Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back to 'Model' Banter/Moans/ramps please.

[mushymanrob]

what gets me is being accused of being a 'mildie' (and therefore posts from a mild basis) just for not joining in the 'spot the cold' game. ill post pro-cold when there is cold in the reliable, and i make no claims to be able to predict longer range. but i am a convert to the noaa charts john champions, they ARE a good, best? indication of the general pattern we are likely to get.

yes i like mild weather...but i like all types of weather, that includes some cold in winter. i like mild in feb because it has a special type of feel about it...

[Hocus Pocus]

what gets me is being accused of being a 'mildie' (and therefore posts from a mild basis) just for not joining in the 'spot the cold' game. ill post pro-cold when there is cold in the reliable, and i make no claims to be able to predict longer range. but i am a convert to the noaa charts john champions, they ARE a good, best? indication of the general pattern we are likely to get.yes i like mild weather...but i like all types of weather, that includes some cold in winter. i like mild in feb because it has a special type of feel about it...

Ive never noticed a mild bias in any of your post, you just post what ALL the models and charts are showing mushy. I'm a coldie ( I hate these terms as I love weather ) but I too find the quest for cold a little OTT leading one or two posters to ignore the bigger picture whilst looking for cold nirvana. Edited January 5, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[MPG]

Went away for a week..nothing changed in the output. SSW - lol was never a given even though many 'experts' forecast it.

[Frosty_wsm]

You can guarantee almost 90% of these posters will be gone by April before coming back in Oct to talk about 1963 etc

And what's the problem with that exactly?? If some posters like hunting for cold weather then why would they stick around outside of the winter months!

And as for any '63 style posts regarding how the charts look, do you really think people are being serious, they're just making light hearted comments on how charts may look similar to great cold spells of years gone by, they're not saying a re-run is imminent lol.

As for the here and now, I'm liking the signals showing in a lot of model runs for around mid month, will be interesting to see if these interesting charts get closer or whether they vanish altogether, with the way this winter has gone so far you'd probably have to bet on any cold signal to dissappear but you never know.

[mushymanrob]

Ive never noticed a mild bias in any of your post, you just post what ALL the models and charts are showing mushy. I'm a coldie ( I hate these terms as I love weather ) but I too find the quest for cold a little OTT leading one or two posters to ignore the bigger picture whilst looking for cold nirvana.

 

cheers for that, however some people have indicated they think otherwise... ho hum..

interesting to see whether this fi ridge actually becomes reality and if so what the nature of it will be. so far the gfs is alone going out far enough to suggest its existence, but every gfs run poses a different solution to what might become apparent.

but i do think there will be a shortish cold spell, something like a week or so, before this winters done, and one that will be more widespread then the one i got just after crimbo.

[edo]

this place sadly never changes, I have been trying to learn to read the charts for the last 2 years with the litlle bits of spare time i have and for the most this site offers so much insight it is invaluable. The trouble is and it is a social networking problem,  not a this site problem, is people say things online and particularly make confrontational comments that they would never do in a real social situation.

 

It is only natural people have their bias but the sniping is constant from many and often what i see as genuine questions as to what their interpretations are end up being taken as challenges. I also think people struggle to understand that there can be two points of view to how a chart will develop. There are also the smug posts where people are condescending and over confident in their own abilities.

 

I think however ironically the worst are those who clearly want cold and then type some ridiculous reverse psychology posts of months being over etc. I have also been saddened by the sniping towards the strat guys as if they have promised the day after tomorrow and no snowy weather on the horizon.  

 

In short I now have learned to just skip through roll my eyes and move on to the next post that does not belittle others as I dont see that this will ever be resolved as it appears to be a human nature thing rather than a netweather thing. I realise by contributing i am ironically commenting on the debate that i think everyone should just ignore

 

I myself cherry pick cold charts which is why i need the balance of others showing the mild evolutions so thanks to all who contribute

[cheeky_monkey]

There should be a MOD for the experienced and reasoned posters who post in the thread all year round...only those with good rep and high number of post can post it but all can read..and a separate MOD thread for those learning and looking to gain promotion to the above..all the people who ruin the MOD in winter can sit in there and snipe and hunt for cold all they like...the rest of us can go read the real MOD thread without scrolling through pages of drivel to find out what is really going on...I don't even read the MOD thread in winter and haven't for a few years now.

[MPG]

There should be a MOD for the experienced and reasoned posters who post in the thread all year round...only those with good rep and high number of post can post it but all can read..and a separate MOD thread for those learning and looking to gain promotion to the above..all the people who ruin the MOD in winter can sit in there and snipe and hunt for cold all they like...the rest of us can go read the real MOD thread without scrolling through pages of drivel to find out what is really going on...I don't even read the MOD thread in winter and haven't for a few years now.

Totally disagree, this a public forum and should not be separated out due to number of posts of popularity....its the MOD's job to delete the drivel and off topic posts which they do very well. 

Edited January 5, 2015 by MPG

[cheeky_monkey]

Totally disagree, this a public forum and should not be separated out due to number of posts of popularity....its the MOD's job to delete the drivel and off topic posts which they do very well. 

im not talking about post of popularity im talking about posters who post well reasoned thoughts and chart analysis daily all year round..when I joined this forum 10 years ago the MOD thread was mostly that...now it has become a no go area in winter just like the inmates taking over the asylum for 3/4 months then they disappear again.

[SLEETY]

big changes by end of jan,to big cold spell  i think.i sense it.that always seems to work when i sense it you know

i just sense things and they always happen

you read it here first

Edited January 5, 2015 by SLEETY

[MPG]

im not talking about post of popularity im talking about posters who post well reasoned thoughts and chart analysis daily all year round..when I joined this forum 10 years ago the MOD thread was mostly that...now it has become a no go area in winter just like the inmates taking over the asylum for 3/4 months then they disappear again.

Basically your saying the MOD's need to do their job......I think they are. Do you recommend people start paying to subscribe too? That might get rid of the people you don't welcome.

Edited January 5, 2015 by MPG

[Guest]

im not talking about post of popularity im talking about posters who post well reasoned thoughts and chart analysis daily all year round..when I joined this forum 10 years ago the MOD thread was mostly that...now it has become a no go area in winter just like the inmates taking over the asylum for 3/4 months then they disappear again.

 

I don't bother with the model thread for exactly the same reason. It's ok during summer but at this time of year it's hijacked by the whackos. It's much better in the regional threads, although perhaps a little slow moving at times.

 

It's going to be interesting to see what the ECM starts to make of the possible pattern change now that's it coming into the 240hr range. A blast of cold weather would go down extremely well with me

[SLEETY]

whackos a bit harsh.people just love looking for cold and snowy weather because its so rare in uk.so if theres a sniff of it people will get excited.

[Guest]

whackos a bit harsh.people just love looking for cold and snowy weather because its so rare in uk.so if theres a sniff of it people will get excited.

 

Not harsh at all, that was the polite version to get around the sweary box filter. It's the model output discussion thread, not the "I'm right, you're wrong" or "I can stamp my foot harder than you" thread. Can you even begin to imagine what the thread would look like if it wasn't moderated? I've had the luck to have had a short turn at moderating and you wouldn't believe what you don't see in that thread at times (i.e. the level of moderating can be very high at times in terms of what's edited out). It's pretty shocking that debating the weather can descend into such a shambles.

 

It's fine getting super-excited about snow and cold, I do it all the time. However, I do it in the appropriate thread, not in the M.O.D. thread.

[Paul]

This being the model banter/ramps/moans thread I think we need to steer back to that rather than sniping at other members. 

 

For what it's worth, from what I see 99% of those using the model thread don't cause issues and certainly aren't 'whackos', the vast majority of posts are ok and when they're not we try to deal with them. We can deal with them much more quickly when people report them and don't respond to them too - a dodgy post reported straight away is much easier to sort then a dodgy post with 20 responses. 

 

The team aren't blind of course, with people obviously investing some (a lot in some cases?) emotional energy into the desire for cold weather in winter the thread can have it's moments, and it clearly has a strong slant towards the hunt for cold, and people do enjoy the ride at this time of year, but so long as people don't go ott, or deliberately wind others up, and use this thread for some of the ramps and moans etc it all generally hangs together pretty well. I think sometimes people tend to get hung up on the odd problem which obviously tends to stand out more than the multitude of perfectly decent posts and then judge the whole thing based on that. 

 

Of course it's never going to be everyone's cup of tea (you can't please everyone no matter how hard you try!), but fortunately there are many other threads on here for alternate discussions.

 

The irony is, the only people sniping and name calling today for instance are a couple of those in this thread, as there's none in the model thread at all - it's just good natured, interesting discussion. So perhaps it's time to move on - if anyone wants to discuss the ins and outs though, or has any ideas/feedback in terms of improvements they'd like to see in the thread or the forum overall please feel free to pm me or any of the other team members.

[snow freak]

I have confidence the Jetstream will finally head southwards and there will be SSW ....... just in time for Spring in April.  This happens time and time again in the UK when it is no good to anyone by that stage and we just end up with a belated winter that appears to late and a delayed spring, which by this point we are all desperate for.  This scenario ultimately ends up pleasing no one.  C'mon UK weather buck your ideas up for heaven's sake.

[Andrew snow hope]

Hi

 

Love this site and neither have a ramp or a moan, I am after a recomendation for a good book that will help me understand the weather models and teach me how to conclude my own forecast predictions. If you are happy to recommend something useful it would be much appreciated and then I can join in! Sorry that this is posted in the wrong area ... didn't know where best to post it.  

[JeffC]

I think that people are getting mixed up between the MOD - Model Output Discussion and MOD as in abbreviation for moderators which changes the meaning and turns it into something nonsensical...

[snow freak]

what gets me is being accused of being a 'mildie' (and therefore posts from a mild basis) just for not joining in the 'spot the cold' game. ill post pro-cold when there is cold in the reliable, and i make no claims to be able to predict longer range. but i am a convert to the noaa charts john champions, they ARE a good, best? indication of the general pattern we are likely to get.

yes i like mild weather...but i like all types of weather, that includes some cold in winter. i like mild in feb because it has a special type of feel about it...

you are so lucky liking mild weather which is precisely what we usually get in this country.  I wish I hated cold and snowy weather as we live in one of the worst places for either of those types of weather.  I may have to undergo hypnosis.

[snow freak]

well I have to say the Netweather winter forecast is not looking too accurate at the present time.

[Ali1977]

I got my cold/snow fix yesterday as luckily I'm away skiing, however Like last year I'm slowly starting the feeling nothing remotely cold/snowy is going to make it to the UK in the remaining few months. Let's hope I'm wrong as this is way early to think that . 2 years without a snowflake hitting my garden would be rubbish.

[cyclonic happiness]

im not talking about post of popularity im talking about posters who post well reasoned thoughts and chart analysis daily all year round..when I joined this forum 10 years ago the MOD thread was mostly that...now it has become a no go area in winter just like the inmates taking over the asylum for 3/4 months then they disappear again.

But there is a thread for that. Has been for a round 4 years now........nobody goes there, doesn't that tell you something? :-)

 

The whole thing I love about this forum is it's dynamic and passionate, we cannot go around censoring folk just because they've not got a degree in meteorology.

 

The mods do a good job as it is weeding out the occasional idiots, No need for change IMO. :-)

[Polar Maritime]

No more in this^ subject or they will be deleted, Any issues with threads/members just simply Pm a Mod. Please continue with 'Model Banter/Ramps/Moans.

 

Many Thanks, PM

[Milhouse]

How about this for a mild sector