Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[TwisterGirl81]

Ok, a good example.

 

When I was young in the 80s and 90s there were some really vicious wind storms about, the kind where you had to hang on to things like fences and had a genuine fear of being blown away or into the road etc.

But the main thing I remember is the noise, I'd open the front door and the telegraph wires would be almost screaming in the wind. This happened ever year at least once or twice.

I've not heard that noise since around the early 90s in this street or any one around here, which suggests that the weather is less violent, less varied and just less damn interesting than it was back then.

 

It's not about hot and cold, it's about variety and extremes, and our weather is the least extreme it's been here for as long as I can remember (38 years old).

 

That is what is frustrating me, not the lack of cold. I'd sell my granny for a spell of normal 'exciting' weather :-P 

 

Hi Cyclonic Happiness, I am 33 and I remember what you are talking about with the telephone wires and the noise they made....But one good reason we don't hear that now is that most telephone wires are underground now

 

Plus I remember the wind rattling the windows too but now most people ahve double glazinf and good insulation in and around their houses that maybe why we don't hear it is as much as back then.

Edited January 7, 2015 by TwisterGirl81

[Danielvn]

Hi Cyclonic Happiness, I am 33 and I remember what you are talking about with the telephone wires and the noise they made....But one good reason we don't hear that now is that most telephone wires are underground now

 

Plus I remember the wind rattling the windows too but now most people ahve double glazinf and good insulation in and around their houses that maybe why we don't hear it is as much as back then.

Definitely. In Australia almost no one has double glazing and we have less insulation, on a stormy night in Perth you can hear the wind a lot more than in a British house which is (for good reason) better insulated in all ways from the outside world.

[TonyH]

Hi Cyclonic Happiness, I am 33 and I remember what you are talking about with the telephone wires and the noise they made....But one good reason we don't hear that now is that most telephone wires are underground now

 

Plus I remember the wind rattling the windows too but now most people ahve double glazinf and good insulation in and around their houses that maybe why we don't hear it is as much as back then.

Yes I suspected technological change rather than meteorological too TwisterGirl!

[TwisterGirl81]

Definitely. In Australia almost no one has double glazing and we have less insulation, on a stormy night in Perth you can hear the wind a lot more than in a British house which is (for good reason) better insulated in all ways from the outside world.

 

What do you do when it gets cold?  I know Perth gets very hot most of the year but a friend of mine went in winter and she said it was like a general winters day here in the southwest england ie chilly although probaly doesn't get as cold and for a shorter period too, I think perth rarely gets frost though from my research.  Proper snow is fairly rare in Exeter, although winter of 2009 - 2010 was an exeception.

 

Yes most houses are better insulated, I remember when I was little always being freezing in the winter, I'm sure that's why I always put the heating on when it goes below 10 degrees celcius.

Edited January 7, 2015 by TwisterGirl81

[Frosty.]

Not much cold for most. Of course as with a PM flow some will be favoured, but realistically most won't. London next 8 days:

 

graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (9).gif

 

Probably work out slightly higher than average temps for the next 8 days for IMBY.

Look at the bigger picture, the north west of the UK looks like having significant snow at times next week and it looks colder than average for many areas..unless the Gfs is completely wrong of course.

[shaky]

Look at the bigger picture, the north west of the UK looks like having significant snow at times next week and it looks colder than average for many areas..unless the Gfs is completely wrong of course.

totally with you frosty! ! Especially if the ukmo is correct western areas could get quite a bit of snowfall!! London hardly ever does well in northwesterly situations anyway so will always be slightly milder and with less of a snow chance! !

[Tim Bland]

Not much cold for most. Of course as with a PM flow some will be favoured, but realistically most won't. London next 8 days:

 

graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (9).gif

 

Probably work out slightly higher than average temps for the next 8 days for IMBY.

 

40% chance of snow though for London on there (all be it a few flakes) still better than what we have had so far!

[weather_it_will]

Look at the bigger picture, the north west of the UK looks like having significant snow at times next week and it looks colder than average for many areas..unless the Gfs is completely wrong of course.

Most of us do not live in the North West, so is of no real interest.

 

GFS12z in the reliable time frame upto 7-days showing temps 4 to 12C Midlands southwards.

Snow is very unlikely.

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by 'ColdIsBest'

[knocker]

Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming

 

 

New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction. These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62971-new-research/page-88#entry3108223

[ronan]

Maybe time to create a "Midlands North" model output discussion thread? Really is getting quite tedious and off putting coming in here to check the model output due to the southern bias and a few posts above have really just proved this!

[stratty]

'Look at the bigger picture, the north west of the UK looks like having significant snow at times next week'

 

............ the bigger picture would be the whole UK?  :smiliz39: 

[cyclonic happiness]

Were you out of the UK from December 2013-Feb 2014? We had shedloads of wind (I live on the North Wales coast) and people living on the coast were constantly subject to flood warnings. At the end of 2012 we had severe flooding in St Asaph. So from my point of view the weather has been quite violent over the last couple of years.

 

A simple explanation for the telephone wires not screaming anymore is that you might have moved somewhere where the telephone wires are more sheltered by trees, buildings or terrain. It could be that trees have grown and sheltered the wires if you live in the same place. It could be that a small change in direction means that the wires are in the shadow of a building. Either way the sound that telephone wires make in one street is not really the most reliable of observations. People's hearing also deteriorates as they get older.

 

All the evidence would appear to point towards weather actually getting more violent in the UK. That railway line at Dawlish has stood there for rather a long time and it got smashed to bits last year. The flooding on the Somerset levels was hardly gentle weather either. Everyone has their favourite sort of weather, I like snow in the winter, crisp dry spings, cool summers with rain and the odd clear day with temps in the low 20's and Autumn's that are cool with a bit of wind. Sadly it's very seldom that I get my sort of weather all year round.

 

If you find the weather here boring then you should move to where I grew up which is Perth in Western Australia. In the summer it's just varying degrees of the same thing and how baked you get depends on whether the trough is off the coast or inland and because it's such a big landmass with no real mountain ranges, the weather is boringly consistent.

 

IMHO we're blood lucky in the UK to have such changeable and interesting weather with the potential for a bit of everything.

So basically you're saying that everywhere else has more violent and interesting weather than the most central town in the country?

North Wales, Somerset, Dawlish are all on the coast, you move 20 miles inland and the wind will go from 90mph to 50mph, then go 100 miles inland, it'll be 30mph

[cyclonic happiness]

Whilst showing admiral restraint in not making any inane sarcastic comments I'm somewhat intrigued by the highlighted above considering that down here in the west county we suffered millions of pounds worth of damage during  last winters storms. This included the uprooting of the railway at Dawlish for the first time since the middle of the 19th century. The fact that you appear to live in a spot that is exempt from the weather that affects others doesn't add validity to generalised comments concerning trends in UK weather..

The West Country is not the Midlands.

[knocker]

Maybe time to create a "Midlands North" model output discussion thread? Really is getting quite tedious and off putting coming in here to check the model output due to the southern bias and a few posts above have really just proved this!

I must admit if I was asked to be specific regarding bias in this thread 'southern' would certainly not be the first word that springs to mind. A NW mars bar will not be on offer for the correct answer.

[ronan]

Most of us do not live in the North West, so is of no real interest.

 

GFS12z in the reliable time frame upto 7-days showing temps 4 to 12C Midlands southwards.

Snow is very unlikely.

 

 

Not getting into a slagging match but this proves my point to a certain extent?

[cyclonic happiness]

Hi Cyclonic Happiness, I am 33 and I remember what you are talking about with the telephone wires and the noise they made....But one good reason we don't hear that now is that most telephone wires are underground now

 

Plus I remember the wind rattling the windows too but now most people ahve double glazinf and good insulation in and around their houses that maybe why we don't hear it is as much as back then.

We have sash windows and telegraph wires too. The resonance would not have changed so much in 30 years that it would prevent the wires howling, the whole road is 130 years old and on top of a hill, so that wouldn't have changed that much.

Nope, the weather just is less violent than it used to be HERE.

[Frosty.]

Most of us do not live in the North West, so is of no real interest.

GFS12z in the reliable time frame upto 7-days showing temps 4 to 12C Midlands southwards.

Snow is very unlikely.

The problem on here is you read comments saying there is no sign of anything cold and no snow etc..then you look at the Gfs charts and see snow and cold weather, it's as if north western areas don't exist, don't matter and it's very misleading because some posters are only interested in their own back yards. I always give the north and west a mention, as well as every other corner of the UK, I wish more would do the same to give an overview of the UK weather instead of localised comments. Edited January 7, 2015 by Frosty.

[cyclonic happiness]

The West Country is not the Midlands.

I said in my comment before that it was in my area of the UK not the whole UK quote "where I live you'd marvel at the lack of weather". 

[PolarWarsaw]

Hi. I am as close to SE Norway as I am to NW Scotland, and Oslo is due heavy snow in 3 of the next 5 days. That is as useful to me and many others as snow on the Highlands or the Pennines. I am pleased for the lucky few but the odd snow flurry from a NW'ly really isn't going to do it, especially with a quick thaw likely. 

 

Anyway the GFS Control is also interesting in FI: gens-0-1-324.png

 

Not for specifics, but further signs of the zonal flow waning to allow wedges of heights mid-high lat.

 

With respect, this is the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread, not the IDO Model Output discussion. Your posts are so overwhelmingly depressing for cold and snow fans because you post your future output with the mindset that the remainder of the Netweather world live within 5 square miles of down town London. 

 

Completely incorrect and totally mis-leading to any newbie that's coming in, with what SHOULD be an open mindset on the ENTIRE United Kingdom's future weather output and model discussion. Just as a reminder, quite a swathe of the country had snow on Boxing evening, that then stayed put until the morning of NYE (almost a week), that spell also included numerous harsh frosts, for the second time this winter. Let's not forget though, the CET has been marginally above average so far this winter, so any mention of cold weather should be abolished immediately! 

 

Come on guys, please - sorry to rant, but this thread is entirely futile and abhorrently useless to anyone not completely weather clued up when people post with such a furious negativity and attitude towards the ENTIRE COUNTRY'S WEATHER because there aren't Siberian temperatures in their back garden! 

 

Back to the models - and one has to say, things look very volatile this evening. Plenty of depressions crossing the country, with some key time periods where the country may suffer gales. I forsee lots of rain and potential flooding over the next 7-10 days, with a large chance of many of the population seeing snow falling (Even the odd flake) mixed with lots of rain, lots of wind and some milder days. It looks predominantly wet and windy from Manchester South - though not exclusively and very windy, very wet and potentially very white north of there - with Scotland the focal point. 

 

Enjoy guys! Stay safe and post with an open mind!

Edited January 7, 2015 by PolarWarsaw

[russell k]

The problem on here is you read comments saying there is no sign of anything cold and no snow etc..then you look at the Gfs charts and see snow and cold weather, it's as if north western areas don't exist, don't matter and it's very misleading because some posters are only interested in their own back yards. I always give the north and west a mention, as well as every other corner of the UK, I wish more would do the same to give an overview of the UK weather instead of localised comments.

Well said Frosty, I enjoy reading this thread, the models are showing some chances of some snow over the next several days, so if it is of little interest... go and discuss it in your regional thread!

Maybe some of us have other concerns

[IDO]

With respect, this is the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread, not the IDO Model Output discussion. Your posts are so overwhelmingly depressing for cold and snow fans because you post your future output with the mindset that the remainder of the Netweather world live within 5 square miles of down town London. 

 

Completely incorrect and totally mis-leading to any newbie that's coming in, with what SHOULD be an open mindset on the ENTIRE United Kingdom's future weather output and model discussion. 

 

Thats no problem but where cold is concerned it is very much IMBY and that is why we have our location on our posts?

 

There are plenty of posters putting up their take on the snow in the N/NW and posters in the south do the same for their region. There is so much variation in the UK weather there is room for regional discussions on that variation. I always post that it is from a southern perspective so I don't see what the problem is. Now if there was a potential stalling cold front over the North dumping feet of snow I certainly would be interested in that. However a PM shot is just standard fare and expected in January and Frosty and others are doing a great job in highlighting this.

 

GEM at D10: 

 

Nothing happening there...

[Mucka]

    

 

 

Is it safe?

 

Of course we all have a bias for the weather in our own backyards and frustration and tension peaks when part of the country has snow possibilities while another doesn't but we should never AND I MEAN NEVER be dismissive of other peoples snow! 

 

 

Personally I don't mind that any snow won't stick around, that is already expected, I will be more than happy to just see it falling until we get some kind of pattern change. 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Mucka

[Sweatyman]

Maybe time to create a "Midlands North" model output discussion thread? Really is getting quite tedious and off putting coming in here to check the model output due to the southern bias and a few posts above have really just proved this!

wish people would stop posting midlands north midlands south cos when you live in the midlands you dunno what to think? ! :-)

[A.J]

wish people would stop posting midlands north midlands south cos when you live in the midlands you dunno what to think? ! :-)

you should try living very close to the M4 corridor.....it's amazing the differences.....the westward bound carriageway suffers from blow torch south westerlies, driving rain with +10c dew points, whilst 10 ft further north, the east bound carriageway gets a siberian blast with white-out blizzard conditions with dew points of -10c......It makes it a devil to know what to wear when I'm half cut on a friday night walking along the central reservation!  :smiliz39:

[Barry12]

Great post by PolarWarsaw, it is unfortunate that London looks unlikely to get snow, but it is a fact it's one of the mildest places in the UK. If I lived in London I would certainly not expect to see prolonged cold and snowy spells, as there very rare. If we do get snow it will be the second snowfall of the winter for many in the North.