[General Model Output Discussion]

most probable outlook to me looks like a continuation of high pressure to the north, southerly jet and low pressure over europe from the early to mid term, with a lobe of the pv over to our far NE possibly being in place for a relead/reinforcement of the cold flow come the middle of the month, with another NE'ly ... I would wager trough disruption not an attack from the atlantic, and the repeating waa involved to pull the high back towards greenland and open the floodgates again from the east wouldnt be too much of a suprise the way this winters going. I dont really see a mild/cold battle developing in the SW - maybe im missing something there

Crazy spell of weather ...

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

lol I just went to get a coffee with the lady, then droped my front door key in the snow. she sat in the car, i felt around in the dark for 20 minutes rifling through the snow with bare hands. lol. i think my fingers will fall off

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

here it comes!

Must go pick up the lady - ill be watching the snowfall like a hawk lol - she thinks I'm mad

good luck all!!!!!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

where Pat ?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I've been looking at that Potsy. Almost looks like a small low there, and also off the sw tip - may well just be local convergences etc though ..

Thanks again Matt. I tried to google but it gave me nothing.

This weather watching has really caught my imagination. When all of the excitement has died down and there is nothing much to talk about on here then I will come back and try to learn all of this properly.

A very light flurry here but nothing on the ground and nothing to write home about.

We've got the summer supercells to come Daisy

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

LOL until spring..

At least the cleaning will be done.

Lol. I'm so lazy at cleaning probably not actualy ...

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Sam what shocked me was Richard was saying there is NO let up in cold weather in sight..

Unless things change :o

cirencester road CLOSED..

Yeah it feels like a different kettle of fish all together this winter - 10 years of model watching on the internet, desperately clutching to a chart at 240h that, just by luck, put us in an easterly fetch for 2 days.. bust after bust after bust .. we had about 1cm of snow here in the dec part of this cold spell - hardly anything, but it lasted for weeks in the shadows, and I would wager now that things are turning serious.

2 foot of snow for a fortnight would certainly separate the hardcore extreme fanatics from those who just have a gap in thier childhood due to unlucky synoptics!

Anywhere decent for sledging by the air baloon? - SW forum sledgefest anyone ? :o

Sam

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I tell you what its great to see falling snow without marginal temps - it feels like we're entering the next phase of this winter with the SW coming onboard. 4ft of level snow in scotland - I wonder how long the snow around here will stay around - looking at the charts it could well be built on.

I remember reading the accounts for 47 & 63 (yip - sorry to drag them up!) - the most striking reading being snow amounts gradualy creeping up around the country. we shall see hey

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

wow....One Foot Is justified..at a slow movement

haha good! my reverse psychology worked

Thats a cracker - we're on for a foot Dogs looking at that

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

here is some VERY heavy PPN heading north /NW at the moment.

This is due to merge with the airmass coming down the country in a SW direction.

As it hit, i would expect the PPN to increase again.

By no means is the flash warning unwarranted.

I wont argue the science with you Lynxus - I can see you like to forecast too and I hope I'm wrong!!. The flash warnings are never unwarranted if there's more than a remote chance of things happening - lives can be lost by forecasters wanting to be too confident before issuing a warning.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I'll stick my neck out and say the NAE will play catch up now, with the heaviest precip staying east of where its forecasted for - not that areas will miss out, just less depth ..

My views are that the MetO quite possibly put too much weight on thier own model - that doesn't mean I disrespect certain members who post in here!

Hopefully I'll be wrong!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

starting to snow here now - pretty big flakes. I take it thats the wrap around just nosing in going by radar.

To me, NAE looks good for here - GFS is taking less of the 700mb lift (vv) around the top of the low and so the same area to be hit, but less precip stretching west .. if we wake up with half the amounts predicted i wont be suprised, but hell its snowcover, so not dissapointed either. If this was scotland with 4ft level snow, id have lost my cats by now!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Hey Pat.

Good question - I dont have a clue lol. I did hear that a low pressure goes in a direction prependicular to its warm front, so I hope we dont get left in marginal temps and less precip, and the damn thing slides east lol.

nah I'm sure its pretty nailed on now - maybe 2 foot instead of 1 ?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

i think its deepened more than modeled too sk (looking at xcweather), so id imagine the next nae will show slightly higher ppn, but a more noticeable mild sector - i could easily be wrong though

[General Model Output Discussion]

I'll drop an update on the developing situation after I've seen the British Isles 09z, unless Nick F does one.

Currently the NMM model is under doing precip amounts for this area, I've had moderate snow since about 0700, not all the time, and its only showing between 1 and 3mm for the whole 24 hour period. Indeed it had none showing over me for the first 2-3 hours. In fast developing situations such as this it is not unusual for this sort of thing to happen.

Anyway update about 100 on developments occurring and how they may affect the southern half of the UK, more specifically south of about Lands to N Yorks.

I'm guessing the low has deepened more than expected looking at xcweather ..

[General Model Output Discussion]

not looking too bad for the west country at the mo going on the latest gfs - the front looses intensity as it passes here (Cirencester), but Lift seems to increase and pep things up as it heads south - I'd imagine the SW peninsula will get a good covering from this ...

sam

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Good post jonesy -

Its an extremely interesting Topic - would love to find out the details but it may well be off purpose for this thread! maybe we can start one ?

I have a suspicion that the first thing to change will be where the mean jetstream troughs sit, with more heat exchange with the pole and more extreme troughing - I believe theres a small chance we're seeing this now, with air racing up the western side of continents, and troughing over the cooler seas - might even explain the warm summers of the late 90's & 00's, then the switch in the last 3 years to a stark dividing line between the continent's heat, and troughing over the BI, along with WAA and northern blocking. Anyway .. completely off topic - sorry mods!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

....and assuming he's doubting the the irrefutable body of peer-reviewed evidence supporting the notion of anthropogenic climate change (and it's real, as any coral reef will sadly attest in probably less than 50yrs time), then it's all the more reason for me to steer clear of such scientific blarney.

The global warming debate has been, after all, informed by genuine scientists who actually publish their work - whatever the critique they receive ( a lot, in certain quarters) - rather than those who use the internet as a scattergun for spreading speculative, scaremongering dross.

I follow you. I sit on the fence with AGW, but thats purely because I dont know both sides of the argument - infact any side to any decision making depth. I still maintain he has a good track record though, and for that fact in isolation he is listened to I believe ...

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Thats taken from www.accuweather.com - Joe laminate floori and his european column, although you may realise this allready. In my opinion yes his presentation needs a bit of brushing up to say the least, but he's on top of his telleconnective forecasting and has a very good track record - a big hitter in the weather world imo. He was forecasting this cold spell before the charts we're, that's for sure, and all forums take note of his blog with a fair bit of weight (Steve Murr has a quote of his as his signature at the moment).

Still .. it is a bit dramatic thats for sure! And he does seem to use his European outlet to rant about the global warming myth

Edit: I see the antiprofanity filter has swapped his sirname with some random text lol! - basicaly fatherless, with an extra 'I' at the end!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

yeah we've got wind moving up the B channel at the moment towards the NE- looks like it adds a degree or two to the temps. Maybe they'll back more westerly as the trough comes through propper - low dp's will come into play when the precip gets to a certain rate, so I wont worry too much here if it starts as rain maybe ..

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

i'd say the showers are moving SE, but the trough itself is moving more due south, so maybe in time -

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

gonna be a close call here in cirencester temp wise!

come on snow! :lol:

Pat, what have you got there?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

cheers Ian - looks great!

Tuesday evening looking good right now (well acording to gfs anyway!) - short wave trough forms a lp on the sw peninsula at 19:00 tuesday, which then slips SW towards brest by 01:00 wednesday placing our area in a tight NE pressure gradient around the low with some nottable ppn - temps marginal in the extreme SW and north coasts maybe to start with, but minima well below 0c being drawn in all the time, even here it should become snow -

I think the fax charts show less development for this feature - showing it as a wave on the main front down in biscay ? - maybe someone who can read this better could fill me in though. I'm also not sure how this low actualy forms - theres no jet entrance/exit - maybe its purely vorticity advection from that trough?

Either way, stunning synoptics for this coming week. Here's to some intense radar/lamppost watching

edit: btw i'm using http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/index.php - GFS HR 0.5 model /..

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

thats had some intense ppn rates for a while PaulT - fingers crossed!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

thanks Ian.

I dont know what the sst's are currently in the irish sea/off scotland, but given the predicted 850 temps and the wind direction in the middle of next week, maybe a polar low running down the irish sea isn't entirely out of the question.. 850's of -9 & sst's of 6c would do it id imagine ..

Don't get excited though everyone - you'll learn I dont really know what I'm talking about!