Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

 

whats wrong with that?

 

"drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant, especially across the south"

 

its a prediction based on the data they have access too.... the keyword is 'may'.

The trouble is it's been forecast since 2nd January with the end period getting pushed back every day. Clearly the models don't support anything settled towards the South in the next two weeks at least.This was an extract from 2nd January -

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Jan 2015 to Saturday 31 Jan 2015:

It is most likely to remain unsettled and often windy for much of the rest of January. Periods of dull weather with rain will be interspersed with brief colder, clearer showery spells and frosty nights. Some showers may fall as snow, mainly across northern hills. The drier and more settled weather may become more dominant across the south towards the end of the period, but confidence on this remains low at present.

Updated at: 1421 on Fri 02 Jan 2015

Edited January 14, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[Frosty_wsm]

With the recent model outputs it just goes to show how foolish some people look right now who were writing off the rest of winter just the other week, heck some were writing off the rest of January and now look at what the models are showing.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Smartie

[Danielvn]

With the recent model outputs it just goes to show how foolish some people look right now who were writing off the rest of winter just the other week, heck some were writing off the rest of January and now look at what the models are showing.

 

The great thing is that because all the OTT posters seem to have already written off the winter and are gone and not posting on here

[mushymanrob]

The trouble is it's been forecast since 2nd January with the end period getting pushed back every day. Clearly the models don't support anything settled towards the South in the next two weeks at least.This was an extract from 2nd January -

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Jan 2015 to Saturday 31 Jan 2015:

It is most likely to remain unsettled and often windy for much of the rest of January. Periods of dull weather with rain will be interspersed with brief colder, clearer showery spells and frosty nights. Some showers may fall as snow, mainly across northern hills. The drier and more settled weather may become more dominant across the south towards the end of the period, but confidence on this remains low at present.

Updated at: 1421 on Fri 02 Jan 2015

 

fair comment

 

With the recent model outputs it just goes to show how foolish some people look right now who were writing off the rest of winter just the other week, heck some were writing off the rest of January and now look at what the models are showing.

 

indeed...even i didnt jump on that bandwagon for a change , but i expected more wintry weather and more widespread then the snap some of us got on boxing day. to me, instinctually, this winter hasnt smacked of a snowless mild one. however i still would be surprised if it turns out to be another like 78-9. i expect to coming spell to be around 1 - 2 weeks long, then maybe a benign settled chilly spell or back to the atlantic. milder again in 4 -5 weeks time. but wadda i know?

[mushymanrob]

The great thing is that because all the OTT posters seem to have already written off the winter and are gone and not posting on here

 

really?.... what about the ott posters who are ramping up these wintry chances? ever since the northern blocking in november 'somethings coming' has been the mantra, but deadline after deadline has come and gone.

the point is, ott posters come from both sides of the spectrum.

[Barry12]

I told you there would be a cold spell this month

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82124-model-output-discussion-into-2015/?p=3105676

Edited January 14, 2015 by Barry95

[JoeShmoe]

There's nearly a foot of snow in the scottish highlands!

 

https://twitter.com/winterhighland/status/555294785599463424/photo/1

[Hocus Pocus]

I don't like to ramp usually probably because 9/10 it goes mammary glands up, but the next 7-10 days do paint a very wintry picture and many areas could see lying snow by the end of next week.

[Mapantz]

Not with upper air temps that low I wouldn't have thought. The -5 850hPa is pretty much clear of the isles the whole of that segment of run, and that's always the litmus test especially with the dew points given. The GFS itself doesn't agree with you either: their Snow Risk charts are usually surprisingly accurate in terms of the type of ppn:

 

 

With the setups showing the main aim is to get the precipitation. Mother nature looks like taking care that it drops down in version white.

Means nothing down here near the south coast. I've been under -8°C uppers and had only rain

[be cause]

went to the model thread for info : tonights storm .. What Storm ??? .. nothing but coldies looking for snow .

[Mapantz]

went to the model thread for info : tonights storm .. What Storm ??? .. nothing but coldies looking for snow .

Happens quite a lot. There was snow across many parts of the country last night but they're hunting for snow next week. When that arrives, that will be ignored and they'll look for snow in the middle of February.

Anyway, there's a dedicated thread about the stormy conditions: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storm-14th-15th-january/page-28#entry3117850

[Danielvn]

went to the model thread for info : tonights storm .. What Storm ??? .. nothing but coldies looking for snow .

Probably because we're so used to storms. If we'd had lying snow for weeks then there wouldn't be a hunt for more snow. Same thing....

[Sara_south_yorks]

well if what the models are showing does come off, that will be me happy with this winter, will be enjoying it while it is here instead of looking for the end and the beginning of any more possible events, i will then start to look forward to the spring and summer one very happy bunny :)

[Captain Shortwave]

Probably because we're so used to storms. If we'd had lying snow for weeks then there wouldn't be a hunt for more snow. Same thing....

We all know that is a lie 

In the end there are more people on here who like cold and snow than wind-storms. Even if there was several feet of snow on the ground, there would still be many looking for the next dumping, or the breakdown to zonality. As is always the case.

[summer blizzard]

Means nothing down here near the south coast. I've been under -8°C uppers and had only rain

 

Unlucky. I believe the south got rain with -9C uppers on the 23rd Feb 05. 

 

That being said the 27th December 2010 gave me temperatures and dewpoint of around -1C but it just hammered it down with rain. 

[Mapantz]

Unlucky. I believe the south got rain with -9C uppers on the 23rd Feb 05. 

 

That being said the 27th December 2010 gave me temperatures and dewpoint of around -1C but it just hammered it down with rain.

Yep! I've also had it the other way around too. After a torrential downpour, it started snowing at 4°C air temp. It was snowing so hard, it managed to even cover puddles up!

[knocker]

Quote from the other thread.

 

 

However having said that I truly hope you are right, like most on this forum I love Snow - it brings back the child in all of us

 

Indeed

[mushymanrob]

huh... philip averay has just downplayed much in the way of snow this side of (and including) sunday... that wont go down well lol

[knocker]

Still don't forget Wednesday is the big day. Snowfest!

 

[mushymanrob]

These waiting periods between outputs seem to last very long when theres a chance of some decent wintry weather.

 

Still over two hours to go! I know it might sound overly picky but the one thing missing from the outputs is seeing the -10 850 entering the UK.

 

If an easterly does develop that's really the benchmark one would hope to see, Maybe that will show up in future runs if of course the easterly can verify.

 

 

not being funny or owt , but i dont get why you should care so much, get so wound up, over what we here in the uk are likely to get. you do live in southwest france dont you? 

[mushymanrob]

bloody snowies have busted wetterzentrale... i cant get on!

maybe they should have a seperate site for unbiased chart watchers !

[Summer Sun]

bloody snowies have busted wetterzentrale... i cant get on!

maybe they should have a seperate site for unbiased chart watchers !

 

Seems to be working fine again, I've just got on ok

 

[knocker]

Late January barb still on the cards. And the magic of their singing casts a spell.........................

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

[mushymanrob]

Seems to be working fine again, I've just got on ok

 

I have now but it was slow..

[Frosty.]

LOL yes I'm loving the 12z this evening. All us coldies will be dancing in the snow next week. :-)