Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[fromey]

looks like we can write off the whole winter, another snowless one

????snowless?? i think you will find that a few people have seen some snow  already.

[OldMetMan]

I don't post here normally but it seems like a good time to add a bit of perspective to the current disappointed view of this winter so far as it's very early days.

 

I first became hooked on the weather in 1967 when I was still at school and have been an addict since. I have witnessed some spectacular weather events and even in my advanced years, I find the weather interests me more than anything else.

 

I loved the snow when I was younger, not so much now as it's harder for me to keep the cold out, but I love to watch cold situations developing (such as the remarkable December 2010) and I am constantly on the lookout for any sign. Apart from 1962/63, every winter with significant cold weather that I remember happened after December was over. Indeed, the coldest spells in my youth were always in February. So, for those who are writing winter off, there is tons of time for things to change.

 

I was thinking today about the current long wave configuration around the hemisphere, with several high-amplitude waves, and that what we have here, a big, fat 500mb ridge over and to the west, in different circumstances would see us benefiting from a surface HP to the N and NE, with bitter east winds. But this is not so and it looks decidedly odd to me that we apparently are about to launch straight into a very unsettled progressive flow from this situation. Why is this long wave pattern collapsing so quickly and easily? That remains to be seen.

 

Having the benefit of a long weather memory, as well as noting when snow used to occur, I can also recall many winters in which snow was virtually absent and living as I did on the south coast, I accepted that this was a feature of my location, with the relatively warm sea close by. Yet in my younger days, I never imagined that global warming would soon become a major issue and for a while, I was somewhat impressed by the evidence.

 

However, I once took a course with the OU on the subject and after about 2 months of studying the material, including projections of warming well into this century, it dawned on me that this was utter rubbish! When I look at day to day model output, I can usually tell if the predictions look reasonable or possible, and I try not to put too much faith in the longer term. Yet, this course was asking me to accept predictions out to 2050! I packed it in because even with my limited scientific understanding, it all just looked plain wrong.

 

Since then, if for no other reason, I have concluded that any predictions of temperature rises of the order predicted are based on a minute sliver of data within the massively long history of this planet, and as such are flawed at source.

 

So too with our daily model runs that we set so much store by. If a chart verifies at 5 days we consider that a success. Therefore, I would urge people to use their experience and their common sense when considering output and not take anything for granted. In our massive climatological history, the variations that have occurred, even in the thousands of years for which we can deduce data, have been huge and of infinite variety. The various indicators that have gained credence in relatively recent years I see as just that; indicators not causes in themselves. The weather is a system with myriad interacting parts, so assessing the role of any one indicator is future weather can never be done in isolation. Indeed, I maintain our conscious minds do not have the capacity to weigh up so many variables and come to any conclusion. That ability resides in the subconscious - intuition and hunches are its output.

 

Study the current charts, that's what I believe in and learn the patterns to our fascinating climate in this country. Anything is possible if you look at how far we've come and what we must have already experienced, so never pre-judge and expect the unexpected!

 

So ends the lecture from the OldMetMan!

 

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

oh dear , wake me in the spring !!!....

On the contrary the ECMWF offers hope

It's the only thing us 'coldies' have to grab on and I'm holding on tight.

[Barry12]

What is Barry ???....

 

The pattern change...

[Mokidugway]

On the contrary the ECMWF offers hope

image.jpg

It's the only thing us 'coldies' have to grab on and I'm holding on tight.

to quot obi wan kenobi ,this isn't the cold your looking for ....

[Skullzrulerz]

precisely deep FI, I have already written January off as Dan knows! (for low levels south only though) but not writing winter off, Feb and Mar snow potential months, and aren't we due a good Feb?

 

Okay lets write January off even before its started.

 

At the very least i will go to write off January is the first ten days to be honest yes set-up for cold looks like as doom and gloom as ever as allways and that only thing that is a plus is the SSW.

 

Some models go only out to around mid-way of January and yet you write off the second half of January without no model proof.

 

However on a brighter note for coldies back in around mid December all the models are showing and endless,countless mild,wet,windy or whatever you want to call it regime.

 

However things can change as around the 20th time frame the models were than showing a cold spell (Yes it did get downgrade in the end) which happened.

 

So let's take it one day at a time one run at a time repeat.

 

You never know the cold might be back on the models in the next 24 hours.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Pardon me if i've misread but fergieweather's post seems to suggest little to no cold for the south for most of Jan,

[mushymanrob]

Pardon me if i've misread but fergieweather's post seems to suggest little to no cold for the south for most of Jan,

True, theres no apparent deep cold spell for most of january, though one might come later and into early feb. Classic buchan spell. However this is only a prediction and its not set in stone.

[cobbett]

Interesting comment re fetgie on the mod thread and to marvel at the forecast for basically zonal weather for the foreseeable. Would be an interesting experiment to transpose the US weather guys to our shores and vice versa. Methinks the US lot would be bored out of their minds with our weather

[Mokidugway]

But it's our lot , I think we expect to much ,after all travel broadens the mind ....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Interesting comment re fetgie on the mod thread and to marvel at the forecast for basically zonal weather for the foreseeable. Would be an interesting experiment to transpose the US weather guys to our shores and vice versa. Methinks the US lot would be bored out of their minds with our weather

 

cannot see what there is to like about zonal weather, I mean grey wind and rain? how can anyone like low pressure,

 

I mean sunny and mild, people may like that, say bartlett

Edited December 30, 2014 by ScottRichards10
Just to remove the swear word.

[Mokidugway]

Zonal weather is often a major component to our snow events , is it not ......

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Zonal weather is often a major component to our snow events , is it not .... ..

 

for Scotland, high levels north yes, but low levels south useless

[Mokidugway]

for Scotland, high levels north yes, but low levels south useless

what about battle ground scenarios ??...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

what about battle ground scenarios ??...

 

no cos zonal means generally east to west jet, low after low tracking mainly north of scotland, rain for south, snow to Scottish mountains, low levels Scotland as cold front moves through, then another warm sector,

[TonyH]

Interesting comment re fetgie on the mod thread and to marvel at the forecast for basically zonal weather for the foreseeable. Would be an interesting experiment to transpose the US weather guys to our shores and vice versa. Methinks the US lot would be bored out of their minds with our weather

I understand his sentiment as I seem to be able find marvel in all weather situations how it accrues, morphs and no day is quite the same as the last...

cannot see what there is to like about zonal weather, I mean grey wind and rain? how can anyone like low pressure,

 

I mean sunny and mild, people may like that, say bartlett

I do! I also like high pressure - get it?

Edited December 30, 2014 by ScottRichards10
To remove a swear word from a quoted post.

[Mokidugway]

no cos zonal means generally east to west jet, low after low tracking mainly north of scotland, rain for south, snow to Scottish mountains, low levels Scotland as cold front moves through, then another warm sector,

what about the Atlantic train pushing up against the polar express bound to get something from that ???.

[stewfox]

True, theres no apparent deep cold spell for most of january, though one might come later and into early feb. Classic buchan spell. However this is only a prediction and its not set in stone.

why are long term model predictions treated with such reverence ?. Sometimes the best guess monthly CET forecasts by experts are 3/4c degrees out. FI remains 144

Edited December 30, 2014 by stewfox

[Great Plum]

no cos zonal means generally east to west jet, low after low tracking mainly north of scotland, rain for south, snow to Scottish mountains, low levels Scotland as cold front moves through, then another warm sector,

An East to west jet would be awesome - sounds like a great easterly!

[Mark Neal.]

Reverse Zonality would be pretty epic if we had cold sourced air.

[Mokidugway]

...

Edited December 31, 2014 by reef
Probably not suitable for this thread, cheers

[knocker]

Now that there appears to be little danger of very strong winds tomorrow one can concentrate more on the cold aspect. On the GFS five day average anomaly there isn't one section with below average temps out to the 16th.

Chart weatherbell

Edited December 31, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Now that there appears to be little danger of very strong winds tomorrow one can concentrate more on the cold aspect. On the GFS five average anomaly there isn't one section with below average temps out to the 16th.

Chart weatherbell

 

 

Yes not so much of a cold hearted winter, more mild hearted. The PM shots have been downgraded whilst the TM shots are now in ascendence:

 

GFS:   

 

We need an SSW in the Summer if the above is the net result

 

Of course the PM -v- TM battle is fluid so this is not set in stone.

[Timmytour]

4 out of the last 6 Februarys have been below the 81-10 average so actually weve had our fair share of cold in recent years.

We are due a colder February nonetheless.... over the last 18 years it's outside the Champions League of  the top four coldest months we've experienced...the top four being Dec 2010, Jan 2010, Jan 1997 and March 2013

If February was a football club it would be managed by David Moyes.....I only hope it's swapped him for someone like Mourinho this season!

[TEITS]

Very disappointed with the output this morning. Back in early December I said it was 1-0 to the seasonal models and if the output remains unchanged then its going to be 2-0. I say this because lets remember earlier on there were conflicting forecasts from the seasonal models which predicted a positive NAO, AO to those other forecasts which predicted a negative NAO/AO especially after xmas into Jan.

 

The straw to clutch is the warming of the stratosphere and how this may impact the stubborn PV.