read

[snowblizzard]

No real downgrades this morning, definitely messy charts for the next few days!

Colder spell coming-up but no severe cold expected, there never really was!

There's still not any severe cold in the right place for Southern half of UK at the moment.

Edited January 15, 2015 by snowblizzard

[knocker]

There is high confidence that there could be substantial snow accumulations next week, particularly on high ground. Excitement is mounting.

 

[Shunter]

No real downgrades this morning, definitely messy charts for the next few days!

Colder spell coming-up but no severe cold expected, there never really was!

There's still not any severe cold in the right place for Southern half of UK at the moment.

Seems to be easier getting Snow in the desert regions than it is in the South of the UK..........the GFS is a real disappointment this morning as it moves the pattern further East and doesn't push the slider trough out of situ meaning the South and SE are left in a col of a damp,Raw & Rain before no doubt the heralding of a rejuvenated PV , record cold in the USA and a 250mph jet battering as we go into February. Checking the 0z run in the SE for the next 7 days on XCWeather there is 0 snow forecasted  !   Really need some retrogression of the trough further west asap

[stainesbloke]

Seems to be easier getting Snow in the desert regions than it is in the South of the UK..........the GFS is a real disappointment this morning as it moves the pattern further East and doesn't push the slider trough out of situ meaning the South and SE are left in a col of a damp,Raw & Rain before no doubt the heralding of a rejuvenated PV , record cold in the USA and a 250mph jet battering as we go into February. Checking the 0z run in the SE for the next 7 days on XCWeather there is 0 snow forecasted  !   Really need some retrogression of the trough further west asap

Yes but tomorrow's GFS could move everything west again. How anyone can predict snow amounts or where it will snow at 5 days out is beyond me. It's likely going to be one of those situations that can't be accurately predicted far in advance...but those situations can bring the best snowfalls! So all to play for and no reason to be downbeat just yet.

[Hocus Pocus]

The model thread is turning into a kindergarten with the " it won't snow IMBY" comments, then you have posters misquoting others on the possible longevity of the upcoming cold spell. Makes you wonder why Ian F posts here sometimes as anything he says gets taken out of context by one or two. The outlook remains much the same as yesterday as in uncertainty on precipitation types and where it will fall, the same goes for the longevity towards the weeks end, it could come crashing down like a house of cards or just be the start of something special. Whatever happens tis only weather and not a life and death situation.