kate1
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Posts posted by kate1
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Think a Facebook group is a great idea - and at least now we know we are not alone! I'm still too embarrassed to tell my husband why I rush to the window periodically in winter in the middle of the night - have told him that the foxes are at the bins again...am hoping there will be a lot of 'foxes' around over the next few days/weeks...
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Am a little (no, a lot) bit concerned at the BBC website forecast for Tunbridge Wells showing no snow AT ALL over the weekend and rain on Monday... I know it's been said many times that they are inaccurate but on the other hand they must be getting their information from somewhere... It's true that none of the models seem to suggest this and the MetO certainly don't. But how could they be so wrong? Any reassurance will be much appreciated!
Its because its comes OVERNIGHT....the BBC charts your talking about only show DAYTIME weather...sio it shows cloudy Sat daytime and a cloudy Sun daytime, missing out the snowfall overnight.
Many thanks for this - what an eejit I am! I have always been puzzled by the weather shown on this BBC page as it often bore no relationship to other forecasts but now all is explained! Deep snow - oh I do hope so - bring it on!
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Am a little (no, a lot) bit concerned at the BBC website forecast for Tunbridge Wells showing no snow AT ALL over the weekend and rain on Monday... I know it's been said many times that they are inaccurate but on the other hand they must be getting their information from somewhere... It's true that none of the models seem to suggest this and the MetO certainly don't. But how could they be so wrong? Any reassurance will be much appreciated!
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Its given me a sore throat!
Me too! Just assumed I was coming down with a cold but I guess it could well be due to the dryness of the air - hadn't thought of that. Air conditioning does the same thing.
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This is getting silly now, -1.2C here, clear skies all night and light winds, but no frost again, c'mon.
might be because humidity is too low.Yes, it is - the air is unusually dry and the dew point is extremely low. Hopefully if we get a bit of snow in the next few days it will make up for the lack of whiteness on the ground now!
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Well, Kaddy has just predicted snow for tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday in no uncertain terms...the most definite BBC prediction I have seen so far...think it really is going to happen this time...
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Have to say, major credit due to local hero Steve Murr for making a fantastic, prescient call this morning on what the models would begin to show tonight - think everyone on the MOD forum thought he'd taken leave of his senses (including me) - but looks like he spotted something everyone else missed...
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Feeling really icy now as the breeze starts to strengthen...I am not so sure that we should write winter off just yet. This morning there are slightly more positive signs as the models begin to get to grips with this incredibly complex set of circumstances. Just one day's snowfall would be lovely - don't personally care if it settles for weeks! One thing does worry me though - if this cold spell is prolonged, will it kill off all the trees/plants which began to grow and flower way too early in January? We have had camellias here in full bloom for a couple of weeks and the daffodils are well on their way - can't think snow is going to do them a lot of good.
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It is 'snowing' very, very lightly here in Tunbridge Wells - tbh would not dignify it with the name 'snow'... It is barely visible against the background of the grey murk. The MetO and Netweather are forecasting snow for me this afternoon, but if it is more of the same I will contain my excitement. Am seriously considering moving to Bulgaria...
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BBC is now saying light snow for my part of Kent (West) for both today and tomorrow - doesn't seem to be showing on the MetO website though, but this hasn't yet been updated.
Btw, as a noob would like to thank everyone for all their contributions to the forums (and on occasion for inducing the odd
nervous breakdown) - suspect it will be many years before I have the courage to post in the MOD forum, but you are all helping me to begin - just about - to understand the basics...After years of lamppost watching at least I now have some scientific knowledge of what is going on and why - mind you, after the last couple of weeks, not sure that is such a good thing...blissful ignorance is a lot less stressful... But I think I'm hooked now!
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The MetO have now updated their 16-30 day outlook too... Stating two likely scenarios, one with above average temps and rain, the other - a coldie's dream! Take your pick!
The MetO have now updated their 16-30 day outlook too... Stating two likely scenarios, one with above average temps and rain, the other - a coldie's dream! Take your pick!
Mulzy, you beat me to it.
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This indicates that the Met have binned outputs such as the GFS. This I do not blame them for as they have obviously grown tiresome of its inconsistency.
Think we should all have done the same thing a couple of weeks ago and saved ourselves a lot of anguish!
This seems to be the most positive the MetO have been this winter about the prospect of real cold. Which leads me, as a newbie, to ask: now that they have said this, what changes are we ( hopefully) likely to see in the models in the coming days, if this prediction is to verify within the suggested timescale?
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Advantage GFS is a strong term that I used, but the fact that the notoriously in-consistent GFS is being so consistent worries me a little. That being said, I 100% hope its not right and still think the ECM is the better model. Its just a nagging thought in the back of my mind.
I know what you mean -hence the fact that I'm awake at this ungodly hour! Good news if the UKMO are moving towards the ECM though. I suspect in the morning we will see a compromise somewhere between the UKMO and the ECM, with the GFS out on a bizarre limb - hope so anyway.
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Ouch. For my money the 0z ECM needs to be well supported in the ensembles and showing the same synoptics as last night or else it'l be advantage GFS. This is the most consistent output ive seen the GFS give for sometime now, which is probably the most worrying thing.
Not sure why you say 'advantage GFS' - perhaps it is just consistently wrong...
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I'm very new to all this so please be patient... But from what I see so far this evening it seems to me that the GFS has backtracked more than the ECM?
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Just wanted to wish everyone a very merry Christmas - and as a newcomer both to this forum and to studying the models, I also wanted to say THANK YOU to everyone who posts here. It's a steep learning curve but you are all making it so much easier - and providing plenty of entertainment along the way!
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Apparently the Met office have now issued an Amber warning for rain and high winds from 4 pm but it still isn't showing on their website...
might be because humidity is too low.
London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 6
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
How posh are you???