fergieweather
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Posts posted by fergieweather
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Now, I like the sound of that! I'm also a commuter though and the brief cm of snow we got on Wednesday morning screwed the trains up (ridiculous!), but it's something i'm willing to put up with.
Well, you may well find something similar to greet you into rush-hour tomorrow am too
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Incidentally as an aside - latest modified NAE and UKV continues to paint interesting story re some snow into early tomorrow AM easing down from N England to Chilterns / E Anglia / SE.
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That would actually tie in fairly well with what the ECM32 has been showing regularly over the last couple of weeks.
Absolutely - and as also repeatedly hinted at in UKMO MR trend standpoint. The wide spread in EC12z members by next weekend, after the significantly colder spell well-signalled until at least Thursday, does beg many questions as to how things will evolve by end of next working week - let alone further on by 20/21st, when (much akin to EC Monthly), the EC ensembles offer another meaningful cluster suggestive of Greenland blocking. A highly dynamic state of affairs into the medium range, for sure, and I'd not want to sit in the MR chair at Ops Centre, Exeter, trying to pen some focused sense from things (as they stand now) post next mid-week onwards.
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Its the progged weak High over central Europe that is stopping the Shortwave to our SW traversing east and undercutting the Higher pressure
to the north. If it did, it would drag the low over southern Sweden SW into the North Sea down towards the South East of England.
yup
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Yeah, the raw UKMO-GM looks quite interesting really, as we head out into +6 days territory. Anyway - miles away; we'll see.
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there seems the possibility of some snow in wales too @fergieweather just to point that out incase you have dissowned us!!!! lol
Question was specifically directed at how the GFS prog shaped-up for areas to SE ersus our high-res suite - hence focus of my reply
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Final piece of crucial wisdom in MR guidance just issued from Exeter: "...confidence in developments from Monday onwards remains very low....". Having seen their full analysis this caveat sentence is, rest assured, well founded: they're leaning towards EC with latest modifications but let's see where the next few EC runs take us to offer better continuity on some critical nuances Exeter highlight versus UKMO-GM and MOGREPS.
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Am anticipating a key step change in UKMO modified output and will update on this before midnight when the 4-5d full analysis is with us. Interesting times, folks.
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Just as an aside, were the ECM to come to fruition, we may be out of the here is some snow and frost and isnt it fun, into something that could be a little more threatening for some.
... and especially so for the elderly, with demonstrable mortality rise in previous such scenarios, plus dreadful news for many businesses; for ordinary folk trying to go about daily lives; for those trying to combat and recover from recent flooding woes; and for varied wildlife after a dismal summer. So rest assured, just as many of our viewership will pray that something as extreme as the EC12z doesn't become reality as those who do, because for many it's not a funny snowfest yahoo but a deadly serious matter. And rest assured, if a few days of EC runs shape-up something of that magnitude, the UKMO will tell loudly of such - not least given it's key role in shaping NHS Cold Weather alert status and contingency amongst governmental departments. We're nowhere close to that yet and I doubt we'll be until successive analyses of EC and MOGREPS output through the weekend.
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It's a good video IMO. not discounting options and making public aware of snowy potential. I should hope by this weekend we know what way it will swing, but it is, as it stands, more likely to be cold.
That's precisely our rationale with it until we see proper grasp on developments into early next week. We can't afford to ramp easterly until a clear done deal.
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Even still.. baffles me how quick people are to jump on whether there will be a slack flow, a NE,E or SE. Either way, it's a week away and the outcome is still quite uncertain beyond T+96
Indeed. Just chatting it through with UKMO. They're still yet to be convinced on the broader evolution and scope of easterly (or not) given the uncertainties early next week to get things up and running (as emphasised by their own GM, albeit we await the modified version), so genesis thereafter open still to innumerable caveats. In short: they sit on the fence - at least right now - as to how things will shape-up into Monday-Tuesday given model divergence, and this profoundly impacts whatever happens thereafter. EC12z awaited with interest by them.
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Can't reply to anymore queries re what-where as it would require posting UKV mapped output!! Stress innumerable uncertainties remain given variants of UKV, MOGREPS-R, NAE, GM & EC output on snow areal coverage. However the eastern bias looks more firmly set. 18z UKV a quite marked escalation re potential to N - NW of London and hence tricky forecast issues re possible impacts.
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Latest update continues focus to E with significant escalation to N-NW of London but with innumerable uncertainties remaining
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Ok: hot off press: based on new UKV, which represents quite a marked escalation, we are upping snowfall issues to 5cm plus in areas N of London, especially Herts, Bucks, Beds, across Chilterns to Oxon. Concern now re potential disruptive impacts tomorrow AM.
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On right well that's earlier than thought .
I'm guessing as it reacts with the troughs almost anything can happen , ie increase in size and intensity, or neither !
Well, the diurnal temperature fall obviously plays a key part but actual settling into early am anywhere will also have a ppn intensity component to bring WBFL right down to the deck for more prolonged phases of snowfall
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Thanks for all your insight Ian , your a big help to us weather freaks ! When you hinted that it could be 2cm or more , did you mean the uncertainties are not just the areas affected, but it actually may be a lot more troublesome than first thought? Sorry to ask .
Both, albeit highest totals progged in any of the 4km suite only tallying 3cm to spot 5cm near London; dusting at most for many but we give 2-3cm a 30% prob based on MOGREPS-R running off NAE, but broad areal scope makes detail impossible in local forecasts
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Exactly. It's falling as snow now into Nottingham area towards Derbyshire
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Is there a reason that the front isn't showing up on Netweathers radar as anything other than showers?
This is the current image:
Because it activates with shortwave trough from W later and that's part of the forecast complexity
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What low temperature would you like to have a punt at for wednesday night fergie?
4Km progs -4 to -6
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Heavy rain (I can't see anything in my lamp post) temp 1.8c
Mustn't confuse the trough showers from W currently with the occlusion and colder dig from north into tomorrow AM. Re Thursday-Fri, we don't anticipate much wintry element here: a rain event almost or wholly exclusively
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V V quick comment re snow tonight - tomorrow AM. New output from UKV, MOGREPS, NAE and EC offering varied solution(s) and huge uncertainty now in areal scope and amounts - i.e., SE / Home Counties / London area / SE could see more in some new progs (2cm or more in places) whereas other solutions in the suite suggest more focus to NW of London (Chilterns, over to Cotswolds etc). MOGREPS more widespread across fair swathe of central-S England. Signal now hinting towards a more easterly bias generally, away from W Country other than E Glos / N Wilts, but this detail not to be trusted. Hence much, much to play for. A nightmare forecast frankly. Anyway, gotta dash.
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An interesting enough prognosis in our model suite for many into tomorrow AM on the potential snow front, so don't panic about the long-term...! ;-
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Yup, interesting set-up tomorrow AM. More on this, with very latest thinking from UKMO, in this eve's Points West
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Hear, hear, there will be no red faces no matter the outcome though I don't think the poster meant it in such a bad way.
(Mods: apols, not off-topic as this underpins all debate on this thread!):
Agreed, wasn't suggesting such. All I'm reflecting is that anyone prepared to offer reasoned, scientifically-based and crucially, openly explicit hypothesis on either near-term forecast (as UKMO staff do daily) or longer-range (as GP does) deserve credit. Anyone who has ever submitted a scientific paper for publication in any discipline can attest to the stress when it enters peer review, but this key process is what delineates between true scientific endeavour versus the charlatans and poseurs. For this very reason, I truly despair when I see ill-informed, vitriolic anti-UKMO rhetoric on forums levelled against people who work hard to advance meteorology in the face of day-by-day public and media scrutiny and critique. Arguably, no other scientific discipline faces such barrage with such daily regularity.
Back to the models (thanks, Mods!)
Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A key driver by next Tuesday will be vorticity pulses aloft running S in the flow, with resultant threat of more organised snow shower activity / consolidation and a westward extension of these into wider parts of southern UK. EC's shortwave on Tuesday, for example, is a case in point albeit runs-through earlier compared to UKMO suite, which heightens the threat of snow more markedly later Tuesday.