Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[stainesbloke]

A very strong and gusty wind has started blowing here from the W-NW...sudden!

I think to write off upcoming weeks of winter is a little foolish, the models have been chopping and changing these last two weeks a lot. Many have seen a decent snowfall tonight. We're not even a third of the way through the season...

Edited December 27, 2014 by stainesbloke

[ReindeerMarmalade]

I distinctly remember ordering snow but all I've had today is rain and now some pretty respectable gusts of wind.

Clearly the way to get snow is reverse psychology - spend a good few weeks bemoaning the very concept of snow in winter and voilà! Snow, whether you want it or not.

Well done to everyone who got snow today

[knocker]

Need to keep a weather eye on this fella

Chart weatherbell

 

[snowsummer]

Morning knocker are you going to be posting on the model output thread again? Ive noticed your absence and miss trying yo follow the charts you put up. I was just beginning to understand and now my learning curves been disrupted!! many thanks

[knocker]

Morning snowsummer. Probably not as, shall we say, my presence in the thread is not encouraged. I'm sure if you select the right posters, and there are quite a few, you can continue on your learning curve. The trick is being selective and there are a number of people who will help if you don't understand something so don't be afraid to ask. All the best with that and don't be afraid to go to the learning area and have a good read,

Edited December 27, 2014 by knocker

[picog]

Will the depression that brought us some snow have any beneficial effects on our weather as it goes down into the continent?

[snowsummer]

Thankyou knocker. Such a shame though as I'm not the only one missing you. The thread seems to becoming full of "one liners" and a lot of nastiness. I wont post on there until im absolutely sure of what im seeing but unfortunately a great many seem to be making it up as they go along and to be honest are ruining it for the newbies like myself. Still. Stumbling upon it last winter sure has given me a great new hobby and a lot more respect for those professionals who strive to give us an accurate forecast!!! Fascinating is an understatement!

[bluearmy]

Some interesting analog years on yesterday's day 11 CPC gfs super ens mean chart

Looking at some of those dates, cant get a much bigger ramp than that . Sadly, the actual mean chart doesn't really look much like what is expected T264.

[knocker]

A quick look at the 06z GFS and particularly the new wunderkind and it seems the main features are the durability of the HP for three or hour days before sliding ESE. This allows the transition of west to east lows with a nasty looking storm (at the moment) by the end of the week which fortunately seems to be on a more NE track with the strong jet running SW to NE. This being at T138 is subject to change as we all have noticed recently.

[joggs]

Weather(excuse the pun)you prefer cold or mild,its fairly bog standard winter fayre coming up from what im viewing on the models(on mobile,cant post charts).

All the talk of Cohens theory,ssw,opi etc have not come to fruition yet and tbh im sick to death of posts saying this will happen and that will happen in 10 days or so.....,

Until the mo mention deep cold i wont be swayed by hopecasting,just my take on things.

Regards all.

[Snowyowl9]

 

 

absolutely karl.... as ido also mentions theres several pm incursions in this mornings runs. it looks like becoming unsettled later this week and beyond, but its average - cold with no mildness currently expected. (except possibly milder on friday). smacks of early 1984 to me, alot of cold zonal with some heavy snowshowers at times (but im prone to cheshire gap streamers when the winds in the northwest).

 

Next weekened shows a 1984 style NW-ly but looks more like a ridge of HP.

Sea temps are too mild from the atlantic.

[dragan]

Weather(excuse the pun)you prefer cold or mild,its fairly bog standard winter fayre coming up from what im viewing on the models(on mobile,cant post charts).

All the talk of Cohens theory,ssw,opi etc have not come to fruition yet and tbh im sick to death of posts saying this will happen and that will happen in 10 days or so.....,

Until the mo mention deep cold i wont be swayed by hopecasting,just my take on things.

Regards all.

Good point well made. Just shows, with all the factors in place, its very rare to get true cold in this part of the world. Also i think 2009/10 has tainted some views, forgetting that was a truly remarkable event.

[mountain shadow]

So, only a couple of weeks until the heart of winter. surely the models must change soon to show the deep cold that has been forecast by a few sites?

[Mapantz]

Not too sure what people are looking at when they mention mild??

 

Of course , what is peoples perception of mild, in terms of temps??  8c upwards??

 

Temps IMBY from GFS6z

 

4c 4c 3c 3c 4c 4 c 5c 4c 2c 1c 5c 6c 4 c 3 c 8c 4c

 

Looks chilly to me .................thankfully

Ironically, the certified coldies are the ones who keep mentioning "nothing mild" in their posts, no one else brings it up.

[Evening thunder]

Just a little moan in this thread:    since November the models have had us chasing  a Russian high,a Greenland high and a Scandinavian high........ Now the ECM has us chasing an arctic high @240 hours....

 

Even looks more like an Alaskan high on many models, hopes now pinned on something the other side of the pole to deliver the goods beyond FI while the models show indifferent or rubbish charts for us lol

 

Maybe, but I have partly allowed myself to be sucked in enough times already. This year there seems to have been a lot of selective posting/believing of the models which paints a better picture than is actually shown on average. I believe there was an Arctic high last winter anyway.

 

Also more slight shortening of the cold snap this week.. 2 sharp frosts before the breeze turns southerly and cloud increases by Tuesday night. I am looking forward to these frosts however, should beat last winter's mins and the almost as bad 2012/13 (for minima).

Edited December 27, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Jason M]

Lay off the sherry.The models don't even no what's happening after 3 days so I'm not sure how you can come out with something like this. 

 

The models have a pretty good handle on things generally out to day 5 and in terms of the overall pattern, out to days 7/8. Thereafter its more looking at trends. That said, I have no great issue with the second part of your sentence as its your opinion and your entitled to it. In relation to your first comment, this maybe says more about you as a person.

 

One more for the 'ignore' list methinks!!

[Jason M]

Final nails hammered into the coffin for a real deal cold spell before mid-Jan? 100% agreement on day 6/7 zonal and at least ten days from that point?

 

Sorry no offence but just like when all models agree on a cold pattern setting up at days 6/7 and prolonging, that can change quite dramatically in only a couple of days due to a multitude of developments that can occur before then, which may have not been initially calculated by the models.

 

You may be right...but it would be a consequence of guessing and due to the UK's position, the higher chance of our prevailing weather conditions going against getting a "real deal" cold spell countrywide.

 

 

Of course it was guessing  , and was made in the full knowledge of our position and climatic norms. Indeed it was made precisely on that basis. It was a 'fact' that there was very strong agreement on zonal from days 6 and 7, and based on the factors you pointed out yourself this has a very high chance of materialising (because the margin for error is so much higher than with a northerly or easterly). Assuming this does materialise then my statement about 10 days from that point is likely to be correct most times.  

 

In summary, yes it was of course a guess. Will I be right, you would be brave to bet against me.

 

If we were talking about mainland Europe, no way could I make that prediction and be confident. For the UK sadly I can.

Edited December 27, 2014 by Jason M

[Sky Full]

Although I enjoy snow as much as anyone (well, perhaps not everyone, Rudolph), I think all those chasing an Arctic bomb just have to face facts - we live in a temperate country and our weather is largely influenced by a huge warmish ocean. The chances of long cold spells of weather are really quite remote and likely to be few and far between. The occurrence of really disruptive cold weather in the past is rare and even when it happens we rarely get more than 48 hours reliable notice from the models. I am always disappointed when winter does not deliver but I console myself in the knowledge that a mild winter helps our struggling wildlife to survive, allows our gardens to grow beautiful tropical plants which would not normally survive this far north, and avoids expensive, often lethal, freeze-ups which other, continental, countries have to endure. Having said all that, hang on to the knowledge that January and February are the most likely months for snow to be widespread, after the North Sea has reached its lowest annual temperature, and in this respect we have nine more weeks to go. The models have absolutely no idea what might happen in this timeframe so I will keep studying the 48-72 hours ahead period for accurate information, and 72 - 384 hours ahead for laughs..... Happy New Year to everyone on this forum and I hope you all get the weather you wish for....

[mushymanrob]

snows thawing in full flow now.... gfs temp predictions wrong again!

[frosty ground]

snows thawing in full flow now.... gfs temp predictions wrong again!

Not here after a slight thaw still a covering which will be here till Tuesday at lest now with the forecast

[stainesbloke]

Although I enjoy snow as much as anyone (well, perhaps not everyone, Rudolph), I think all those chasing an Arctic bomb just have to face facts - we live in a temperate country and our weather is largely influenced by a huge warmish ocean. The chances of long cold spells of weather are really quite remote and likely to be few and far between. The occurrence of really disruptive cold weather in the past is rare and even when it happens we rarely get more than 48 hours reliable notice from the models. I am always disappointed when winter does not deliver but I console myself in the knowledge that a mild winter helps our struggling wildlife to survive, allows our gardens to grow beautiful tropical plants which would not normally survive this far north, and avoids expensive, often lethal, freeze-ups which other, continental, countries have to endure. Having said all that, hang on to the knowledge that January and February are the most likely months for snow to be widespread, after the North Sea has reached its lowest annual temperature, and in this respect we have nine more weeks to go. The models have absolutely no idea what might happen in this timeframe so I will keep studying the 48-72 hours ahead period for accurate information, and 72 - 384 hours ahead for laughs..... Happy New Year to everyone on this forum and I hope you all get the weather you wish for....

Well said! I think some people on here tend to let fantasy, illusion and hope overpower reason and reality and expect mega snow storms every winter. Funnily enough, the UK has never had that climate being so influenced by the huge ocean to our west. I remember some fantastic snowy spells having been born in the early 70's but even in the 70's-80's it wasn't a snow-fest every year.

I have family and friends living in continental climates in Europe and the US and the freezing cold and snows they get every year very quickly loses its appeal. I'm quite happy that we don't see that all winter and that we can actually get out and about a lot. Suits me anyway, having 2 allotments etc.

Saying that, I still like snow here and it can be a lot of fun! Just a shame that it's all taken so seriously sometimes.

[knocker]

Quote from the other thread

 

 

Yes IDO but a weather enthusiast or a met office employee come on now stop trolling

 

I find that quite ironic given the stick the self-appointed experts give the METO so frequently.

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

I am findimg the MOD thread hilarious ! Everyone knocking chunks out of each other!?! Spraying up the walls like a heated springer!! Quite interesting how people continuously contradict themselves based on daily model output. It was 48 hours ago ish that the Easterly was being touted about then the models flipped a bit and to my untrained eyes it now looks like a cold

Few days and then back to PM air. Tomorrow will bring further change and hopefully the easterly will start to re appear on the charts in the coming days. The Daffodils in the garden are hopefully being lured into a false sense of security!!!!

[Smiler1709]

I am findimg the MOD thread hilarious ! Everyone knocking chunks out of each other!?! Spraying up the walls like a heated springer!! Quite interesting how people continuously contradict themselves based on daily model output. It was 48 hours ago ish that the Easterly was being touted about then the models flipped a bit and to my untrained eyes it now looks like a cold

Few days and then back to PM air. Tomorrow will bring further change and hopefully the easterly will start to re appear on the charts in the coming days. The Daffodils in the garden are hopefully being lured into a false sense of security!!!!

Pathetic isn't it, the mood in the mod thread is like a person with manic depression, one minute there calling off winter next there predicting the next ice age

[snowsummer]

Anyone fancy posting some model charts on here for me please. Ive steered clear of thread best part of the day but just looked in to find the sniping getting worse and the charts have all but vanished! I know we're all a bit disappointed with the lack of snow/ the lack of sun/the .....etc. but come on...there's toys and prams ..we dont need cowboys and indians!