Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[summer blizzard]

A note of caution about the Boxing Day low which has returned.. experience suggests that almost always these types of lows end up being moved south so you should probably calm down.

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful output this morning and Cohen now saying a SSW might not occur until LATE January.

I think nearly every winter forecast I saw is in danger of a bust.

[picog]

Dreadful output this morning and Cohen now saying a SSW might not occur until LATE January.

I think nearly every winter forecast I saw is in danger of a bust.

Yeah, it's not looking good this morning. Each model appears to have come up with a way of scuppering the UK's cold prospects. It seems there are unkown factors slowing down the development of the SSW. So disappointing, when all years with an OPI of <-1 were associated with cold winters historically. I know there is plenty more time for cold, but it's all been looking so good recently I really believed it would happen. Moral of the story, don't belive it until it's forecast just 24-48 hours away!

[snowblizzard]

Models have been all over the place recently, so there's still time for a flip back to more favourable charts if you're looking for cold/snow?

I still maintain that the best set up for more prolonged cold into UK is when air is sourced from E or NE with Northern Europe in the freezer!

Northerlies or air direct from the Artic always seem fairly short-lived and only really benefit the Northern half of UK

Would love to see charts similar to mid January 1987 with high pressure centred between Iceland and Scandinavia with long stretch Easterlies off the cold continent.

Dream on!

Edited December 20, 2014 by snowblizzard

[Iceaxecrampon]

Game Over?

 

 

 

Game On!

 

 

(at least for the east)

 

Ian

[stainesbloke]

Models have been all over the place recently, so there's still time for a flip back to more favourable charts if you're looking for cold/snow?

I still maintain that the best set up for more prolonged cold into UK is when air is sourced from E or NE with Northern Europe in the freezer!

Northerlies or air direct from the Artic always seem fairly short-lived and only really benefit the Northern half of UK

Would love to see charts similar to mid January 1987 with high pressure centred between Iceland and Scandinavia with long stretch Easterlies off the cold continent.

Dream on!

Have to agree with you, the best true cold is always sourced from the NE or E with a big fat Scandi high that just sits there for days on end, pumping freezing air over us from NE Europe/Russia. I can remember plenty of these set-ups giving many ice days across the UK, which is IMHO a vital precursor to snow, freezing the ground nicely so any precipitation doesn't just turn to slush like it often does here near London. I cannot bear slush! Only in a daiquiri lol. For me, for a snowy spell the temps need to remain below 0C day and night, otherwise I'd rather it just stayed mild/dry.

Although the models are poorer today regarding snow/cold chances, I'm not overly bothered and the huge uncertainty in output just shows anything could happen. Fingers crossed for an 80s style Jan or Feb snowstorm!

Edited December 20, 2014 by stainesbloke

[Hocus Pocus]

Have to agree with you, the best true cold is always sourced from the NE or E with a big fat Scandi high that just sits there for days on end, pumping freezing air over us from NE Europe/Russia. I can remember plenty of these set-ups giving many ice days across the UK, which is IMHO a vital precursor to snow, freezing the ground nicely so any precipitation doesn't just turn to slush like it often does here near London. I cannot bear slush! Only in a daiquiri lol. For me, for a snowy spell the temps need to remain below 0C day and night, otherwise I'd rather it just stayed mild/dry.

Although the models are poorer today regarding snow/cold chances, I'm not overly bothered and the huge uncertainty in output just shows anything could happen. Fingers crossed for an 80s style Jan or Feb snowstorm!

It really depends on your location, an Easterly for the Western half of the country rarely delivers whereas a Greenland high does for all. The last time an Easterly delivered here was February 96 and that was only down to a stalling Atlantic front.

[snowblizzard]

Have to agree with you, the best true cold is always sourced from the NE or E with a big fat Scandi high that just sits there for days on end, pumping freezing air over us from NE Europe/Russia. I can remember plenty of these set-ups giving many ice days across the UK, which is IMHO a vital precursor to snow, freezing the ground nicely so any precipitation doesn't just turn to slush like it often does here near London. I cannot bear slush! Only in a daiquiri lol. For me, for a snowy spell the temps need to remain below 0C day and night, otherwise I'd rather it just stayed mild/dry.

Although the models are poorer today regarding snow/cold chances, I'm not overly bothered and the huge uncertainty in output just shows anything could happen. Fingers crossed for an 80s style Jan or Feb snowstorm!

Concur, I hate wet snow and slushy conditions! Would much prefer dry, milder conditions to any wet snow/slush event.

Sub zero temperatures (at least -2c) and dry powder snow are my dream conditions, but it's so rare nowadays in South of UK!

Edited December 20, 2014 by snowblizzard

[stainesbloke]

Does a Greenland high deliver for all though? Under a northerly many inland areas see hardly any snow, just crisp sunshine which isn't a bad thing by any means but frustrating all the same. I guess it is hard to get cold and snowy synoptics nationwide and you are right, it does depend on where you are located. Hoping we all get to see some true wintry weather this winter.

[Hocus Pocus]

Does a Greenland high deliver for all though? Under a northerly many inland areas see hardly any snow, just crisp sunshine which isn't a bad thing by any means but frustrating all the same. I guess it is hard to get cold and snowy synoptics nationwide and you are right, it does depend on where you are located. Hoping we all get to see some true wintry weather this winter.

For 95% of the UK it does, as winds alternate between NW/N/NE thus giving the bulk of the UK a bite of the cherry. At this moment in time though I'll take a cold spell from any direction with the news in the Strat thread not making for pleasant reading.

[mushymanrob]

Does a Greenland high deliver for all though? Under a northerly many inland areas see hardly any snow, just crisp sunshine which isn't a bad thing by any means but frustrating all the same. I guess it is hard to get cold and snowy synoptics nationwide and you are right, it does depend on where you are located. Hoping we all get to see some true wintry weather this winter.

 

exactly... this is a point that was argued between me (quelle surprise) and west is best about a decade ago.... there was a cold northerly on crimbo day, he got loads of snow showers, i got a bright crisp cold day... he claimed 'victory' because he predicted a white crimbo, i claimed victory because i didnt! lol.

in my central location, northerlies dont deliver snow, northwesterlies can, but most of mine comes from the northeast (not east).

[mushymanrob]

the trend for this season so far, is one of delays and failure to deliver.

the crimbo freeze that was and in some cases still is, expected is delayed, despite promises by the evil rampers (lol) boo..

"theres going to be snow over crimbo for all " all together now... "oh no it isnt"

"oh yes it is"

"oh no it isnt"

"....oh yes it is but its delayed" ...

it really is a pantomime, confident pro-cold posts are being humiliated by ever changing outputs, toys thrown out the pram until the next favoured run builds expectations yet again.

the real cold has always been in fi... and apart from earlier this month its been average or above average , whats the betting decembers cet will be above average?

hints are becoming clear... there is a chance that this winter could be the most frustrating for cold lovers as chance after chance has failed to become reality. no, im not writing off winter, its 3 weeks old (well about 7 if you include the northern blocking and eastern blocking of november that was supposed to bring pattern change......but didnt). maybe one day we will get a cold blast... but in cold winters they tend to deliver, not frustrate.

[Gord]

The mood is very December 2012 in here...

...that's all I'm saying!

[stewfox]

Dreadful output this morning and Cohen now saying a SSW might not occur until LATE January.

I think nearly every winter forecast I saw is in danger of a bust.

 

The overall impression I get from the recent model output is patience is the key

Edited December 20, 2014 by stewfox

[legritter]

Yes patience is certainly the key word to stop us coldies going bananas ,will it wont it ,but certainly looking like an action packed weekend next week 27/29th ,if one was to put faith in GFS ,Tonights ecm run eagerly awaited to see if that produces a deep area of low pressure as the gfs does .just had an eee mail from friends in toronto ,and their weather channel are using the term Weather BOMB  in a new term ,SANTA BOMB ,will our Media latch onto this ,still plenty of interesting charts to keep us interested over coming week or so ,we just need a lowering of pressure from our friend the azores and for pressure to keep on increasing around greenland ,at the end of the day basic high somewhere to our north lower pressure to our south ,simple realy but of course mother nature sometimes has other ideas .well cupboards are well stocked ,candles at the ready ,i,m ready for a good old Block ,    

[stainesbloke]

exactly... this is a point that was argued between me (quelle surprise) and west is best about a decade ago.... there was a cold northerly on crimbo day, he got loads of snow showers, i got a bright crisp cold day... he claimed 'victory' because he predicted a white crimbo, i claimed victory because i didnt! lol.

in my central location, northerlies dont deliver snow, northwesterlies can, but most of mine comes from the northeast (not east).

.

Yes location is important but wind direction more so IMHO. IMBY a northerly very rarely delivers any precip, just sunny cold crisp days (which I like a lot). Of course there have been one or two exceptions to this but the snow that fell didn't amount to much. An easterly however...especially a channel low undercutting a Scandi high....snowmaggeddon!!! Still waiting for that synoptic to materialise. It has been a while!

[summer blizzard]

Same here.. From showers i need a W, NE or E. 

[Carl46Wrexham]

exactly... this is a point that was argued between me (quelle surprise) and west is best about a decade ago.... there was a cold northerly on crimbo day, he got loads of snow showers, i got a bright crisp cold day... he claimed 'victory' because he predicted a white crimbo, i claimed victory because i didnt! lol.

in my central location, northerlies dont deliver snow, northwesterlies can, but most of mine comes from the northeast (not east).

True North westerlies can. What we have had so far (away from Scotland) have been watery showers with pretty average temperatures...pretty meh really. Edited December 20, 2014 by Carl46Wrexham

[clark3r]

I sense there will be upgrades in models tonight! Just have that feeling!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feel there will be no cold spell for south, uppers on GFS are not great, as low is too deep, and swept out the way so fast, the trend I feel to deepen the low, downgrade the cold

 

parallel looks better after the low moves through, mainly cold and settled

[John Snow]

Still time for the South

I only ever do well out of east, northeast, Thames streamers and occasionally a channel low, so nothing to look forward to at the moment for me, but not writing winter off yet, can get snow up to April even May

[MP-R]

Northerlies that turn northwesterly further south are great here for the heavy snow showers scenario. Easterlies are great for getting those temperatures down here as we can avoid the cloudy skies that the east get, followed by a battleground scenario a la 18th Jan 2013, 13th Jan 2010 etc. Channel lows are also great as long as they are far enough north, we were very lucky to get two in a row in Feb 2009.

 

Neither of these seem to be showing the models though so excitement is on hold for the time being.

[Bristawl Si]

Starting to agree with some of Mushy's earlier post.

Yes, i know it's only 20th December but the word used by Mushy, "frustrating", is v apt.

Sorry but i cant get excited about the weather so far this winter, just because it's delivered 4 frosts compared to last winter's none.

"Building blocks" - now that's an overused phrase on NW.

Is it going to be a winter of nothingness - seems that way.

Easterlies or south easterlies are fine here if we get a slider approach from S Ireland or a channel low.

[Mapantz]

How many more times, you need to stop taking each Operational as gospel, look at the ENS

I don't see terrier saying it's written in stone? terrier has only said what he thinks.

Ps: Could you pop your location in your profile? Even if it is the same as your username.

[Hocus Pocus]

Starting to agree with some of Mushy's earlier post.

Yes, i know it's only 20th December but the word used by Mushy, "frustrating", is v apt.

Sorry but i cant get excited about the weather so far this winter, just because it's delivered 4 frosts compared to last winter's none.

"Building blocks" - now that's an overused phrase on NW.

Is it going to be a winter of nothingness - seems that way.

Easterlies or south easterlies are fine here if we get a slider approach from S Ireland or a channel low.

That's another one to add to my list of irritating cliches.  :w00t: