Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[stewfox]

I bet it will snow on the sun before it ever snows here again, what a load of pants

Are we talking about settling snow ? I might take that bet.

Edited January 4, 2015 by stewfox

[carinthian]

March 2013 was the last time many saw real snow. Now 2015, must be some sought of record that ! If I was still living there, I would have to turn to drink but your pubs are a good refuge to hide your sorrows of looking for the allusive cold to arrive some day, never in a million years looking at those horrible charts.

C

[Spah1]

Fergies latest tweets = bad news.

[carinthian]

March 2013 was the last time many saw real snow. Now 2015, must be some sought of record that ! If I was still living there, I would have to turn to drink but your pubs are a good refuge to hide your sorrows of looking for the allusive cold to arrive some day, never in a million years looking at those horrible charts.

This winters reminds me of the dross mildness of the early 1970s dominated by warm flow around the Azores high with only cold intrusions occasionally north of 55 parallel.

 C

[Continental Climate]

I believe that the MOD thread in the next few weeks will consist of IDO and mushy slapping each other on the back and congratulating each other on what fantastic forecasters they are in contrast to all the others who said we would have a cold hearted winter. Well go for it lads its gonna get lonely in that thread for you two.

[joggs]

Well somethings over riding the promising signals at the start of winter.I think imo you can write most of Jan off simply by the mo further updates and no expected signals to move the stained glass windowing vortex from Greenland.Im a coldie but all i see is a frustrating rest of winter ahead.I cant wait untill the next solar min and the amo to flip to cold state in a year or 2. We just seem to be in the wrong place in the nh.

Even the jet stream is not tracking south like some said it would.

A cold America for me more often than not blows our chanes for sustained cold imo.I remeber the cold spell of 91 and ne america had record warmth the time we went into freezer.Im hoping feb might produce but the way these patterns keep repeating,perish the thought.

Rant over,i'll report back to the model thread at the end of the wk with recharged batterys lol.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

We should have a hunt for cold thread so if there's good signs and cold prospects in Fantasy land even tho we know they might not verify we can post and talk about it without being shot down all the time

Edited January 4, 2015 by Skeggy Winter Storm

[March Blizzard]

Quite odd how people are writing the whole of January off (never mind the whole winter) on just the 4th. It's almost as if the models are always accurate and that they actually create the weather, rather than forecast what they think the weather will do.

It might not look encouraging at the moment but massive changes can and do happen, sometimes on very short notice.

Out of interest, would a deep freeze and snow fest during the last week of the month, after a mild first 3 weeks or so, be considered a write off? Seen as though we have little idea of what the weather will be like from the 24th onwards, how can the month be written off so early?

[weirpig]

Well fantasy is probably the best you'll get this winter, writing is on the wall and I'll eat my own hat if we end up with decent cold spell.

Well if its  the hat in your profile  pic  its probably the best place for it!

[JoeShmoe]

You just know HLB will set up in April when we are looking for spring !

[karlos1983]

Well if its  the hat in your profile  pic  its probably the best place for it!

Now now, I lost that hat and I'm most upset about it!

[mushymanrob]

I believe that the MOD thread in the next few weeks will consist of IDO and mushy slapping each other on the back and congratulating each other on what fantastic forecasters they are in contrast to all the others who said we would have a cold hearted winter. Well go for it lads its gonna get lonely in that thread for you two.

You have got me (us? I cant speak for ido) all wrong.

I make absolutely no claims to be a fantastic forecaster, im not, and youll find that some popular rampers have a terrible predictionsuccess rate.

I say what i see from an unbiased a view as i can, and if that means dispelling cold evolution myths then so be it. I dont court popularity, that means diddly squat to me, but i do court what i believe to be realism. When theres a real, tangible case for cold then ill post that. But ill not play the 'spot the cold evolution' game. Those who do are welcome to do it, its a seasonal bit of fun, but fantasy island hoping is pointless unless its understood that its unlikely to happen

[mushymanrob]

Oh.... And IF we get a cold hearted winter, just watch who gets the backslapping accolade, ...

And it wont be the pros or senior forecasters who have made long term intelligent, reasoned cases.

[DAVID SNOW]

Oh.... And IF we get a cold hearted winter, just watch who gets the backslapping accolade, ...

And it wont be the pros or senior forecasters who have made long term intelligent, reasoned cases.

 

 

Are you Bitter or mild Mushy?

[John Badrick]

News from IF re latest UK Met: 

 

  fergieweather

New @metoffice data indicates no major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is likely to occur "in the forseeable future". Moreover (cont'd)04/01/2015 19:51

 

  fergieweather

Cont'd... they note their monthly and seasonal modelling from back on Dec 27 dismissed the prospect. They add that a... (cont'd)04/01/2015 19:53

 

  fergieweather

Cont'd (3)...minor warming will be of minor significance, & resurgence of Polar Vortex/Polar Night Jet through nxt 2 weeks to 'near-normal'04/01/2015 19:57

 

  fergieweather

(4) Finally, they add "The model ouput of other reputable forecasting organisations is also in agreement with the Met Office model trends."04/01/2015 19:59

 

  fergieweather

(5) The @metoffice view re stratospheric situation was valid as of 1400hrs today. Clearly, the rest of winter cannot be forecast in detail.04/01/2015 20:03

 

 

I suppose that puts that to bed for this month.

Watch the "winters over" posts come in thick and fast after this bit of news

[Lord Baltimore]

Looks to me that winter is over

[john mac]

Looks to me that winter is over

Yep!! That's it see you all next winter lol

[mushymanrob]

Are you Bitter or mild Mushy?

Try red... Lol

[John Badrick]

Looks to me that winter is over

On cue

[cornish snow]

Speak for yourself, I'm talking about a UK wide cold spell, not a North or elevation event.

And again March won't deliver in the South, maybe once in couple of decades, but not often. Maybe for your backyard

Feb is iffy for me karlos

[Frosty_wsm]

And again March won't deliver in the South, maybe once in couple of decades, but not often. Maybe for your backyard

Had snow on the ground imby for a few days back in March 2006, so according to you I won't be seeing that again for about 20 years, nope sorry don't buy that myself lol. That wasn't the only time I've seen lying snow here in March either and there wasn't a few decades in between so for me I count all of March as being able to deliver lying snow imby and I'm in the South at sea level a few miles from the coast! Not that I want snow by then though as I'm looking forward to spring at that time of year.

[Carl46Wrexham]

We can chuck the first half of January in the bin yes? That Azores high (the fat slug) just does not want to move........watch it hightail away when we actually want it around though!

[Costa Del Fal]

You have got me (us? I cant speak for ido) all wrong.

I make absolutely no claims to be a fantastic forecaster, im not, and youll find that some popular rampers have a terrible predictionsuccess rate.

I say what i see from an unbiased a view as i can, and if that means dispelling cold evolution myths then so be it. I dont court popularity, that means diddly squat to me, but i do court what i believe to be realism. When theres a real, tangible case for cold then ill post that. But ill not play the 'spot the cold evolution' game. Those who do are welcome to do it, its a seasonal bit of fun, but fantasy island hoping is pointless unless its understood that its unlikely to happen

Totally agree with this. 

 

Too many posts on here are clouded over by an evident cold bias. Nothing wrong with favouring cold but the lack of balanced posts really must be a pain for newbies. Its a shame how many disappear when the weather doesnt show what they want. Says quite a lot really. 

 

People can chase FI all they like but sadly many will never learn that such charts rarely come to fruition and a better understanding of the larger driving factors behind our weather our needed. People need to take a look at the broadscale picture. 

 

Maybe one day...

[IDO]

You have got me (us? I cant speak for ido) all wrong.

I make absolutely no claims to be a fantastic forecaster, im not, and youll find that some popular rampers have a terrible predictionsuccess rate.

I say what i see from an unbiased a view as i can, and if that means dispelling cold evolution myths then so be it. I dont court popularity, that means diddly squat to me, but i do court what i believe to be realism. When theres a real, tangible case for cold then ill post that. But ill not play the 'spot the cold evolution' game. Those who do are welcome to do it, its a seasonal bit of fun, but fantasy island hoping is pointless unless its understood that its unlikely to happen

Yes I agree, there is room for posters to add some balance to the very strong cold bias members. That is as long as they are reasoned. Trolling is not wanted and I feel there are few if any blatant trollers. There are the storm watchers, mild inclined, emotional, commentators and HP favouring along with the majority snowy posters. I post what I see and am there to be shot down if I am wrong. Newcomers appreciate a balanced forum and it is only because the weather this winter has been disappointing that the messenger gets shot!

FWIW there is still a chance of a Major SSW this winter but as expected it will be back ended if it happens. SSW's is a relatively new science and we are learning all the time, and maybe warming's need other variables to be favourable to get that all important polar vortex smash up?

Edited January 5, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[JoeShmoe]

Totally agree with this. 

 

Too many posts on here are clouded over by an evident cold bias. Nothing wrong with favouring cold but the lack of balanced posts really must be a pain for newbies. Its a shame how many disappear when the weather doesnt show what they want. Says quite a lot really. 

 

People can chase FI all they like but sadly many will never learn that such charts rarely come to fruition and a better understanding of the larger driving factors behind our weather our needed. People need to take a look at the broadscale picture. 

 

Maybe one day...

You can guarantee almost 90% of these posters will be gone by April before coming back in Oct to talk about 1963 etc

Balance and realism is needed not just blind hope casting - room for both thought in my book without the coldies accusing people of shooting them down when things look like they do just now