Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

yeah well ive got the white crap , it looks great falling out the sky, huge flakes, plenty of them... but as expected so far its nothing more then a cold slushy mess on the ground.

[snow freak]

well after rain finally turning to snow and starting to settle it has now all but stopped and seems to have turned to light drizzle again even though the forecast was for it to turn increasingly to snow this evening.  so unfair after it finally settling only to then stop.  I think the forecast for it to continue this evening and overnight have been so wide of the mark.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Some people are lucky would like to even see a slushy thin layer not seen any snow since 2012 lol

[snow freak]

I think the likelihood of the UK having reliable snow during the winter are on the way out.  Global warming is seeing to that.  we used to have typically 10 days of lying snow and no we are lucky if we have even a day or two of falling snow let alone lying snow.  very troubling for the future.

[stainesbloke]

yeah well ive got the white crap , it looks great falling out the sky, huge flakes, plenty of them... but as expected so far its nothing more then a cold slushy mess on the ground.

Must be nice to see the flakes coming down but as for the slush....you can keep it, yuck!

[mushymanrob]

Must be nice to see the flakes coming down but as for the slush....you can keep it, yuck!

Tbh since i posted that it is sticking, more then i expected but if it stopped snowing i think itll slowly melt. But my earlier thoughts on it not being much might be misplaced for me locally anyway. Its looking quite picturesque atm...

[Fozfoster]

Tbh since i posted that it is sticking, more then i expected but if it stopped snowing i think itll slowly melt. But my earlier thoughts on it not being much might be misplaced for me locally anyway. Its looking quite picturesque atm...

Enjoy Mushy......

[snow freak]

so after weeks of model watching and anticipating the 'big freeze' all it amounted to was an hour of snow sandwiched in between rain.  if that is all that this sodden little island can muster for what is supposed to be winter then that's me done from now on.  this country is just utter rubbish for any snow and cold whatsoever.

Some people are lucky would like to even see a slushy thin layer not seen any snow since 2012 lol

an hour or so of snow is nowhere near enough throughout the whole winter.  fact our winters are getting more like the southern Mediterranean.

[JOPRO]

so after weeks of model watching and anticipating the 'big freeze' all it amounted to was an hour of snow sandwiched in between rain.  if that is all that this sodden little island can muster for what is supposed to be winter then that's me done from now on.  this country is just utter rubbish for any snow and cold whatsoever.

an hour or so of snow is nowhere near enough throughout the whole winter.  fact our winters are getting more like the southern Mediterranean.

Think they are due snow next week....!!!

[conor123]

so after weeks of model watching and anticipating the 'big freeze' all it amounted to was an hour of snow sandwiched in between rain.  if that is all that this sodden little island can muster for what is supposed to be winter then that's me done from now on.  this country is just utter rubbish for any snow and cold whatsoever.

an hour or so of snow is nowhere near enough throughout the whole winter.  fact our winters are getting more like the southern Mediterranean.

Indeed, outlook is dismal for anything exciting, no doubt were pay for this hour of winter with 6 weeks of washouts again now.

-12 upper's into Rome and -15 upper's into Croatia just sums it up, and shock horror another big freeze over in the US on the way.

Another few week's away from the charts now, writings on the wall.

 

Systems like today always go south last minute usually, can't believe this one decided to go 50 miles north.

Edited December 26, 2014 by conor123

[knocker]

And behold three wise men came out of the east bearing gifts of gold, frankincense and....................................

 

[mushymanrob]

And behold three wise men came out of the east bearing gifts of gold, frankincense and....................................

PMSL!!!

[snow freak]

Think they are due snow next week....!!!

that wouldn't surprise me in the least.  nice in the south of france and Jerusalem seem to get more snow than us these days.

[mushymanrob]

Well my snow is wet mush below a snow topping, pretty much what was expected here.

[MP-R]

I'm hoping the models are having a Christmas Swearing AGAIN-up as I'm not liking the look of them beyond Tuesday next week. Would be typical that a southerly tracking low brings us into a cold pattern with a high that just collapses.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Indeed, outlook is dismal for anything exciting, no doubt were pay for this hour of winter with 6 weeks of washouts again now.

-12 upper's into Rome and -15 upper's into Croatia just sums it up, and shock horror another big freeze over in the US on the way.

Another few week's away from the charts now, writings on the wall.

 

Systems like today always go south last minute usually, can't believe this one decided to go 50 miles north.

To be fair, this low was meant to go a lot North to begin with a few days anyway. Need some kind of pattern change for Southern parts to benefit too.

[Jason M]

Getting a very bad feeling about this winter. Final nails hammered into coffin tonight for any prospects of a 'real deal' cold spell before mid January I'd say. 100% agreement on zonal at days 6/7 and at least ten days from that point.

 

Looks like one of those winters where we just need to hope we squeeze one cold spell worthy of the name.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Yes this winters going the shape of the pear 2014 looks like its gna be snowless imby not seen any snow since 2012/13

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Plenty of snowfall in the heart of the country as the models progged. Shockingly

mild in S England currently at 9c not what the GFS model was showing earlier today at all!!!

Yes this winters going the shape of the pear 2014 looks like its gna be snowless imby not seen any snow since 2012/13

Its called Sod's law

[Eastbourneguy]

So it's not even 2015 and the winter is over... 

 

There were only a few runs that actually showed some major snow opportunities for low levels for the next couple of days.

 

To be honest only really the ECM mean had a strong signal for heights being further North East than what actually verified, not many op runs were actually that wonderful.

A lot ofwasted potential yes but this wasn't a total model let down by any means.

 

ECM, GEM, JMA, ALL show high pressure in the North of the Arctic around +200. So people spouting on about a raging PV setting up are frankly wrong.

 

Both GFS runs actually show more of a centralized High in the Arctic but this is well into FI so just one to watch...

 

We will have a few more bites at the cherry yet =)

[stainesbloke]

Yes, nearly 10C here! Very different to this morning. Wasn't expecting to see any snow but thought the cold air and strong winds would be here by now.

[DAVID SNOW]

Just a little moan in this thread:    since November the models have had us chasing  a Russian high,a Greenland high and a Scandinavian high........ Now the ECM has us chasing an arctic high @240 hours....

[snowsummer]

Winters finally made it to my back yard (thurrock essex). 5mins of heavy rain. A gust of wind and a drop in temperature thats enough to make me close the main bedroom window!! Was fun while it lasted!

[Chris K]

Getting a very bad feeling about this winter. Final nails hammered into coffin tonight for any prospects of a 'real deal' cold spell before mid January I'd say. 100% agreement on zonal at days 6/7 and at least ten days from that point.

 

Looks like one of those winters where we just need to hope we squeeze one cold spell worthy of the name.

 

Final nails hammered into the coffin for a real deal cold spell before mid-Jan? 100% agreement on day 6/7 zonal and at least ten days from that point?

 

Sorry no offence but just like when all models agree on a cold pattern setting up at days 6/7 and prolonging, that can change quite dramatically in only a couple of days due to a multitude of developments that can occur before then, which may have not been initially calculated by the models.

 

You may be right...but it would be a consequence of guessing and due to the UK's position, the higher chance of our prevailing weather conditions going against getting a "real deal" cold spell countrywide.

[meathead]

Getting a very bad feeling about this winter. Final nails hammered into coffin tonight for any prospects of a 'real deal' cold spell before mid January I'd say. 100% agreement on zonal at days 6/7 and at least ten days from that point.

 

Looks like one of those winters where we just need to hope we squeeze one cold spell worthy of the name.

 

Lay off the sherry.The models don't even no what's happening after 3 days so I'm not sure how you can come out with something like this.