Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[cyclonic happiness]

You know the thing that is worrying me the most about our current weather?

It's not that it's not cold and snowy, or even mild and stormy.

It's that the weather is just so damn boring all the time, literally nothing of note happens for months and months.

 

The last thing of note must have been that cloudburst in Nuneaton which flooded the town centre, I think that was in July, but there's been nothing since, not even much rain.

 

At least if the charts are showing an ice age in FI, that's the only action we seem to get.

 

End of moan (well, for now, I'm sure there'll be plenty more this year lol) 

[Dorsetbred]

As noted in the MOD 2015 thread

emotional rollercoaster, on 05 Jan 2015 - 19:22, said:

I'm starting to believe something is afoot

 

The only thing to believe in the outlook, is 12inches make a foot, nothing else is afoot for certainty.

Edited January 5, 2015 by Dorsetbred

[shetland islands]

My local council contingency planners said back in November that the Metoffice didn't expect it to be a cold winter and it has, so far, been correct. The council here are not buying anymore road salt, so they must have some updated information?

[MP-R]

Some real monsters on the current models. Alex Deakin said tonight how unusual this upcoming weather is for January re intensity of storms and mildness. Let's hope this zonal trash doesn't last beyond midmonth.

[knocker]

North Atlantic jet cranks to 230-knots during week ... 930 mb low pressure stacked under deep trough. +NAO +5 days. Well I suppose that's boring from a meteorological perspective?

[cyclonic happiness]

North Atlantic jet cranks to 230-knots during week ... 930 mb low pressure stacked under deep trough. +NAO +5 days. Well I suppose that's boring from a meteorological perspective?

30 mph winds and some rain that's had the clout knocked out of it by the rain shadow, followed by no showers (we used to get really defined fronts, with showers packing in after the cold fronts, that doesn't happen any more either) yes....that's boring :-D

[knocker]

30 mph winds and some rain that's had the clout knocked out of it by the rain shadow, followed by no showers (we used to get really defined fronts, with showers packing in after the cold fronts, that doesn't happen any more either) yes....that's boring :-D

 

Funny, I was under the impression that there were far more facets to meteorology than an obsession with what's happening in our own backyard. I'm also amazed that we don't get defined fronts anymore. Has anyone written a paper on it?

[Paul]

People are entitled to be interested in whatever they want you know Knocker! Did you perhaps get out of bed the wrong side this morning?

[Dorsetbred]

My local council contingency planners said back in November that the Metoffice didn't expect it to be a cold winter and it has, so far, been correct. The council here are not buying anymore road salt, so they must have some updated information?

That's an interesting comment especially from your part of the world with respect to not purchasing any more road salt. 

I guess that could be one of two reasons, present supplies have not been used so the expectation is that they will last through.

Secondly, the expected milder wetter air will continue for you.

My bet is on the second one and that the lows continue to funnel up between Scotland and Iceland, driving milder conditions.

Of course like all good models, I have a FI clause get out of jail card 

[knocker]

People are entitled to be interested in whatever they want you know Knocker! Did you perhaps get out of bed the wrong side this morning?

 

Moi? I'm always a little ray of sunshine Paul as you well know   Of course people are entitled to be interested in whatever they want but surely one is entitled to comment on "we used to get really defined fronts, with showers packing in after the cold fronts, that doesn't happen any more either)? And the continued use of the word 'boring' does get a tad...........well............boring.

Edited January 6, 2015 by knocker

[snow freak]

God this winter is turning out to be horrendous once again with no real cold and non existent snow.  Even a day or two of snow wouldn't go amiss and surely isn't asking too much but then we are talking about the UK.  Sick and tired of the excitement of anything wintry only to be disappointed as usual.  Why we bother looking at the models and charts when we can almost guarantee that we will end up with the mild options is beyond me.  Wishful thinking I suppose.  I personally give up now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

God this winter is turning out to be horrendous once again with no real cold and non existent snow.  Even a day or two of snow wouldn't go amiss and surely isn't asking too much but then we are talking about the UK.  Sick and tired of the excitement of anything wintry only to be disappointed as usual.  Why we bother looking at the models and charts when we can almost guarantee that we will end up with the mild options is beyond me.  Wishful thinking I suppose.  I personally give up now.

 

an average one really, Jan is always dominated by zonal wind and rain, hopefully cold by Feb

[TonyH]

Moi? I'm always a little ray of sunshine Paul as you well know   Of course people are entitled to be interested in whatever they want but surely one is entitled to comment on "we used to get really defined fronts, with showers packing in after the cold fronts, that doesn't happen any more either)? And the continued use of the word 'boring' does get a tad...........well............boring.

Indeed, the rain for the wetter than average year we just had (including Bedworth) must have come from some kind of atmospheric processes..

[PLANET THANET]

Hi There

      I know people are going to say "not another winter is over post" but to be honest it doesnt look to good and although I cant read the models I do get the general idea that we keep seeing the models push back or destroy our hopes of a decent spell of cold weather, instead all we get is this "mild " overcast rubbish imby . Roll on spring and goodbye winter 2014/15.

               sorry for the rant but created out of frustration.

[Rollo]

Hi There

      I know people are going to say "not another winter is over post" but to be honest it doesnt look to good and although I cant read the models I do get the general idea that we keep seeing the models push back or destroy our hopes of a decent spell of cold weather, instead all we get is this "mild " overcast rubbish imby . Roll on spring and goodbye winter 2014/15.

               sorry for the rant but created out of frustration.

Whilst it is certainly true that this winter has been useless for we snow lovers,there does remain plenty of time for a severe spell and if you cast your mind back over the years the weather can and does change type rapidly,so keep the faith.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I'm not going to write winter off..

I am going to say though, this winter ( approaching halfway through) has been pretty rubbish, one slushy snowfall on Boxing Day apart and a few frosts. First half of January looks a bust. And if what Gibby says is right, then we are pretty much stuck with zonal for the foreseeable.

I was pulled up for suggesting a week ago, that once zonal conditions set in, we could lose a fair chunk of winter as a result. Starting to look a reasonable likelihood doesn't it? As a fan of cold, snowy conditions I take no pleasure or satisfaction from saying that. It takes a bit more than being shown Jam tomorrow charts at t+300 to convince me that at least the first half of this month will be anything other than a bust.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[SE Blizzards]

It's not often i post in here, but i gotta say this Winter is really starting to annoy me!!

And by the looks of the models at present it seems that i am only going to get more and more annoyed as time goes by.

 

Some folk haven't seen snow for nearly 2 years (maybe longer for some)! Shocking really!

 

I'm off to do a snow dance IMBY...

[Captain Shortwave]

It's not often i post in here, but i gotta say this Winter is really starting to annoy me!!

And by the looks of the models at present it seems that i am only going to get more and more annoyed as time goes by.

 

Some folk haven't seen snow for nearly 2 years (maybe longer for some)! Shocking really!

 

I'm off to do a snow dance IMBY...

Feeling it too, especially as the forecast pattern change could very well be towards a brief re-run of last winter with potential for widespread damaging winds and rain. Hopefully it won't last too long or better yet not verify. Either way given the good agreement on a westerly pattern until mid-month, the CET looks potentially to reach a irreparable point where another milder than average month is likely.

Looking beyond January, given the current pattern, I do feel that hopefully the jet with ease up during February, at this point a Feb 2005 or 2008 would do me fine (2005 snowy, 2008 dry and sunny with overnight frosts).

Edited January 6, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Barry12]

I just don't understand whats interesting about storms, we always get rain and wind.

 

an average one really, Jan is always dominated by zonal wind and rain, hopefully cold by Feb

 

No it's not

Edited January 6, 2015 by Barry95

[SE Blizzards]

Feeling it too, especially as the forecast pattern change could very well be towards a brief re-run of last winter with potential for widespread damaging winds and rain. Hopefully it won't last too long or better yet not verify. Either way given the good agreement on a westerly pattern until mid-month, the CET looks potentially to reach a irreparable point where another milder than average month is likely.

 

It's terrible CS, it really is. I don't want to start believing that this 'Winter is over' as it's only Jan 6th, but it's hard not to think that way especially as the UK seems as if it has a massive protective shield against cold weather at the mo, and there is absolutely nothing in the charts that remotely suggest that this shield will in any way be broken any time soon.

 

I just hope we are not slipping back into the 'bad old days' of the late 90's/early 2000's!

Edited January 6, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Paul90]

Another winter like last years abomination.

 

There I've said it.

 

Even Greece Turkey and Cyprus get better than us these days.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This winter if it remains like this will hopefully lead to a summer like the last one with decent convective activity.

If we don't see snow soon, then roll on the CAPE charts please!!

[Captain Shortwave]

It's terrible CS, it really is. I don't want to start believing that this 'Winter is over' as it's only Jan 6th, but it's hard not to think that way especially as the UK seems as if it has a massive protective shield against cold weather at the mo, and there is absolutely nothing in the charts that remotely suggest that this shield will in any way be broken any time soon.

 

I just hope we are not slipping back into the 'bad old days' of the late 90's/early 2000's!

I would say that I would be very surprised if we didn't get e decent northerly or even a Scandi block sometime before March, I would certainly think that we have been very unlucky if we saw out the rest of winter in a mundane zonal westerly phase.

But I am certainly tempted to put January 2015 in the trash bin unless something drastically changes over the next few days.

[John Badrick]

 Can someone explain to me, why, in around ten days time (according to the ten day forecast) for almost the first time snow is showing with a top (feels like) temp of 2  for Bude. Even though the models are looking poor for cold

Edited January 6, 2015 by John Badrick

[SE Blizzards]

I would say that I would be very surprised if we didn't get e decent northerly or even a Scandi block sometime before March, I would certainly think that we have been very unlucky if we saw out the rest of winter in a mundane zonal westerly phase.

But I am certainly tempted to put January 2015 in the trash bin unless something drastically changes over the next few days.

 

I hope you are right CS, i really do.

 

I'm just finding it rather difficult to understand what has gone so wrong? There was so many factors going in our favour this time around, OPI, Weak El Nino, Easterly QBO, Weaker Vortex, Strat Warmings etc etc, but still our luck has been utterly pants.

 

I think that this Winter thus far really does show (no matter how many good signals pre-Winter there are) just how hard it is to get real prolonged cold to the UK.

 

And i agree, January unfortunately does looks like heading straight to the shredder (along with many months prior to it)!!