Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[johnholmes]

is it so difficult to display charts and give your view on what weather might affect different parts of the UK?This is of benefit for new folk not yet used to interpreting model charts.

 

For the rest if someone posts a UK chart and then tells us what they think will happen in their back yard is it really difficult to look at the chart of the WHOLE UK and not arrive at your own conclusion rather than the petty arguing that seems to so easily develop in this area of the forum?

Edited January 7, 2015 by johnholmes

[weather_it_will]

 

This is the model forum, and not the regional weather forum.

Edited January 7, 2015 by 'ColdIsBest'

[TonyH]

So basically you're saying that everywhere else has more violent and interesting weather than the most central town in the country?

North Wales, Somerset, Dawlish are all on the coast, you move 20 miles inland and the wind will go from 90mph to 50mph, then go 100 miles inland, it'll be 30mph

But there were damaging winds in the Midlands and Warwickshire last Winter too..why even a possible tornado just up the road from you!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-25908932

Edited January 7, 2015 by TonyH

[Daniel*]

Great post by PolarWarsaw, it is unfortunate that London looks unlikely to get snow, but it is a fact it's one of the mildest places in the UK. If I lived in London I would certainly not expect to see prolonged cold and snowy spells, as there very rare. If we do get snow it will be the second snowfall of the winter for many in the North.

I disagree yes settling snow is rare in CL but London has had some great snowfalls in recent years and before that, good easterly there is no marginality, whatsoever its quite misleading knowing I live in London and have seen snow fall many times. Solent/Western fringes & far SW is where its rare as hens teeth. Some come across like London ought to be in another country.

[TonyH]

I said in my comment before that it was in my area of the UK not the whole UK quote "where I live you'd marvel at the lack of weather". 

But no more or less marvellous than anywhere else in the Midlands from what I have noticed as someone who lived there 33 years and has closely observed from a distance these past 20. The Midlands is a sheltered region, rather dry and only quite infrequently gets heavy snowfall.

Edited January 7, 2015 by TonyH

[mushymanrob]

Look at the bigger picture, the north west of the UK looks like having significant snow at times next week and it looks colder than average for many areas..unless the Gfs is completely wrong of course.

How long have you been on here karl? You must know by now that the gfs regularly overcooks things in fi, and next week is fi. And you are placing all your eggs in one badket, the gfs. Whats the ecm's take on next week? Oh yes not quite as cold looking, lol and the ever accurate anomaly charts dont smack of too much cold.

So people in the northwest might get some more wintry weather but the majority of us wont, and thsts using the current gfs and assumes they verify.

[knocker]

Everyone rattling on about their own backyard and nary a mention of Cornwall. Goddammit we so very rarely get biting cold and snow. But then that's why it's such a great place to live.

[alexisj9]

A poor set of runs tonight im afraid, nothing much to see around mid-month on this set. They have all gone flat so no ridging in the Atlantic. We now get another tease at the end of GFS(P) but once again anything seems to me to have been moved back.

The positives to take though are that there is always some playing about with the pattern on each set of runs now, so there is obviously a signal for change. We wont know what will happen of course yet, but id bet we will get something more interesting from mid-month onwards than whats being shown tonight.

 

Just an aside - What does it take to get a red warning from the met?? Models have clearly shown this storm for days now and BBC weather just showed 100mph winds for Scotland and it gets amber? Really?

Red warning normally do not get posted until the day, so you may yet get one unless the storm downgrades, and there is still a little time for that.

[weather_it_will]

 

Red warning normally do not get posted until the day, so you may yet get one unless the storm downgrades, and there is still a little time for that.

 

What the models show and what we actually get are usually totally different. 

Too many Meto weather warnings materialize into nothing as it is already.

Often these warnings just affect small communities, while most of us wonder why the need for a warning when nothing happened.

[Danielvn]

What do you do when it gets cold?  I know Perth gets very hot most of the year but a friend of mine went in winter and she said it was like a general winters day here in the southwest england ie chilly although probaly doesn't get as cold and for a shorter period too, I think perth rarely gets frost though from my research.  Proper snow is fairly rare in Exeter, although winter of 2009 - 2010 was an exeception.

 

Yes most houses are better insulated, I remember when I was little always being freezing in the winter, I'm sure that's why I always put the heating on when it goes below 10 degrees celcius.

I love the cold, the coldest minimum on record actually happened the day after I moved to the UK. A balmy -0.7 degrees.

The cold doesn't bother me at all here in the UK.

[Danielvn]

Maybe time to create a "Midlands North" model output discussion thread? Really is getting quite tedious and off putting coming in here to check the model output due to the southern bias and a few posts above have really just proved this!

Bias? If you want to talk about the weather where you live then do so. People will naturally talk about the weather where they live or have lived before as that's what they're used to. There's no "bias" going on.

Now can everybody get back to talking about the weather in coastal North Wales because that's where I live now. Cheers

[knocker]

What the models show and what we actually get are usually totally different. 

Too many Meto weather warnings materialize into nothing as it is already.

Often these warnings just affect small communities, while most of us wonder why the need for a warning when nothing happened.

 

Well i would ask fishermen and seamen in all other aspects of shipping who find warnings invaluable and they have saved many lives. If they don't always materialise so what, Do you think they worry about that.

 

So carry on wondering.

[cyclonic happiness]

But there were damaging winds in the Midlands and Warwickshire last Winter too..why even a possible tornado just up the road from you!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-25908932

I'll admit, the only weather of note are thunderstorms, but we only had I think two the whole of last year. There was a summer in around 2000 where we must have had at least 20.  You do see alot of tornado activity around here during storms, I've got photos of 3 myself, and Nuneaton area always seems to get tornadoes lol.   But that doesn't excuse the 95% of the rest of the year where the mono-weather happens.

[Danielvn]

What the models show and what we actually get are usually totally different. 

Too many Meto weather warnings materialize into nothing as it is already.

Often these warnings just affect small communities, while most of us wonder why the need for a warning when nothing happened.

 

I think you're missing the point, a warning is a warning of potential weather, not a promise.....

[Danielvn]

I'll admit, the only weather of note are thunderstorms, but we only had I think two the whole of last year. There was a summer in around 2000 where we must have had at least 20.  You do see alot of tornado activity around here during storms, I've got photos of 3 myself, and Nuneaton area always seems to get tornadoes lol.   But that doesn't excuse the 95% of the rest of the year where the mono-weather happens.

 

If you want more interesting weather then move to the coast, preferably a west or north facing one. I'm not quite sure what your moan is about, it's not like we can do anything directly to promote more thunderstorms or tornadoes or blizzards.... Most of the weather is always going to be boring, if we had snow every day then you'd quickly get used to it and it would become normal. People in India don't find the monsoon all that amazing as it happens every year and it's just normal, but if you or I were to go there we'd find it amazing.

[cornish snow]

Everyone rattling on about their own backyard and nary a mention of Cornwall. Goddammit we so very rarely get biting cold and snow. But then that's why it's such a great place to live.

Why are you such a "mildy" Knocker??

 

Don't you get fed up with the endless wind and rain we get down here?

 

I agree,cornwall is a great place to live but don't you think a bit of the white stuff once every decade or so,might be nice?

 

For me,it's what makes snowy weather that bit more precious here.

 

Have a heart Knocker,give us coldies a break.

[knocker]

Why are you such a "mildy" Knocker??

 

Don't you get fed up with the endless wind and rain we get down here?

 

I agree,cornwall is a great place to live but don't you think a bit of the white stuff once every decade or so,might be nice?

 

For me,it's what makes snowy weather that bit more precious here.

 

Have a heart Knocker,give us coldies a break.

 

I would expect little else from someone from the Lizard. They are all a bit odd down there.

[cornish snow]

I would expect little else from someone from the Lizard. They are all a bit odd down there.

Damm right,and proud of it!

 

Are you the house that mums miss out when doing trick-a-treating,i wonder?

[mushymanrob]

seems that something might be brewing..... but its in fi... it would be foolish to pop any corks just yet.

[Hocus Pocus]

seems that something might be brewing..... but its in fi... it would be foolish to pop any corks just yet.

Indeed, changes afoot as we approach the second half of this month. The question is are we looking at a cooler or colder outlook and how long for.

[mushymanrob]

Indeed, changes afoot as we approach the second half of this month. The question is are we looking at a cooler or colder outlook and how long for.

 

well its not set in stone, but theres a growing chance for something wintry... it might not happen, it might be a short spell or it might be a decent spell... but theres a chance.

[Summer Sun]

@RyanMaue

 

UK Met model is being upgraded in April & experimental grids are available at 17 km resolution

 

UK Met also launching upgraded set of ensembles ... my spare computer capacity might just be gobbled up.

 

The GFS upgrade is also due next week

[cyclonic happiness]

If you want more interesting weather then move to the coast, preferably a west or north facing one. I'm not quite sure what your moan is about, it's not like we can do anything directly to promote more thunderstorms or tornadoes or blizzards.... Most of the weather is always going to be boring, if we had snow every day then you'd quickly get used to it and it would become normal. People in India don't find the monsoon all that amazing as it happens every year and it's just normal, but if you or I were to go there we'd find it amazing.

The moan is about the fact that I used to love the severity and variability of the weather in the 80s and 90s which is lacking now, also this is a moaning thread and I need to let off steam every now and then (who knows, might lead to convection and then thunderstorms and snow) :-D

[cyclonic happiness]

The other thing I can't get my head around is how, if you watch the precipitation maps on meteociel or whoever, the centre of England is in the biggest rain shadow in Europe.

 

It's like the fack that countries either side of the 10,000+ Alps are getting plenty of precipitation and yet we, the wettest part of Europe as an island, are in the most effective rain shadow of the 2,500ft Cambrian mountains.

 

So, when a front approaches us bearing snow, it all gets dumped over Wales and fizzles out over the Midlands, then goes over the channel to France and peps up again, then crosses the Alps and is absolutely fine dumping tons of snow over the Eastern Block.

[Danielvn]

The other thing I can't get my head around is how, if you watch the precipitation maps on meteociel or whoever, the centre of England is in the biggest rain shadow in Europe.

 

It's like the fack that countries either side of the 10,000+ Alps are getting plenty of precipitation and yet we, the wettest part of Europe as an island, are in the most effective rain shadow of the 2,500ft Cambrian mountains.

 

So, when a front approaches us bearing snow, it all gets dumped over Wales and fizzles out over the Midlands, then goes over the channel to France and peps up again, then crosses the Alps and is absolutely fine dumping tons of snow over the Eastern Block.

Welcome to physics, you can't opt out.