Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[snowangel32]

Seems like pulling teeth this winter even with all the early promising background signals. We just seem stuck in a rut we need that azores high to do one. If we can get lucky just once there is plenty of cold bottled up. But every time something promising is shown in the mods including the storms they just get downgraded in the reliable time frame starting to give up hope.

[weather_it_will]

Likewise I cant understand how people can get excited about snow and cold..

Because it's a rare event for most of England. Almost like hot sunny weather. 

 

We get wind and rain all year, so it's of no interest to me, unless it's a hurricane that will blow my house down!

[stainesbloke]

I'm sorry, But i have never been one who expects too much during Winter, and my expectations are always pretty low as i know just how difficult it is to get snowy weather here.

 

BUT, even by UK standards Winter 2011/12, 2013/14, and this Winter so far have been really quite poor. Even in the Winters of the 'bad old days' lowland Britain used to see at least 'some' snowfall. At present some places in the UK are on a massive snow drought, and to be honest this doesn't look like changing any time soon.

Not sure I agree with this. 2011/12 was not too bad with 2 decent snow events here near London in Jan. Last year was horrid but it was an extreme, unlikely to be repeated for many years. This winter has been nothing like last year. I haven't seen snow yet, true, but I've had most other wintry types of weather so far.

2 years (well, less than that as we're only a third of the way through this winter) without snow is hardly a 'massive snow drought'. Quite normal to be honest. I remember the great winters of the late 70s and 80s and the poor ones to follow. I didn't see snow in my location every year, that's for sure. And in the 'bad old days' we at least had some fantastic summers, which from my point of view beats snowy winters hands down.

As others have said, some folks need to appraise their expectations somewhat and be a bit more realistic about where we actually live. It WILL snow again here, be it in 3 weeks or 3 years time. It won't be predictable in the long term so you may as well relax and try to enjoy whatever the weather throws at us. Or pop onto a cheap flight somewhere cold. Like New York, where I'm currently staying for work. It's -7 at 13.24 and it's been snowing for a few hours. Nice lol.....

[SE Blizzards]

Not sure I agree with this. 2011/12 was not too bad with 2 decent snow events here near London in Jan. Last year was horrid but it was an extreme, unlikely to be repeated for many years. This winter has been nothing like last year. I haven't seen snow yet, true, but I've had most other wintry types of weather so far.

2 years (well, less than that as we're only a third of the way through this winter) without snow is hardly a 'massive snow drought'. Quite normal to be honest. I remember the great winters of the late 70s and 80s and the poor ones to follow. I didn't see snow in my location every year, that's for sure. And in the 'bad old days' we at least had some fantastic summers, which from my point of view beats snowy winters hands down.

As others have said, some folks need to appraise their expectations somewhat and be a bit more realistic about where we actually live. It WILL snow again here, be it in 3 weeks or 3 years time. It won't be predictable in the long term so you may as well relax and try to enjoy whatever the weather throws at us. Or pop onto a cheap flight somewhere cold. Like New York, where I'm currently staying for work. It's -7 at 13.24 and it's been snowing for a few hours. Nice lol.....

 

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree because for the majority of folk 2011/12 was a poor year with regards to snowfall.

 

To be honest you can keep your hot summers because i for one cannot tolerate heat as i'm allergic to it! 

 

And as i said before, 'my' expectations are usually quite low in Winter. But even here in 'balmy' Essex i would expect to see 'some' of the white stuff at least ONCE a year! I do agree however that 'some' people expect too much at times throughout the Winter months.

 

Enjoy your stay in cold/snowy New York, and if you get time send some of it over here! 

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[stainesbloke]

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree because for the majority of folk 2011/12 was a poor year with regards to snowfall.

To be honest you can keep your hot summers because i for one cannot tolerate heat as i'm allergic to it!

And as i said in one of my earlier posts, 'my' expectations are usually quite low in Winter. But even here in 'balmy' Essex i would expect to see 'some' of the white stuff at least ONCE a year! I do agree however that 'some' people expect too much at times throughout the Winter months.

Enjoy your stay in cold/snowy New York, and if you get time send some of it over here!

Have to fly home later today so won't have time to enjoy the snow sadly, but it's nice to see nonetheless.

Well as we are only a third way through this winter, Essex has every chance of seeing some snow! I remember many winters past when Essex and Kent got clobbered lol and Middlesex got a cm or nothing.....you're in a good position if we get a nice Beasterly! Might be a mega cold Feb, who knows. I'd understand disappointment if we were seeing charts like the ones being churned out in mid Feb but plenty of time for things to change. And they usually change quite suddenly where snow is concerned. So keep your chin up :-) The forum could be a very different place in a months time.

Edited January 6, 2015 by stainesbloke

[phil nw.]

There have been many past Winters in my lifetime which offered little in the way of deep cold and snow that's for sure.

Just from memory I recall a run of poor Winters in the early 70,s and many between 88 and 2000.

I appreciate many younger members would have no experience of many of those and maybe more recent Winters have raised expectations.

I know it,s no comfort to cold seekers but the pattern we see now is our more typical Winter setup.

[SE Blizzards]

I appreciate many younger members would have no experience of many of those and maybe more recent Winters have raised expectations.

 

 

Couldn't agree more Phil. I think December 2010 (a 1 in 100 year event) raised expectations to a whole new level, and because we've not seen anything like it since it has left many younger folk scratching their heads wondering why we are not blanketed in snow each Winter. 

 

Like you and many others have said, it is rather normal to sometimes have a snow free winter (or a Winter with very little snow), but that does not stop people from getting 'a little' frustrated at times, and to a certain extent i do share some of that frustration. I guess people are just very passionate towards snow, and get a little down when Winter passes by without any!?

 

Anyway, there's still plenty of time for things to change, so let's hope things start improving soon.

[Hotspur62]

Makes you laugh sometimes.I have had a look at Accuweather Forum for USA/Canada in last couple days and there are some having a real moan about lack of snow compared to last year. Some are worried about PV moving across to Siberia from late Jan onwards and that NW Europe could be in for a real cold spell and that their winter could be over lol!!Hope they are right on second point but they should come to the UK if they want a snow drought . Perspective LOL

[Richard2901]

The idea that there is not currently an unprecedented snow drought in this country and that people have unrealistic expectations is the only thing that is a bigger joke than this winter.

 

All the lying snow there's been here (where the long term average is almost 20 days lying per annum) in the past 21 months has been a transitory dusting of less than 1cm and that was nearly 14 months ago. The notion that there were similar snowless spells in other eras not noted for snowy winters such as the 1920s, 30s, 70s and 90s is laughable 

 

So far on a par with last winter for unrelenting tedium and lack of extremes. The most relentlessly zonal since 1988/89. Consequently it has been ridiculously dry and absolutely pathetic for frost and snow. Actually less snowy than last winter, so far, with just 4 days of falling snow/sleet and nothing lying at all. Only two proper winter frosts with the rest being shallow and transitory - the type associated with autumn and spring.

 

While there has been no real cold it's only reached 10C three times with no foehn effects or anything noteworthy. Monotonous beyond belief just like the past 13 months.

 

So that the Festive Holiday wasn't a complete write-off like the past 3 years I took a trip up to Braemar last week to enjoy proper winter scenes. Even there it was poor by usual standards with nothing more than a couple of cm on the ground but still the only lying snow I saw at ground level during 2014 

[SE Blizzards]

Makes you laugh sometimes.I have had a look at Accuweather Forum for USA/Canada in last couple days and there are some having a real moan about lack of snow compared to last year. Some are worried about PV moving across to Siberia from late Jan onwards and that NW Europe could be in for a real cold spell and that their winter could be over lol!!Hope they are right on second point but they should come to the UK if they want a snow drought . Perspective LOL

 

I have to say, even though i despise that highlighted phrase, it does have a certain ring about it!!

 

Let's hope i've not started a new craze here and the 'mildies' end up throwing that phrase at 'coldies' each time a FI cold spell/snap doesn't materialise   ...I'm sure 'they're' not that cruel!

 

Do you have a link for the Accuweather forums?

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[EML Network]

114 pages of Winter moans tells it's own story...especially given we're not even half way through !!

 

The OPI suggested we'd see a decent attempt at cold and snow by now and it's pretty much failed in it's prediction up until now, likewise the SAI or whatever it's called, was suggestive of HLB over Scandinavia, this too has failed to materialize, so everybody switched over to looking at events over the ple in the hunt for a SSW... then we sort of got one, but the ''wrong type'' ? or something and then there was a failed Greenland warming..so folks have given up on the SSW  and everyone's talking about MJO ??

 

 

Surely IF the MJO goes into phase 7 or 8 we'll get a cold spell....

 

Won't we ???

 

I'd love to see what people say when we go into phases 7 and 8 and STILL don't get a cold spell. 

 

The QBO is supposed to aid blocking too ...so lets say the MJO does go into the phases we want to see it go into and we STILL don't get a cold spell. ??

 

IF THAT HAPPENED !!!....it would mean every single background signal was suggestive of a cold spell and we didn't get one, and then the research into exactly why would begin and after years of study we'd still be none the wiser. 

 

I think next Winter on here is going to be very interesting, how many of us are going to be taking the above background signals with a giant pinch of salt I wonder..I think I might.  

[Danielvn]

The idea that there is not currently an unprecedented snow drought in this country and that people have unrealistic expectations is the only thing that is a bigger joke than this winter.

 

All the lying snow there's been here (where the long term average is almost 20 days lying per annum) in the past 21 months has been a transitory dusting of less than 1cm and that was nearly 14 months ago. The notion that there were similar snowless spells in other eras not noted for snowy winters such as the 1920s, 30s, 70s and 90s is laughable 

 

So far on a par with last winter for unrelenting tedium and lack of extremes. The most relentlessly zonal since 1988/89. Consequently it has been ridiculously dry and absolutely pathetic for frost and snow. Actually less snowy than last winter, so far, with just 4 days of falling snow/sleet and nothing lying at all. Only two proper winter frosts with the rest being shallow and transitory - the type associated with autumn and spring.

 

While there has been no real cold it's only reached 10C three times with no foehn effects or anything noteworthy. Monotonous beyond belief just like the past 13 months.

 

So that the Festive Holiday wasn't a complete write-off like the past 3 years I took a trip up to Braemar last week to enjoy proper winter scenes. Even there it was poor by usual standards with nothing more than a couple of cm on the ground but still the only lying snow I saw at ground level during 2014 

It would be nice if you'd try and respect others than make out that their opinions are a joke. Thanks

[Hotspur62]

That is the pattern this Winter, 2 weeks of cold, 4 weeks of torch and repeat. Also the PV will re-organize which will once again trap the coldest air back at the pole in the 10-14 day period. This could release again in February, or if it doesn't it could add for a cold air bank during severe weather season allowing for more potent/frequent storm/storm systems.

Looks like Scandinavia/Russia and perhaps the UK/Northern Europe will be the big winners this Winter, US will continue to be short changed, especially the eastern half of the lower 48.    

To SE Blizzards-I am not good on computers but after about 1.5 hours I found the quote from one of the posters from yesterday and just copied it for you just to give you a flavour of the discussions that took place.Today I believe a large part of NE USA has had anything from 1-6 inchs of snow and will have a good 4-5 very cold days with Lake Effect snow cranking up in next few days.Feel real sorry for them lol!! 

[SE Blizzards]

That is the pattern this Winter, 2 weeks of cold, 4 weeks of torch and repeat. Also the PV will re-organize which will once again trap the coldest air back at the pole in the 10-14 day period. This could release again in February, or if it doesn't it could add for a cold air bank during severe weather season allowing for more potent/frequent storm/storm systems.

Looks like Scandinavia/Russia and perhaps the UK/Northern Europe will be the big winners this Winter, US will continue to be short changed, especially the eastern half of the lower 48.    

To SE Blizzards-I am not good on computers but after about 1.5 hours I found the quote from one of the posters from yesterday and just copied it for you just to give you a flavour of the discussions that took place.Today I believe a large part of NE USA has had anything from 1-6 inchs of snow and will have a good 4-5 very cold days with Lake Effect snow cranking up in next few days.Feel real sorry for them lol!! 

 

Ta very much for that Hotspur 

 

Let's hope then that the PV does shift over to Siberia for the second half of Winter.

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[cyclonic happiness]

Funny, I was under the impression that there were far more facets to meteorology than an obsession with what's happening in our own backyard. I'm also amazed that we don't get defined fronts anymore. Has anyone written a paper on it?

Live where I live and you'd marvel at the lack of weather. 

[Hotspur62]

TBH if February does deliver the goods for snow and cold people will soon forget the average Dec and January. Love this place when snow starts falling and we have a cold spell.I wasn't on this forum when Dec 2010 occurred and would love Feb 2015 to be like that. Had a look at Mod thread and a very balanced post by Tamara. Things do look a bit more promising for maybe late this month and early Feb but there were signs a bit like this for late Dec/early Jan and it went pear shaped. Lets all pray for things to come together for the whole of UK this time

[SE Blizzards]

TBH if February does deliver the goods for snow and cold people will soon forget the average Dec and January. Love this place when snow starts falling and we have a cold spell.I wasn't on this forum when Dec 2010 occurred and would love Feb 2015 to be like that. Had a look at Mod thread and a very balanced post by Tamara. Things do look a bit more promising for maybe late this month and early Feb but there were signs a bit like this for late Dec/early Jan and it went pear shaped. Lets all pray for things to come together for the whole of UK this time

 

Totally agree.

 

I wasn't around in December 2010 either    Bet this place was going crazy!!

This forum is a fantastic place to be when a cold spell is imminent, - the excitement/buzz etc etc, you just can't beat it in my opinion!

 

 

And Yes, Tamara's posts are always great to read. She's without doubt one of NetWeathers finest!

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Fred Sykes]

Bill farkin reckons we are in for a mild winter

[cyclonic happiness]

Indeed, the rain for the wetter than average year we just had (including Bedworth) must have come from some kind of atmospheric processes..

Nothing of note.

 

When I first got really into weather in the late 80s/early 90s, there was just more action here. The weather has been getting more and more dull as the years go on here.

 

I used to go to the library ever few days and cart 8-10 books back about meteorology and was fascinated about the workings of fronts and snowflakes and low pressure systems etc and everything seemed to fit into the perimeters of what was written. It was almost like the weather was made just for my amusement.

 

wind it on 27 years and the weather doesn't do what it used to here.

 

Yes I'm aware that things change, (without the need of sarcastic inane comments, which I'm sure will go un-moderated as always by certain 'privileged' folk, ofc this one will magically disappear, lest not to rock the inner circle's boat etc), but there is less weather than there was, no doubt about it!

 

Look at the falling snow and lying snow stats....less, look at the thunderstorm data, less, look at the heatwave data for the last 10 years, surely less.  Even the air itself is different looking, no clear blue skies, only a milky blue at best.

 

when was the last time this part of the Midlands got a trough from a northerly, followed by the clear Arctic air which lead to crystal clear visions for dozens of miles?

[cyclonic happiness]

There have been many past Winters in my lifetime which offered little in the way of deep cold and snow that's for sure.

Just from memory I recall a run of poor Winters in the early 70,s and many between 88 and 2000.

I appreciate many younger members would have no experience of many of those and maybe more recent Winters have raised expectations.

I know it,s no comfort to cold seekers but the pattern we see now is our more typical Winter setup.

Ok, a good example.

 

When I was young in the 80s and 90s there were some really vicious wind storms about, the kind where you had to hang on to things like fences and had a genuine fear of being blown away or into the road etc.

But the main thing I remember is the noise, I'd open the front door and the telegraph wires would be almost screaming in the wind. This happened ever year at least once or twice.

I've not heard that noise since around the early 90s in this street or any one around here, which suggests that the weather is less violent, less varied and just less damn interesting than it was back then.

 

It's not about hot and cold, it's about variety and extremes, and our weather is the least extreme it's been here for as long as I can remember (38 years old).

 

That is what is frustrating me, not the lack of cold. I'd sell my granny for a spell of normal 'exciting' weather :-P 

[Danielvn]

Ok, a good example.

 

When I was young in the 80s and 90s there were some really vicious wind storms about, the kind where you had to hang on to things like fences and had a genuine fear of being blown away or into the road etc.

But the main thing I remember is the noise, I'd open the front door and the telegraph wires would be almost screaming in the wind. This happened ever year at least once or twice.

I've not heard that noise since around the early 90s in this street or any one around here, which suggests that the weather is less violent, less varied and just less damn interesting than it was back then.

 

It's not about hot and cold, it's about variety and extremes, and our weather is the least extreme it's been here for as long as I can remember (38 years old).

 

That is what is frustrating me, not the lack of cold. I'd sell my granny for a spell of normal 'exciting' weather :-P 

Were you out of the UK from December 2013-Feb 2014? We had shedloads of wind (I live on the North Wales coast) and people living on the coast were constantly subject to flood warnings. At the end of 2012 we had severe flooding in St Asaph. So from my point of view the weather has been quite violent over the last couple of years.

 

A simple explanation for the telephone wires not screaming anymore is that you might have moved somewhere where the telephone wires are more sheltered by trees, buildings or terrain. It could be that trees have grown and sheltered the wires if you live in the same place. It could be that a small change in direction means that the wires are in the shadow of a building. Either way the sound that telephone wires make in one street is not really the most reliable of observations. People's hearing also deteriorates as they get older.

 

All the evidence would appear to point towards weather actually getting more violent in the UK. That railway line at Dawlish has stood there for rather a long time and it got smashed to bits last year. The flooding on the Somerset levels was hardly gentle weather either. Everyone has their favourite sort of weather, I like snow in the winter, crisp dry spings, cool summers with rain and the odd clear day with temps in the low 20's and Autumn's that are cool with a bit of wind. Sadly it's very seldom that I get my sort of weather all year round.

 

If you find the weather here boring then you should move to where I grew up which is Perth in Western Australia. In the summer it's just varying degrees of the same thing and how baked you get depends on whether the trough is off the coast or inland and because it's such a big landmass with no real mountain ranges, the weather is boringly consistent.

 

IMHO we're blood lucky in the UK to have such changeable and interesting weather with the potential for a bit of everything.

[TonyH]

Excellent points that reflect my beliefs around perceptions of our weather Daniel.  Nowhere in the UK escaped the very active lows and frontal systems throughout last Winter surely?

Of course overall the weather of the Midlands and indeed much of the UK can be rather benign (I guess boring for many but always facinating to me) but I would argue this has always been the case and is not just a product of recent decades. Its the usual case (exacerbated in our must have now internet age) of peoples expectations being unfeasably raised too high by all the hype brought about by FI GFS charts

Edited January 7, 2015 by TonyH

[Danielvn]

Thats the point I was trying to make Daniel - nowhere in the UK escaped the very active lows and frontal systems throughout last Winter surely?

Of course overall the weather of the Midlands and indeed much of the UK is rather benign (boring for many) but I would argue this has always been the case and is not just a product of recent decades. Its the usual case (excacerbated in our must have now internet age) of peoples expectations being unfeasably raised too high by all the hype brought about by FI GFS charts

Don't forget the Express and Madden!

 

I think the problem is that we've had a couple of recent "good" winters 2009/10 and 2010/11 right after each other which massively raised peoples hopes and made unusually cold/snowy winters seem almost normal.

 

I love snow and get excited by the possibility of snow, but I do a bit of a facepalm everytime I see someone post an eye candy chart that's way off in FI and will be gone in a run or two. Why raise your hopes based on a chart that's way off in the future?

[knocker]

Ok, a good example.

 

When I was young in the 80s and 90s there were some really vicious wind storms about, the kind where you had to hang on to things like fences and had a genuine fear of being blown away or into the road etc.

But the main thing I remember is the noise, I'd open the front door and the telegraph wires would be almost screaming in the wind. This happened ever year at least once or twice.

I've not heard that noise since around the early 90s in this street or any one around here, which suggests that the weather is less violent, less varied and just less damn interesting than it was back then.

 

It's not about hot and cold, it's about variety and extremes, and our weather is the least extreme it's been here for as long as I can remember (38 years old).

 

That is what is frustrating me, not the lack of cold. I'd sell my granny for a spell of normal 'exciting' weather :-P 

 

Whilst showing admiral restraint in not making any inane sarcastic comments I'm somewhat intrigued by the highlighted above considering that down here in the west county we suffered millions of pounds worth of damage during  last winters storms. This included the uprooting of the railway at Dawlish for the first time since the middle of the 19th century. The fact that you appear to live in a spot that is exempt from the weather that affects others doesn't add validity to generalised comments concerning trends in UK weather..

[mushymanrob]

looking like 'ridgegate' will possibly be the defining moment of the winter.

if we get a ridge as some gfs runs suggest in about ten days time, then theres every chance of some sort of cold evolution, of course it might only produce acg, a benign overcast dull stratusfest . but high pressure around and in the mix in mid-late january always has the potential to deliver something wintry.

on the other hand, if theres no significant ridge, if its weak or non existent, then the chances of something much colder evolving must have growing odds stacked against it happening. its highly unusual to get late freezes when theres been nothing before (and this year we have had a mini spell for some, maybe that counts and is why i still think we should get something). 2013 was a complete exception... which proves things can happen, but the chances arent great IF theres been nothing much before the end of jan.

i get told off in summer for suggesting that therees unlikely to be a hot spell in august IF theres been nothing in june/july... as i see it, weather follows fairly predictable patterns, and when the pattern doesnt allow for something to appear, it very rarely does.

so  a washout june/july making the chances of an august heatwave very unlikely (but not impossible, and im talking heatwave, not average pleasantness) or a reletively mild dec/jan meaning a big freeze in feb is highly unlikely, these are patterns ive noticed and the historical data supports this notion.

so this possible ridge in around ten days time is i think, crucial, if that fails to materialise and evolve into something more substantial, then it would strongly suggest imho that there would be no widespread freeze this winter.